Travis Etienne is Overvalued

Christian Williams's Travis Etienne is Overvalued Christian Williams Published 08/06/2023

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"I think we could use him more. He's a really good runner. We were talking about that as a staff this morning, on how we can utilize him a little bit more and maybe take some off of Travis just a little bit."

Doug Pederson had that to say about JaMycal Hasty in November 2022. Etienne had come off a 30-touch performance - one of his career-best games - and fantasy managers were ecstatic. Etienne finished Week 9 as the RB3 overall, scoring 26 fantasy points and establishing himself as a workhorse in the second week after James Robinson's departure. He carried the ball 28 times in Week 9.

He combined for 26 carries in the following three games. His highest carry total through the rest of the season was 22. He didn't receive 30 touches another time that season. Thirty touches is a lot - most running backs don't reach that total once through a season. But committee backfields are the driving force in Doug Pederson's ideologies, and every action following that Week 9 performance indicates he desires a return to his roots. But fantasy managers are drafting Etienne as if he's the workhorse, boosting his Average Draft Position to RB13 in the third or early-fourth rounds of drafts. However, three key factors indicate that a potential return on investment could leave managers disappointed.

  • Doug Pederson's affinity for committee backfields
  • Tank Bigsby's arrival
  • Etienne's inefficiencies when deployed as a committee back

Doug Pederson & the Committee Backfield

Despite pulling Etienne back following that 30-touch performance, Doug Pederson still put more on him than he prefers, if history is any indicator. Pederson almost exclusively deploys committee backfields, with the height of that philosophy frustrating Miles Sanders's managers during his stint in Philadelphia.

Year Team RB1 RB1 Attempts RB1 Targets RB1 Rush% RB1 Target%
2013 KC Jamaal Charles 263 95 62.77% 17.40%
2014 KC Jamaal Charles 205 52 53.66% 11.58%
2015 KC Charcandrick West 185 36 41.95% 7.10%
2016 PHI Ryan Mathews 155 14 37.08% 2.51%
2017 PHI LeGarrette Blount 202 8 38.26% 1.28%
2018 PHI Josh Adams 121 13 28.88% 2.03%
2019 PHI Miles Sanders 193 67 42.98% 11.19%
2020 PHI Miles Sanders 164 50 46.20% 9.31%
2022 JAX Travis Etienne 220 45 47.72% 7.08%
Career N/A Average 189.78 42.22 44.39% 7.72%
Year Team RB2 RB2 Attempts RB2 Targets RB2 Rush% RB2 Target%
2013 KC Knile Davis 88 21 21.00% 3.85%
2014 KC Knile Davis 134 22 35.08% 4.90%
2015 KC Spencer Ware 88 6 19.95% 1.18%
2016 PHI Darren Sproles 94 63 22.49% 11.31%
2017 PHI Jay Ajayi 112 20 21.21% 3.21%
2018 PHI Wendell Smallwood 105 36 25.06% 5.63%
2019 PHI Jordan Howard 119 13 26.50% 2.17%
2020 PHI Boston Scott 80 31 22.54% 5.77%
2022 JAX James Robinson 81 11 17.57% 1.73%
Career N/A Average 100.11 24.78 23.49% 4.42%
Year Team RB3 RB3 Attempts RB3 Targets RB3 Rush% RB3 Target%
2013 KC Cyrus Gray 11 11 2.63% 2.01%
2014 KC De'Anthony Thomas 13 30 3.40% 6.68%
2015 KC Jamaal Charles 71 27 16.10% 5.33%
2016 PHI Wendell Smallwood 77 12 18.42% 2.15%
2017 PHI Corey Clement 80 24 15.15% 3.85%
2018 PHI Corey Clement 68 25 16.23% 3.91%
2019 PHI Boston Scott 67 29 14.92% 4.84%
2020 PHI Corey Clement 21 6 5.92% 1.12%
2022 JAX JaMycal Hasty 50 28 10.85% 4.40%
Career N/A Average 50.89 21.33 11.51% 3.81%

Etienne's workload exceeded the traditional No. 1 option in a Pederson-led offense, with only Jamaal Charles in 2013 - Pederson's first year as offensive coordinator of the Chiefs - exceeding his raw carry total. James Robinson and JaMycal Hasty came in under the attempt averages, but the Jaguars deployed the former as a critical piece in the committee until his departure following Week 7. Robinson averaged 11.6 attempts and over a catch per game in his seven games with the team. Robinson never seemed fully healthy and was reasonably inefficient, making him expendable, which led to his trade to New York. Still, the intent to deploy a committee was clear for the season's first seven weeks.

We'll discuss Etienne's performance within that seven-week sample later, but opportunities are the most critical indicators of running back performance. Volume is king. The average top-13 running back over the last five years receives 289 touches. Tarik Cohen's 170 touches in 2018 resulted in a top-12 finish, but that was on the back of 71 receptions for 725 yards, an unrealistic receiving workload within the Jaguars' offense. If the Jaguars were to deploy a committee backfield similar to the seven-week sample, Etienne would not reach 200 touches - a problem for his fantasy ceiling. And when factoring in the talent of the new rotation piece, it's difficult to see a path toward a bell cow workload.

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