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The Detroit Lions made a surprising move when they picked Jahmyr Gibbs as the #12 pick in the NFL Draft. Gibbs was on the radar for a late Round 1 pick, but no one thought he would go so high. The team later traded D’Andre Swift, which increased the excitement around the rookie. So, what can we expect from him in Year One? Currently, he's being drafted in the 4th round as RB14, which is a great deal for a back with the potential to be a league-winner in PPR leagues. It's not unheard of for rookie running backs to have top-10 fantasy seasons. Usually, a star fantasy running back catches a lot of passes, has elite talent, or a combination of the two.

Here are the rookie backs who have made it into the Top 10 since 2017:

• 2017 - Alvin Kamara RB3 - 19.2 FPTS/G (289.60)
• 2017 - Kareem Hunt RB4 - 19.0 FPTS/G (285.7)
• 2017 - Christian McCaffrey RB8 - 14.5 FPTS/G (218.20)
• 2017 - Leonard Fournette RB9 - 17.7 FPTS/g (212.60)
• 2018 - Saquon Barkley RB3 - 24.1 FPTS/G (361.60)
• 2019 - none
• 2020 - Jonathan Taylor RB7 - 15.3 FPTS/G (214.40)
• 2021 - Najee Harris RB3 - 18.2 FPTS/G (291.20)
• 2022 - none

The 2023 season presents an intriguing opportunity for both Bijan Robinson and Gibbs to finish in the top 10 among running backs because of their talent. While Bijan Robinson is already being valued at his peak potential, Gibbs represents a more enticing value proposition. In current redraft leagues, targeting Gibbs as your RB2 or even as an RB1 in conjunction with a wide receiver-focused strategy can pay dividends.

Gibbs possesses elite talent and stands out, particularly for his pass-catching ability, which adds an extra dimension to his fantasy value. With his dynamic skill set, there is a strong possibility that Gibbs could finish the 2023 season as a top-5 running back. This production level would greatly exceed his current draft position and give fantasy managers a significant advantage.

With his combination of talent, versatility, and the opportunity for a high volume of touches in the Lions offense, he has the potential to be a game-changer and a valuable asset for your fantasy team. Let's talk about why he is currently one of the best values at the running back position.

Scouting Report

Gibbs's versatility extends beyond his exceptional pass-catching abilities. During his time at Georgia Tech, he showcased his adaptability in various rushing schemes and formations. In the Yellow Jackets' offense, Gibbs saw action out of both shotgun and pistol formations, allowing him to thrive in different offensive strategies. The Georgia Tech offensive system incorporated both zone and gap schemes in its rushing attack, providing Gibbs with valuable experience in different running styles. Whether it was running in a zone-blocking scheme that emphasizes reading and reacting to the defense or executing gap schemes that involve pulling blockers and hitting predetermined holes, Gibbs demonstrated his versatility and adaptability as a runner. Additionally, Gibbs's role as a pass catcher was not limited to simple check-downs or swing passes. He was involved in more complex passing concepts, including go routes, angle routes, and swing passes out of the shotgun formation. This versatility as a receiver allowed him to contribute in various ways and created mismatches for the defense. Here is an example of how he was utilized in the Georgia Tech offense:

Georgia Tech RB Jahmyr Gibbs hurdles into the end zone for a go-ahead touchdown. pic.twitter.com/xE0Eaycu2c

— The Comeback (@thecomeback) October 10, 2020

Gibbs's skill set makes him a nightmare for opposing defenses, particularly when deployed in open space. His exceptional speed allows him to outmatch linebackers in terms of quickness, and his elusiveness makes it extremely difficult for defenders to bring him down in one-on-one situations. Coaches recognize his potential as a game-changing weapon, as demonstrated by Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, who made a concerted effort to involve Gibbs in the passing game and utilize his explosiveness. Here’s an example of the type of explosiveness from his 2022 season with Alabama that we could expect from him on the Lions and in this passing attack:

👀👀👀 @Jahmyr_Gibbs1

📺 @SECNetwork
📱https://t.co/a1346IORpt pic.twitter.com/xRMZmjNikq

— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) September 17, 2022

With the Detroit Lions and their passing attack, Gibbs has the potential to be utilized similarly and create explosive plays on a regular basis. Whether he's catching passes out of the backfield, lining up as a slot receiver, or taking handoffs on designed runs, Gibbs's explosiveness and agility make him a dynamic threat who can break games wide-open.

Gibbs's exceptional lateral agility set him apart in college football, showcasing his quick footwork and elusiveness, making him a difficult target to tackle. His ability to change directions with ease and maintain his slipperiness adds another layer of complexity for defenders trying to track him down. However, Gibbs's success as a runner goes beyond his physical attributes. His patience and vision are crucial components of his running style. He demonstrates a keen understanding of how to wait for blocks to develop, allowing his offensive linemen to create openings for him. By reading the field and setting up would-be tacklers, Gibbs maximizes his potential to make defenders miss and bursts through the holes that his blockers have created.

This combination of lateral agility, quick feet, patience, and vision makes Gibbs a highly intelligent runner who consistently finds ways to evade defenders and exploit gaps in the defense. These qualities contribute to his ability to generate positive yardage and break off big runs.

Throughout his college career, Gibbs proved to be a versatile offensive weapon both as a runner and a receiver. He accumulated 2,132 rushing yards on 383 carries, showcasing his ability to find running lanes and gain positive yardage on the ground. Additionally, Gibbs excelled in the passing game, recording 1,212 receiving yards on 103 receptions. These impressive numbers demonstrate Gibbs' productivity and effectiveness as an all-around offensive threat. As he transitions to the NFL with the Detroit Lions, there is optimism that Gibbs will continue to showcase his versatility and contribute to the game's rushing and passing aspects.

Offensive Line/Offensive Scheme Fit

The Detroit Lions have a formidable offensive line, which significantly enhances the potential success of a running back like Gibbs. This unit, considered one of the best in the league, is anchored by talented individuals such as Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow, and Penei Sewell, all of whom were first-round picks. Their presence brings a high level of skill and experience to the line.

The return of Jonah Jackson and Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who missed the entire 2022 season due to injury, adds further strength to the offensive line. Vaitai's impact, in particular, cannot be overlooked. Standing at an imposing 6-foot-6 and weighing 328 pounds, he provides a powerful presence that bolsters the Lions' run- and pass-blocking capabilities. In 2021, when he was healthy, Vaitai did not allow a sack and had career-high run-blocking and pass-blocking grades.

With the potential for Vaitai's continued good health, the Lions offensive line has the potential to rank among the best in the NFL. A dominant offensive line creates favorable running lanes and offers superior protection for the quarterback, which sets the stage for Gibbs to excel in the Lions' offensive scheme. His skills as a runner and receiver, combined with the strong blocking up front, should lead to increased opportunities and productivity for Gibbs in the Detroit offense.

Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson made an immediate impact in his first year at the helm, transforming the team's offense into a top-five unit in the league. Under his guidance, the Lions experienced significant improvements across multiple offensive categories, showcasing Johnson's ability to maximize the team's offensive potential.

In 2022, the Lions offense ranked fifth in the NFL in points scored, averaging 26.6 points per game. This substantial increase in scoring output reflects Johnson's effective play-calling and game-planning. Additionally, the team ranked fourth in total yards, demonstrating their ability to move the ball effectively and gain substantial offensive yardage. Notably, the Lions also made strides in their passing attack, finishing eighth in the league in passing yards. Johnson's offensive scheme likely played a significant role in this improvement, showcasing his ability to design and execute a successful passing game.

Under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the Lions showcased a balanced and efficient offensive attack that involved both the passing and rushing game. Johnson's emphasis on play-action and running the ball on first down contributed to the team's success in the rushing department. On 1st-and-10 situations, the Lions prioritized running the ball, as evidenced by their 216 rushing attempts. According to NFL.com, they averaged an impressive 4.9 yards per carry on those attempts, ranking ninth in the league in yards per carry on 1st-and-10. Additionally, their total rushing yards on 1st-and-10 ranked eighth in the league, indicating their ability to generate positive yardage and sustain drives. The Lions' success in the rushing game was further highlighted by their rankings in total rushing yards (11th) and yards per carry (15th) for the season. They also excelled in short-yardage situations, demonstrating their effectiveness in converting crucial downs. They were top-5 in both short-yardage attempts and short-yardage success rates.

D’Andre Swift averaged 5.7 YPC on his 45 carries on 1st-and-10, while Jamaal Williams hit 4.8 YPC on 121 attempts. While many analysts think that those short-yardage carries will only go to David Montgomery, Gibbs has shown he can handle the workload inside throughout his college career. He also is the big play threat, and those first-down carries have the potential to be game-changing plays because of his explosiveness and vision. That's also not taking into account that the Lions gave running backs 115 targets, with Swift earning a 13% target share. Even sharing time with David Montgomery in that backfield, Gibbs could see almost 250 touches, if not more. Add that to his explosiveness and the fact that he’s the second-best offensive weapon on that team; that could be his floor in 2023.

Upside/Downside

Here at Footballguys, we have a new rankings feature called Upside/Downside. Understanding this feature is key when going into rankings, so here is the definition: Think of "Upside" and "Downside" as a "Range of Outcomes". Or as "Ceiling and Floor". A top-rated player has little room to go anywhere upwards from where they're ranked. A bottom-rated player has little room to go down from where they're ranked.

Gibbs's upside in fantasy for the 2023 season is significant, with a rating of 3.1 out of 5. The Lions offense is poised to be one of the most fantasy-friendly units in the NFL, and Gibbs will have a pivotal role in it. With Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games, Gibbs should see an immediate increase in usage starting from Week 1. Looking at Jared Goff's check-down tendencies, his check-down rate hovers around 6.5%, which is average among NFL quarterbacks. However, considering the offensive scheme and the lack of other viable options for check-down passes, Gibbs will likely be the primary beneficiary of those short dump-offs. The Lions invested premium draft capital in Gibbs, indicating their commitment to utilizing his talents effectively. Furthermore, underlying factors such as egos and the desire to validate the team's selection suggest Gibbs will be involved extensively in the offense early and frequently. It's important to note that Gibbs also possesses league-winning upside if David Montgomery were to suffer an injury. In such a scenario, Gibbs would step into a high-volume role as the lead back and could deliver RB1 overall production. This potential upside, combined with his current average draft position (ADP), makes him one of the best upside picks in fantasy.

The downside for Gibbs in fantasy is rated at 2.0 out of 5, primarily due to his status as a rookie and the potential for a timeshare with David Montgomery. Some analysts have raised concerns about Gibbs splitting touches with Montgomery, pointing to Jamaal Williams' usage in the red zone last season as a basis for projecting similar carries for Montgomery. However, assuming that Gibbs will not receive ample goal-line opportunities in this offense may be a mistake.

There is a reason why the Bears opted to let Montgomery leave in free agency, and part of that decision was the fact he was being outplayed by Khalil Herbert, who is nowhere near the prospect that Gibbs is. Talent alone could push Gibbs to a heavier role as the season progresses.

Nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding Gibbs's role and workload does impact his average draft position (ADP) relative to a fellow rookie running back like Bijan Robinson. Fantasy managers may be more cautious when drafting Gibbs due to the potential timeshare and the unknown factors associated with a rookie's transition to the NFL.

Considering both the upside and downside when evaluating Gibbs as a fantasy asset is essential. While his talent and potential are undeniable, the presence of a veteran like Montgomery and the adjustment period for a rookie introduce some level of risk. Fantasy managers should assess their risk tolerance and roster construction strategy when deciding whether to target Gibbs in their drafts, and it's the exact reason the feature was included in the rankings. Gibbs presents an upside risk as either the first RB taken or as a high-upside RB2 with league-winning potential.

Projections

Final Thoughts

Gibbs indeed offers tremendous upside and represents excellent value at his current ADP. With the combination of his talent, situation, and potential role in the Lions offense, he has the opportunity to achieve top-12 production right out of the gate. His situation is highly favorable, benefiting from a strong offensive line, a potentially top-10 offensive scheme, and the versatility to contribute in both the rushing and passing game.

As a fantasy manager, targeting Gibbs at his RB14 price allows you to build a flexible and well-rounded roster. By securing him as your RB2, you create a dynamic duo with a mix of reliability and high-ceiling potential. This strategy enables you to invest in safer and more established assets early in the draft, providing a solid foundation for your team. Gibbs, with his league-winning potential, can be the catalyst that propels your team to fantasy success in 2023. In comparison to other rookie running backs like Bijan Robinson, Gibbs offers a better value proposition. While Robinson is priced at his ceiling, Gibbs presents an opportunity to acquire a high-ceiling running back at a more affordable cost. This strategic approach allows you to secure other reliable assets earlier in the draft and take advantage of Gibbs' potential breakout season.

Ultimately, drafting Gibbs provides the chance to bolster your team's chances of finishing in the money and competing for a fantasy championship in 2023. His combination of talent, situation, and value makes him a prime target in drafts.

Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @Daboys_22 if you want to reach me for any fantasy questions, and check out my archive with Footballguys!