"Garrett possesses a tremendous work ethic, displaying excellent practice habits and extraordinary natural talent. His lateral quickness is truly remarkable, and he boasts impressive speed, running the forty-yard dash in the 4.3s. It's evident that he possesses a comprehensive set of skills. I am thrilled to be here, assisting in his development, although it's worth noting that he already possesses a high level of proficiency."

Related: See the subscriber Spotlight for Amon-Ra St. Brown here >>>

Aaron Rodgers recently expressed his admiration for Garrett Wilson during a Rise and Schein podcast episode, comparing the second-year receiver's character to that of Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and James Jones. Wilson's abilities immediately caught the attention of the future Hall of Famer despite him being on the verge of only his second year in the NFL. Notably, Wilson showcased his skill set even without Rodgers in 2022.

Among rookie wide receivers, Wilson stood out, leading the pack in receptions and yards, which led to him being awarded the 2022 Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year. This achievement is particularly impressive, given the lackluster performance of the quarterback rotation. Despite the subpar play, Wilson remained productive, although his fantasy output may have been somewhat limited. However, with the addition of Aaron Rodgers and the expected growth of second-year wide receivers, Wilson's potential is limitless. Consequently, he has the opportunity to surpass expectations and potentially outperform his current Average Draft Position of WR9 in the early offseason.

The Aaron Rodgers of it All

While players bear the primary responsibility for their personal growth and improvement, it is crucial not to underestimate the impact of the improved situation in New York. In 2022, the Jets' passing game struggled, despite the presence of a creative offensive scheme that occasionally exploited opposing defenses. Collectively, the Jets quarterbacks completed just 56.9% of their passes for 4,040 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. They managed to score a touchdown on a meager 2.4% of their attempts and averaged a mere 6.4 yards per attempt over 627 throws. Although they ranked 15th in yards per game, their 27th-place ranking in yards per attempt is telling. Furthermore, the team's average passer rating of 75.0 was dead last in the league.

On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers, despite experiencing a slight decline in 2022, performed significantly better than the Jets' quarterbacks.

In 2022, Rodgers showcased his continued excellence in attacking the intermediate areas of the field. He particularly excelled when making throws beyond ten yards and specifically toward the boundaries. His exceptional timing and anticipation have established him as one of the best in the league in this aspect. However, Wilson did not have the opportunity to benefit from this luxury in 2022 due to the offensive scheme employed by Mike LaFleur. Wilson was predominantly utilized between the numbers, limiting his chances to make boundary throws that require precise timing and anticipation. Nevertheless, Wilson's strengths lie in his ability to attack cornerbacks vertically and utilize his exceptional change-of-direction skills on comebacks and routes that break horizontally. While Rodgers is certainly capable of attacking the middle of the field, the introduction of plays that open up the areas where Wilson excels should immediately prove fruitful for both players.

It is worth noting that the specific offensive scheme often influences target distribution and is less dependent on the quarterback alone. However, historically, Rodgers has shown a tendency to favor a primary target.

Although Rodgers' top targets have averaged nearly nine targets per game with a share of less than 24%, 2020 and 2021 stand out as peak usage rates. Rodgers has publicly declared Davante Adams the top receiver in the league, which likely contributed to Adams receiving a significant number of targets during their time together. However, the talented group of weapons available to Rodgers in New York resembles the offensive arsenal he had during his MVP seasons. Wilson's rookie year saw him receive a larger target share compared to the new additions. If Rodgers reverts to the qualities that made him the NFL's best quarterback not too long ago, Wilson's target share could skyrocket, reaching elite status.

Chasing Touchdown Upside

Despite the offense's struggles in scoring touchdowns through the air, Wilson managed to be relatively productive in this category. He accounted for 26.67% of the team's receiving touchdowns, despite the limited number of red zone trips. The Jets ranked 26th in the league in red-zone scoring attempts per game. Nonetheless, three of Wilson's four touchdowns came inside the red zone, showcasing his excellent release on two occasions and his ability to gain yards after the catch on another.

In 2022, Aaron Rodgers threw eleven more touchdowns (on significantly fewer attempts) compared to the Jets' quarterbacks, and the Packers had more red zone opportunities. While predicting touchdown output can be challenging, Wilson's touchdown-per-reception rate of 0.05 is almost guaranteed to increase in 2023 with Rodgers leading the offense. The Jets frequently targeted Wilson in schemed plays inside the red zone, taking advantage of his ability to quickly create separation. Additionally, with the team likely advancing deeper into opponents' territory, Wilson should have more chances to score six points. The Jets have arguably improved their receiving corps for the upcoming season, and Rodgers' favorite target from last year is one of those enhancements. With an anticipated increase in passing touchdowns, Wilson's touchdown floor should rise, resulting in more top-12 weeks and, with consistent performance, a potential top-12 finish.

The Year-Two Leap

In my previous piece on Drake London, I highlighted the notable changes for second-year, first-round wide receivers. To summarize, based on data since 2014, first-round wide receivers who received more than ten targets in their rookie or sophomore seasons experienced the following improvements in their sophomore year:

• 21.77% more targets
• 29.73% more receptions
• 45.53% more yards
• 47.40% more fantasy points

Applying these increases to Wilson's production would place him among the NFL's elite. If we were to project a one-for-one application of these boosts, Wilson would have the following statistics:

• 179 targets
• 108 receptions
• 1605 yards
• 321 fantasy points

These numbers would rank him 3rd in targets, 5th in receptions, 3rd in yards, and 5th in fantasy points in the NFL.

However, it's important to note that expecting such a significant leap in production is unrealistic. Wilson already had a highly productive rookie season, ranking 14th in the NFL with 1,103 receiving yards and holding an above-average 23.64% target share. While he is likely to see some increase in production, it is more reasonable to expect a more modest improvement. Even with a conservative increase, Wilson would firmly enter top-10 discussions. If we were to halve the aforementioned increases, the projected statistics would be as follows:

• 163 targets
• 95 receptions
• 1354 yards
• 268 fantasy points

This fantasy output would have placed Wilson as the WR7 in 2022, between CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown. This projection does not account for potential improvements in efficiency, touchdown production, or passing rates.

The Counter

While historical trends suggest that Wilson is poised to make significant strides in the NFL, it's crucial to consider alternative outcomes that could impact his performance.

Hypothetical Scenario 1: Aaron Rodgers continues to decline, and his output mirrors that of the Jets' quarterbacks in 2022.

Why it's unlikely: While Rodgers may not have performed at his MVP level in 2022, factors such as the offseason drama surrounding his future with the Packers and the absence of his preferred target likely contributed to his regression. Wilson represents the best receiver Rodgers will have worked with in the past two seasons by the end of 2023.

Hypothetical Scenario 2: The Jets decrease their passing rate significantly as their defense remains strong, and Breece Hall becomes the focal point of the offense.

Why it's unlikely: In 2022, despite utilizing a few subpar quarterbacks, the Jets had the fourth-highest passing rate in the league. While an improved defense and a smoother return for Breece Hall may lead to more balanced game scripts and an increased emphasis on the running game, the potential increases in offensive efficiency and touchdown opportunities could offset any decrease in passing volume. This could result in an even more productive season for Wilson.

Hypothetical Scenario 3: The offensive line fails to gel, hindering the team's ability to attack the intermediate areas of the field.

Why it's unlikely: There are reasons for optimism regarding the Jets' offensive line. Mekhi Becton's dedication to maintaining his weight and his maturity provide hope that he can develop into an excellent offensive tackle. Additionally, Alijah Vera-Tucker's improved pass-blocking in 2022 indicates that the Jets have multiple capable pieces to construct an above-average offensive line in terms of pass protection.

2022 Stats and 2023 Projections

FINAL THOUGHTS

Garrett Wilson's rookie season was truly exceptional. His 1,103 receiving yards ranked as the 6th-best among rookies since 2000 and the 11th-best since 1960. Additionally, his 83 receptions were the 10th-best among rookies since 1960, placing him ahead of the highly regarded Ja'Marr Chase's rookie season. However, despite his statistical excellence, Wilson's fantasy points per game did not reflect his on-field performance.

The addition of Aaron Rodgers to an already well-designed offense is expected to change that. Taking into account the natural progression of elite talent at the receiver position, Wilson appears poised for a breakout sophomore year in New York. The Jets' passing offense is likely to transition from anemic to electric, and there are few players better suited to thrive in such an environment than Garrett Wilson.

While early offseason Average Draft Position (ADP) does not necessarily indicate actual value, Wilson's relatively subdued fantasy output in 2022 may keep his acquisition price low. Drafting him as the ninth receiver is a wager on his potential for a significant leap in production, which is supported by historical trends and various indicators. His upside resides within the top five receivers, and even his downside would still land him within the top twenty. Wilson represents an ideal early-round target in fantasy drafts, offering the potential for league-winning production.