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A Headline-Making Year for Receivers

In the 2022 season, wide receivers made waves with their impressive performances. Although Justin Jefferson couldn't break Calvin Johnson's record of 1,964 receiving yards, he came close with 1,809 yards. Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and A.J. Brown made an impact after switching teams, setting new single-season receiving yardage records for their respective franchises. It's understandable that CeeDee Lamb's performance may have been overshadowed by these standout performances.

Lamb entered the season with high expectations, boasting an ADP of WR6. While he finished as WR8 on a per-game basis, averaging 17.7 PPR points, he still didn't receive the recognition he deserved. Despite his lofty ADP, Lamb is being undervalued.

Using Footballguys Historical Data Dominator, we can find 22 other seasons (since 2000) that met or exceeded Lamb's 2022 totals.

Table: Receivers with at least 107 receptions, 1359 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns (2000-Present)

Here are some key observations:

• Only two players, DeAndre Hopkins and Justin Jefferson, were as young as CeeDee Lamb when achieving these lofty benchmarks.
• Justin Jefferson experienced a notable increase in production the following season, with 20 more catches and 193 additional yards. He narrowly missed making the list again by just one touchdown.
• Six players achieved the statistical criteria in two or more seasons.
• Three players, namely Michael Thomas, Antonio Brown, and Marvin Harrison, made immediate repeat appearances on the list after their initial inclusion. On average, they saw increases of 22 receptions and 218 yards in their second season.

While it would be unrealistic to expect CeeDee Lamb's production to precisely mirror those specific improvements of 20 catches and 200 yards, it is worth noting that multiple players have made significant leaps in their second season.

Looking ahead to 2023, Lamb may encounter obstacles that could impact his production. The team is undergoing a transition in offensive coordinators, with Brian Schottenheimer taking over from Kellen Moore, who served for four seasons. Additionally, Lamb will face increased competition for targets with the arrival of Brandin Cooks and the return of Michael Gallup from injury.

Realistically, what kind of improvement can we expect from Lamb? How will his production react to a changing offensive environment in Dallas? Does he have room to exceed his WR6 ADP?

Continuous Improvement

Lamb's career alignment has been interesting. As a rookie, playing on a team with Amari Cooper and Gallup, he played almost exclusively out of the slot. With Gallup injured to start 2021, that alignment shifted as Lamb covered Gallup's outside position until he returned in Week 10. But in 2022, we saw the usage fantasy managers love to see, with Lamb playing both inside and outside at a near-equal rate.

This piece from the spring of 2022 shows why this type of progression is so important. Lamb served in a slot safety role to start his career, playing significantly fewer snaps than Cooper and Gallup (730 vs. 943 and 1,003) as he came off the field in sub-packages. His ADoT of 9.3 reflected this usage, and it spun off a strong catch rate at 66.7%. His second season saw significant increases in snap count (942) and a rising ADoT (10.3), attributed to replacing Gallup outside for a substantial portion of the season. Still, his catch rate dropped a bit (65%).

In 2022, his snap rate exploded to 1,128. His ADoT stayed constant from the prior year (10.1), and his catch rate increased to 67%.

Fantasy is a volume game; this usage is the key to unlocking more.

Lamb's primary differentiator is effectiveness in all areas of the field. Lamb is one of the best downfield receivers, displaying elite route-running prowess. This effectiveness and versatility allow him to be featured on any passing concept at any depth, working out of any formation. This ability gives him an elite volume ceiling. If he hopes to close the gap on Justin Jefferson as the overall WR1, he still needs to boost his volume even off a career-high 156 targets. Jefferson, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, and Michael Thomas have all cleared 180 targets in a season since 2019.

But even with this growth, can the changes on offense give Lamb a path to that volume?

An Evolving Offense

The Cowboys will transition from Moore's West Coast scheme to Schottenheimer's roots in the Air Coryell system.

Moore's system was more timing-based, utilizing motions to create mismatches while featuring heavy 11 personnel (three wide receivers, one tight end).

Schottenheimer's system historically has featured a power run game with varied personnel sets and deeper attacking passing routes off play action. Long-time football fans can remember the Jets with Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez. Schottenheimer served as their OC for six years, in offenses based on power run games and attacking vertically to players like Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery. More recently, Schottenheimer spent three seasons with Seattle, where the team used Chris Carson in a physical run game to help Russell Wilson stretch the field with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

This scheme fits the talents of Lamb, Gallup, and Cooks well. All three are adept at stretching the field. But head coach Mike McCarthy will likely have his thumbprint on this offense, and Schottenheimer must adjust. Traditionally, tight ends have been very involved in the passing attack, and the Cowboys are facing significant uncertainty in the position. Tight ends Jake Ferguson, Peyton Henderson, and Luke Schoonmaker are all in their first two years in the league. Meanwhile, running backs have been less involved in the passing attack under Schottenheimer; while that is a strength of Tony Pollard, a requirement in a play-action passing attack is tying the running back up with defensive attention.

All that is to say, unless one of the tight ends emerges as a significant passing threat or McCarthy pulls the system far away from Schottenheimer's traditional roots, there will be ample targets to support the receivers. If the Cowboys veer away from heavy 11 personnel sets and play multiple tight end looks, that will funnel more to Lamb's direction. The hope is Lamb sees deeper targets at a higher frequency, increasing the value of those targets and allowing for more explosive results.

Cooks' Arrival

Full caution, this is an exercise in small sample-size theater.

The wide receiver movement in 2022 dominated headlines. This article outlined why the performance of these new receivers on their new teams should not be a concern. And true to that, these new receivers delivered, with several of them breaking franchise records.

But what about the incumbent receivers?

On average, the incumbent receivers saw an increase in their production across various categories, including higher target volume, more receptions, and more receiving yards.

However, there are a few caveats to consider. Davante Adams was not included in the analysis due to the impact of injuries on the other receiving options on the Raiders.

Extensive research in the fantasy community has shown that adding more receiving options to a team does not necessarily hinder the production of incumbent receivers, beyond the limited sample size mentioned. Therefore, it can be concluded that the addition of Cooks should be seen as a boost to Lamb, as Cooks will attract defensive attention and create opportunities for Lamb rather than hinder his performance.

Recent Stats

Projections

Final Thoughts

Lamb is an elite talent capable of finishing as the overall WR1. His primary challenge lies in achieving continued growth in volume. Nevertheless, he possesses the necessary traits and has shown a historical development similar to players who have successfully surpassed that threshold. While a new coaching scheme and increased competition for targets may present obstacles, Lamb stands as the most impactful player in the Cowboys' offense and will be the centerpiece of their weekly game plan. Fantasy managers should feel confident selecting him as their first-round pick, especially if they draw a later position in the draft.