Running backs collaborating to press their franchises for higher pay was the story of the preseason. The opening refrain of the 2023 season has only dampened their resolve. The last five NFL rushing champions – the only five still in the league – have either struggled to gain ground or even to get on the field. Several other prominent names at the position have already lost significant time to injury.
Total rushing yardage throughout the league is down almost ten percent year over year after three weeks. All of this is happening while NFL defenses devote more resources to pass coverage. Blitzes are less frequent as well. Media coverage often describes these trends as indications that NFL defenses are playing more conservatively, but that's not necessarily so.
As Ted Nguyen noted for The Athletic in 2022, defensive coordinators seek to limit explosive plays in both phases. More are willing to take their lumps from running backs versus their light boxes (typically six defensive linemen and linebackers) and rely on defensive backs to string out runs.
Entering 2023, Nguyen observed that teams are moving away from one-and-a-half gapping, an important component of the defensive formula he wrote about just one year prior. Instead, edge rushers are getting upfield with reckless abandon. Quarterback sacks are up more than seven percent year over year.
The lack of success by NFL running backs versus increasingly pass-centric defenses has been a conundrum for two or three seasons now. The outlines of an answer from NFL run-game coordinators might have finally emerged in Week 3 of the 2023 season.
A Historic Turning Point?
The Miami Dolphins rushed for more yards than any team in three years, since the Ravens steamrolled a Bengals team that lay down in the final week of Lamar Jackson's MVP season. Three Miami running backs combined for 441 yards rushing and receiving in a historic defeat of the Broncos. According to Doug Farrar of USA Today, the Dolphins' formula includes motion, misdirection, personnel diversity, speed, and more speed.
The casual fan might believe that Miami, with all of its speed and undersized players, runs an Air Raid offense. Instead, the Dolphins exposed the Broncos with tighter offensive sets and 21 personnel versus base defenses. Footballguy Matt Waldman illustrates:
The Broncos' pitiful pass rush was a known quantity entering Week 3. An edge group that looked mediocre on paper before the season started – Randy Gregory, Frank Clark, Nik Bonitto, and Jonathon Cooper – gave new defensive coordinator Vance Joseph comfort with a four-man rush. According to Sports Info Solutions Data Hub, the Broncos have blitzed the least of any NFL team. Desperate to get upfield, Denver's edges routinely overplayed the edge in Week 3, contributing to De'Von Achane's grand debut.
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An Answer Hiding in Plain Sight?
Credit for the formula, however, might be lost in the shadow of history. The Arizona Cardinals rushed for 180 yards in the first half of their game versus the Cowboys. According to the broadcast, no Dallas defense had allowed that much success in the ground game in a half of football in more than 30 years.
The Cardinals were thought to have no chance in this game. The Cowboys' defense has been one of the most successful and one of the most aggressive since Dan Quinn's arrival in 2021. They generate sacks and turnovers at high rates thanks in part to leading the league in defensive line stunts.
Every stunt is to an extent a gamble that the offense won't attack the post vacated by the stunting lineman. Even when Micah Parsons isn't stunting, he's getting upfield so aggressively, he opens opportunities for opponents to attack his pre-snap position. Dallas linebackers and safeties did not successfully backfill in Week 3.
Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner is tied for second with DaVante Adams with 28 total touchdowns since 2021.
— Bo Brack (@BoBrack) September 28, 2023
LA Chargers RB Austin Eckler has the most with 39 during that span.
Conner has been a BEAST since joining the Cards. pic.twitter.com/PwtqHm7uug
The Cardinals showed the same formulaic elements as the Dolphins' run game designed to create explosive plays: motion, misdirection, personnel diversity, and speed. Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore might not be Tyreek Hill, but they have plus speed.
Kinda liking the fit of RB Rondale Moore…at least situationally pic.twitter.com/iXeZHgdGdv
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 24, 2023
Moore's new coaching staff already seems to have a better plan for him than the regime that selected him in the second round of the 2021 NFL draft. On his 45-yard touchdown, he swapped positions with Emari Demercado and took a handoff through a crease widened by Parsons's burst off the line. (Demercado runs a sub-4.4 40-yard dash himself.)
The Cowboys themselves involved Kavontae Turpin in the offense versus the New York teams in their first two games. Turpin's 4.31 speed will be needed if the Cowboys are to challenge Bill Belichick's defense for more than the 16 points Dallas managed in Arizona.
The Cardinals and the Dolphins will text division rivals on the road with good defenses. Neither team will replicate the success it experienced in Week 3, but their attack merits observation. Equally interesting will be how two veteran defensive coordinators counter the explosive run game formula.
Fantasy Implications
Waldman discusses how to navigate the offensive players in these ground games for fantasy football here. The Dolphins' and Cardinals' success on offense impacts IDP line-up decisions against them each week.
Even after a 70-point performance, Miami has run a middling 65.67 plays per game. Arizona is running just 57 offensive plays per game, fueling the notion of shortening the game for its talent-starved defense. Arizona is one of nine teams running fewer than 60 plays per game in the young 2023 season. Five of these teams – Jets, Titans, Broncos, Bears, and Giants – are allowing sacks at high rates. The remaining three – Raiders, Steelers, and Packers – will need to get their running games on track themselves or their quarterbacks will start going down frequently as well.
Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs has taken just five sacks so far this season. Both IDP gamers and those deploying team defenses have surely been disappointed in the production from pass rushes pursuing Dobbs. The Cardinals' low number of plays run also reduces tackle opportunities for opposing defenders.
The four teams that have run the most offensive plays through three weeks – Browns, Patriots, Eagles, and Cowboys – have also specialized in forcing opposing offenses off the field. All four teams rank in the bottom six in number of plays allowed. Linebackers and safeties facing Cleveland, New England, Philadelphia, and Dallas get plus match-ups with high upside as tacklers.
Arizona middle linebacker Kyzir White, for instance, collected 14 combined tackles against the Cowboys in Week 3. His interception was icing on the cake.
The Cowboys offensive line was under pressure the entire game against Arizona.
— Mason Kinnahan (@Mason_Kinnahan) September 26, 2023
The Cardinals exploited the inexperienced members of the line by using a LOT of pre-snap motion. Constant movement look at Kyzir White (#7) on this play. #BirdGang pic.twitter.com/PEG8rv8oCp
Thanks for Reading!
Reading the Defense will track trends and analyze anomalies each Friday. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.