The Thanksgiving holiday is a time to appreciate those for whom we are thankful. Fantasy gamers are often most thankful for top producers acquired at little to no cost. This week's edition of Reading the Defense highlights the highest-scoring surprise at each of the five positions through eleven weeks and considers lessons each player's emergence offers for the future.
DT Justin Madubuike, Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore defensive tackle Justin Madubuike ranks second in fantasy points on Footballguys' leaderboard on the strength of 9.5 quarterback sacks. The former third-round pick was a post-hype sleeper entering his fourth year. His teammate Broderick Washington was the young tackle who signed a multi-year extension last summer in the wake of Calais Campbell's release. Washington's stock, however, has headed in the opposite direction. He was a healthy scratch in Week 11.
Madubuike has spearheaded a unit that ranks fourth in total defense and leads the league in sacks with 44. He is one of six Ravens with at least 3.0 sacks. Two tired veterans the team added off the street, Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy, have 6.5 and 6.0, respectively.
Curiously, the Ravens rank outside the top 20 teams in pressure rate and quarterback knockdown rate per Pro Football Reference. They're dead last in rate of quarterback hurries per dropback, which excludes sacks. When the Ravens get close to the quarterback, they finish.
The unit recorded five sacks against C.J. Stroud in his first start. The Ravens sacked Anthony Richardson five times in his third start. In two 30-point victories, they sacked Geno Smith and Jared Goff five times each. A good team capitalized by tilting the field and playing downhill versus passers who typically take sacks at a league-average rate. The Ravens' playoff schedule – at Jacksonville, at San Francisco, and home versus the Dolphins – does not portend similar results.
Fantasy managers enjoying Madubuike's eight-game streak of reaching quarterbacks hope it continues on the strength of strong play. Advanced metrics, however, don't support such hope. Madubuike has not separated himself from the pack as a pass-rusher who wins at the snap.
Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (y), updated chart!
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) November 10, 2023
Three big names at the top.
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats) pic.twitter.com/x0eKrxLeNa
Madubuike fit summer roster construction as a DT3 with upside. He is Baltimore's 3-technique defensive tackle, the one-gapping interior penetrator, on a good team. His drafters have reaped enormous returns on their investment. Going forward, his in-game performance must better reflect results to date in the absence of overwhelmingly positive situations for the team's pass rush.
EDGE Jonathon Cooper, Denver Broncos
Randy Gregory and Frank Clark were the Broncos' starting outside linebackers in training camp. Clark had just signed a one-year $7.5 million contract to man the strong side after several years starting for division rival Kansas City. Both players disappointed new defensive coordinator Vance Joseph and were jettisoned in October.
Former seventh-round pick and current third-year man Jonathon Cooper overtook Clark in August. With 45 combined tackles and 5.5 sacks, Cooper ranks sixth on the Footballguys' leaderboard behind five perennial stars.
Cooper has the fewest sacks of any edge defender in the leaderboard's top ten. He's an active run defender who posted his highest tackle totals in games where the Broncos' defense couldn't get off the field. The team seems to have righted the ship since its historic loss to Miami.
Also, after a historically bad five-game stretch to start the season, it appears that the @Broncos' defense has become... good? https://t.co/uC3qwYTw3H pic.twitter.com/KghueOhJw5
— Doug Farrar ✠(@NFL_DougFarrar) November 20, 2023
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That fact makes him more of a DE2 than DE1 for fantasy gamers down the stretch; however, his production is striking compared to edge defenders with fewer responsibilities. As tracked by Pro Football Focus, Cooper has played the same number of snaps in run defense as Jihad Ward of the Giants – 203. PFF reports 39 total tackles for Cooper and just 11 for Ward. As Denver's strong-side edge, Cooper is collecting tackles in 8% of his snaps versus 6% by his teammates Nik Bonitto and Baron Browning, who typically man the weak side.
Had he been a first-rounder or an off-ball linebacker, Cooper's ascension would have been big news in IDP circles. He and other new starters like Seattle's Boye Mafe and Houston's Jonathan Greenard should inform fantasy gamers to keep developing pass rushers in their peripheral vision in August and September.
IDP fantasy football's new landscape with true positions offers an abundance of pass rushers. Cooper, Mafe, and Greenard may have all been classified linebackers previously, keeping them off fantasy gamers' radars. Gamers no longer need to reach for second- and third-tier defensive ends in fantasy drafts, provided they afford themselves roster space to stockpile low-cost options.
LB Robert Spillane, Las Vegas Raiders
Robert Spillane signed with the Raiders as an unrestricted free agent in March “to come in and be given the opportunity to be a green dot and to play and to really be a leader of this team.” The Raiders seemed sincere about competition for the role. Last year's green dot, Divine Deablo, took his turn in OTAs.
No news leaked before the second preseason game about which player won the competition. Those who completed early drafts landed an LB1 at the very end of their drafts. Thereafter, gamers failed to fully adjust, so Spillane's LB3/4 price tag in late August drafts continued to offer value. Fantasy gamers must more closely track and better adjust to offseason and preseason developments.
Spillane is posting LB2 tackle numbers through 11 weeks. Big plays have vaulted him to 8th on the Footballguys' leaderboard for the position.
CB DaRon Bland, Dallas Cowboys
DaRon Bland's path to the top ten among defensive backs is easily explained. He has tied an NFL record with five interception returns for touchdowns so far this season. His emergence was impossible to predict in August. He began playing full-time only after Trevon Diggs tore an ACL. Bland picked up where Diggs left off as a ballhawk in an aggressive, disruptive defense focused on denying receivers the football.
Every pick-six this season by Cowboys CB DaRon Bland, the Broncos, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Commanders, Falcons, 49ers, Jets, Patriots, Rams, Texans, Titans and Vikings. pic.twitter.com/rxJN4JmGED
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) November 23, 2023
SAF Camryn Bynum, Minnesota Vikings
Grant Delpit is checking all the boxes of a top fantasy defensive back. He is the Browns' box safety, complementing deep centerfielder Juan Thornhill in a predominantly single-high defense. Delpit leads the league's defensive backs in solo tackles in run defense, according to Pro Football Focus. His average depth of target in coverage is the lowest of all starting safeties, per Pro Football Reference. His unit leads the league in total defense and ranks second in interceptions. Despite all this, Delpit ranks an underwhelming 16th among fantasy safeties at Footballguys.com.
Camryn Bynum leads the group with 142.8 fantasy points, fully 41 ahead of Delpit. Bynum leads all safeties in targets faced in coverage (57) and in receptions allowed (44). These totals are about 25% higher than anyone else's at the position. PFF reports that Bynum has made the twelfth most combined tackles in run defense. Bynum has played more snaps (726) than all but three NFL safeties, 175 more than Delpit, albeit in one more game.
While the Browns have allowed the fewest number of offensive plays and pass completions, the Vikings defense has played the fifth most offensive plays and allowed the second most receptions. Bynum, a free safety who lacks the requisite traits for the position, has been a frequent target of opposing offenses. Bynum's formula for fantasy success has been one applied to cornerbacks. Bynum is a weak enough defender to allow a high volume of receptions, but not so bad that he gets benched. This column contemplated the convergence of defensive backfield positions for fantasy football in Week 14 last season.
In Gratitude
Reading the Defense drops each Friday. This writer is grateful to those who take the time to read and react to it. This column seeks to identify not only whom to target or fade but why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.