Prop Talk Week 13

Photo: USA Today Sports

Week 11 Recap- N/A

We took Week 11 off due to some medical issues I was having, but we are not back for Week 12. It’s time to get back to winning ways.

Josh Allen Over 261.5 Passing Yards- Win
Saquon Barkley Over 98.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards- Loss
Gardner Minshew Over 246.5 Passing Yards- Win
Russell Wilson Over 189.5 Passing Yards- Loss
David Njoku Over 4.5 Receptions- Win
Rashid Shaheed Over 37.5 Receiving Yards- Loss

Week 13 Props

C.J. Stroud Under 268.5 Passing Yards

C.J. Stroud has been incredible this season. Stroud has now thrown for an average of 366.5 passing yards over his last four games. The issue for Stroud however, is that the matchups that he has faced during that stretch have been against some of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati with a crumbling Arizona defense as the fourth team. In games that he has faced above-average pass defenses, Stroud has thrown for 242, 249, 199, and 140. Denver has not allowed a quarterback to top 268.5 passing yards since Week 6 when Patrick Mahomes II was able to do it, but since then they’ve shut down Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes II a second time, Jordan Love, Josh Dobbs, and the duo of P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Baker Mayfield Under 222.5 Passing Yards

The Panthers pass defense has been one of the best and this week they get the Buccaneers who are quickly spiraling into a lost season having lost six of the last seven games this season. Mayfield is averaging 235 passing yards per game this season, but is facing a team that is allowing just 190 on the season. This is also a game where there are significant rumors that Kyle Trask could start to see some consideration for playing time from the coaching staff. If the Buccaneers struggle throwing against this pass defense, we could see a coaching change half-way through this game which would significantly help the under this week.

Drake London Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

It seems as if the prop number has not properly taken into account Desmond Ridder compared to Taylor Heinicke. With Ridder starting, London has six consecutive games with seven or more targets and has topped 44.5 yards in five of those games. While the matchup is difficult against the Jets this week, there are some questions whether this Jets team has started to quit given their performance last week when both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill both topped 100-yards in Week 12, and number one receivers have topped 44.5 receiving yards in every game since Week 6 except for the Giants game (it could be argued they don’t have a number one receiver).