Below are some props that you should keep your eye on as you head into Week 4.
All props are coming from DraftKings Sportsbook lines and be sure to keep checking back throughout the weekend as props are added as numbers change throughout the weekend.
We are going back to keeping a record of the props. For record purposes, all props that are in as of Saturday Night will count towards the record.
Week 3 Record- 5-0:
We finally did it, it’s been a few seasons since we’ve had a 5-0 week, but we’re now 9-1 over the last two weeks. Now the most difficult thing is to follow-up after a 5-0 week as expectations and bank accounts should be high. Who knows, maybe you want to fade this week since 9-1 is simply not sustainable and there will be some regression that is ultimately coming.
Deshaun Watson Over 234.5 Passing Yards- Win
C.J. Stroud Over 234.5 Passing Yards- Win
Josh Reynolds Over 42.5 Receiving Yards- Win
Kendre Miller Under 38.5 Rushing Yards- Win
Derrick Henry Under 90.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards- Win
|
Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Total |
|
|
Record |
2-3 |
4-1 |
5-0 |
11-4 |
See something else you like? Send me a note on Twitter
Week 4 Props
Tua Tagovailoa Under 274.5 Passing Yards
Throughout his career, Tua Tagovailoa has struggled against the Bills. The only time that he has thrown for over 274.5 passing yards has been his first start against the Bills in which one of his breakout performances in Week 17 throwing for 361 yards, but that was a different Bills team in 2020 as they allowed over 300 yards passing to 4 of their final 6 opponents. This season, the Bills are off to a tremendous start against the pass. While the competition has been lacking as they have faced Jimmy Garoppolo, Zach Wilson, and Sam Howell, the Bills have not allowed a quarterback even in blowout scenarios throw for more than 185 yards. Tua has only been sacked one time this year, as the Dolphins have faced somewhat of an easy schedule with Denver, Chargers, and in their one difficult matchup, Tua went under 274.5 against the Patriots.
C.J. Stroud Over 237.5 Passing Yards
Until the sportsbooks adjust, just plan on taking C.J. Stroud every week until he misses a few of these in a row. 237.5 is a crazy number, as Stroud has topped that every week this season. Meanwhile Pittsburgh’s secondary is far from a shut-down unit as they’re allowing 260 passing yards per game which is the 10th-most in the NFL this season. This is a defense that is coming off of a 324-yard performance to Jimmy Garoppolo. The Texans have shown no ability to run the ball as Dameon Pierce is averaging 2.5 yards-per-carry while Devin Singletary is only slightly better at 3.5 yards-per-carry but still far below even an average offense. Stroud’s passing attempt average came down to just 40.3 per game, but that was driven by a blowout victory last week against the Jaguars and if that game had been closer, Stroud would likely have been throwing close to the 40-45 times instead of the 30 that he threw.
Anthony Richardson Under 47.5 Rushing Yards
The Colts are off to a very surprising 2-1 start to the 2023 season. Anthony Richardson returns this week from a concussion which kept him out in Week 3. It would seem logical, that the team continues to try to ride the success of Zack Moss who has carried the ball 48 times over the last two games, rather than try to run the ball 10 times in Week 1. Even in those 10 rushing attempts, Richardson only had 40 total yards, so unless he breaks a long run it would seem difficult for him to get to his number. Richardson has shown so far in his limited action that he is far more than a Justin Fields type who is a runner first. Richardson throwing the ball has shown glimpses of something that the Colts can build on, and risking a second concussion this early in a quarterbacks career would be a massive setback.
Jerome Ford Under 51.5 Rushing Yards
Jerome Ford’s love amongst the fantasy community is something that we haven’t seen in quite some time. There was an injury to a top 3 player at his position in Nick Chubb, and most people immediately slotted Jerome Ford into the category of dominance immediately. Other sites created false narratives that the coaching staff was going to make him the “featured back”, when Kevin Stefanski has said the same thing all along. There is no replacing Nick Chubb, and everyone is going to have to step up and get contributions from multiple players. From a rushing perspective, we have yet to see Jerome Ford do much of anything on the ground outside of one 69-yard run on a broken play. Some people will continue to point towards that one play, but Ford has just 1 carry out of 41 that has gone for over 20 yards, and just two carries that have gone for over 10 yards.
The pending threat is that if the coaching staff is not happy with the lack of results, they have had a full week now to plan around the usage of Kareem Hunt who was brought in mid-week last week to fill the vacancy on the roster created by the Chubb injury. The Browns had a significantly positive game script last week against Tennessee which they dominated from the start of that game. With a full week of practice, and what should be a more difficult game, could we see more of Hunt this week? If so, that 51.5 rushing yards becomes even more difficult for Ford if it is a timeshare role.
Josh Jacobs Under 74.5 Rushing Yards
This number seems crazy. Josh Jacobs on the season has had games with 62, -2, and 48 rushing yards. However, two of those three games came against Pittsburgh and Denver who are allowing the most rushing yards against opposing running backs than any other team. Denver is allowing 166 yards to opposing running backs, while Pittsburgh is allowing 132 to the position. The next closest team that Jacobs could have faced would be the Giants who are at 118. These are matchups that Jacobs should have dominated, and he averaged 18 carries for 55 yards barely getting to 3 yards per carry. Something just looks off with the All-Pro from last season. Whether it is the contract dispute that held him out for most of camp or just the overall disfunction that seems to be coming out of that locker room right now.
To make matters worse, Jimmy Garoppolo will not play this week. It appears Brian Hoyer will play, although Aiden O’Connell could be a surprise starter as the team has not named a starting quarterback to replace Garoppolo. Neither of these guys helps Jacobs, as even though they may try to lean on Jacobs more heavily from a volume perspective, the defensive fronts that he is going to face will be significantly more stacked towards stopping the run than it would be against Garoppolo who just threw for over 300-yards last week.