Who will Kansas City and other AFC West Teams Draft?

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The period between free agency and the NFL draft is one of the quietest in the NFL calendar. Most free agent signings happen quickly, and teams wait until after the draft to take advantage of the compensatory pick formula. The formula rewards net losses, and the NFL has moved the date up for non-qualified signings to the Monday following the draft. That allows an opportunity to identify draft needs and underrated dynasty buy low players to target before the draft grants clarity. This series will look division by division at where teams stand before the draft.

Denver Broncos: Look For Any Clues On the Health of Javonte Williams

Reports about Javonte Williams' health are skeptical at best. The latest report has his return timeframe as uncertain. The best clue will come this weekend.

Draft picks are a finite resource for the franchise, which is still reeling from the effects of the Russell Wilson trade. The team has six but does not pick until early in the third round at 67. Their current depth chart outside of Williams is sparse, with Samaje Perine the nominal starter followed by second-year Tyler Badie and a Sean Payton - New Orleans connection in Tony Jones. The team could still add in free agency, and bringing back Latavius Murray, who ran well in 2022 and knew Payton from their time in New Orleans, makes the most sense. But utilizing one of their few draft picks on a meaningful running back addition signals a red flag for Williams' 2023 return and long-term prospects.

Much of Williams' appeal has been his dual-threat ability. He possesses workhorse size and soft hands that he displayed with 53 targets and an 81% catch rate in his rookie season. But Payton has long favored committee backfields, most notably featuring Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara heavily. Taking a situational-specific back, especially a pass-catching specialist, knocks Williams' overall ceiling long-term.

Williams is one of the riskiest dynasty assets, given his uncertain injury recovery and unclear picture of his role within Payton's scheme.

Las Vegas Raiders: Is There Room At Tight End

Over the last four seasons, Darren Waller and George Kittle have dominated the top of fantasy tight end leaderboards. The Raiders and Jimmy Garoppolo must function without a trusted safety blanket. Those two are a far cry from a Raiders tight end room that features Austin Hooper, OJ Howard, and Jesper Horsted. The room can use an upgrade. But does it need it?

The Raiders made the surprising free agent signings of 2023 by adding Jakobi Meyers. At first blush, it made little sense. Davante Adams will be the primary option; he accounted for 180 targets in his first season with the team. Hunter Renfrow has the slot covered; he saw 128 in his last fully healthy season in 2021. Meanwhile, Meyers saw 96 in 2022 with the Patriots, down from 126 in 2021. 404 targets to just three players would be a lot. For reference, Tom Brady broke the NFL record with 733 pass attempts in 2022. His top three options drew 352 targets. Garoppolo threatening that record would be unexpected and unwise.

So how does it shake out?

There is little reason to back off Adams. His target pace is a volume he has handled through the last five seasons, and he returned to one of his best statistical seasons. Hypothetically Meyers can be a one-for-one replacement for the 94 targets Mack Hollins saw in 2022. Renfrow is the one unlikely to approach his breakout 2021 volume. Given the clear narrative around the team, he is a tough player to move for value in dynasty. The team allocated 75 targets to Renfrow and Keelan Cole in 2022; meanwhile, the tight end position accounted for 97. Flip those to Renfrow; there is just enough to make one tight end option a late-round flier.

Hooper should be the guy. He has seen at least 60 targets yearly since his rookie season, establishing himself as a consistent, albeit low-ceiling option. But despite the apparent hole in this roster, this is a stay away for any of the rookies in this class as currently constructed.