Two-Game Slate
- New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers - Over/Under 39.5
- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers - Over/Under 38.5
Injury Roundup
- Alvin Kamara OUT and Kendre Miller Questionable - Upgrade Jamaal Williams
- Diontae Johnson OUT - Upgrade George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Allen Robinson, and Calvin Austin
- Amari Cooper Questionable but unlikely to play - Upgrade Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku
- D.J. Chark Jr Questionable - Upgrade Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall, and Jonathan Mingo
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr is surrounded by exciting weapons in Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson and the offense should lean on him with Alvin Kamara out again due to suspension. His matchup is favorable against a Panthers defense that ranked 17th in Dropback EPA (Expected Points Added) Allowed and 19th in Success Rate last season and that will be without cornerback Jaycee Horn due to injury.
The Browns are 2.5-point favorites despite being on the road and that's simply because they're the better team. The Steelers defense is not what it once was. They were lit up by Brock Purdy in Week 1 after ranking 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed last season. And Deshaun Watson comes with rushing upside. He carried 5 times in Week 1 for 45 yards and 1 touchdown.
Running Backs
Last season, Nick Chubb secured his spot among the top running backs in the league, ranking third in both rush attempts (302) and rushing yards (1,525) and fifth in rushing touchdowns (12). He was far from insignificant in the passing game, too, catching 27 passes for 239 yards and an additional touchdown. And he caught four passes in Week 1. The last time he caught at least four passes was Week 18 of last season with Deshaun Watson. The last time before that was Week 16 of the 2020 season...three YEARS ago. The absence of Kareem Hunt appears to be increasing Chubb's workload. He's a must-play against a Steelers defense that ranked 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Rush EPA Allowed last season.
Miles Sanders' 24 opportunities (Carries + Targets) in Week 1 were the second most in the NFL behind only Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers will continue to feed Sanders in the rushing and receiving games, and he has a favorable matchup on tap against a Saints defense that ranked 21st in Rush EPA Allowed last year.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave was selected in the first round last year and immediately became the Saints’ WR1, catching 72 passes for 1,042 yards and 4 touchdowns as a rookie. Olave showed big-play potential as he ranked second at the wide receiver position in average depth of target (14.9). Clearly, last year was no fluke as Olave put up 8 receptions for 112 yards in Week 1. He's the WR1 on this two-game slate.
Amari Cooper is reportedly unlikely to play after tweaking his groin in practice on Saturday. That makes Elijah Moore the projected WR1 for Deshaun Watson in a favorable matchup against a Steelers defense that ranked 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed last season. Head coach Kevin Stefanski compared Moore to Percy Harvin in the offseason, and Moore saw seven targets in Week 1 in his Cleveland debut.
Adam Thielen was on the injury report with an ankle injury and only ended up seeing two targets in Week 1. And he's 33 years old. Age is catching up with him but expect some productive games early on this season before he fades later in the year. I'm buying a bounceback for Thielen in Week 2 as Bryce Young's go-to receiver against a beatable Saints defense.
Tight Ends
The expected absence of Amari Cooper should funnel more targets toward David Njoku. He's the TE1 on this two-game slate against a Steelers defense that ranked 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed last year.
The absence of Diontae Johnson should funnel more targets toward Pat Freiermuth, who is a red zone favorite of Kenny Pickett and who will be needed since the Steelers are home underdogs.
Team Defense
Browns D/ST
It appears this Browns defense is for real. New defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz had a memorable debut in Week 1, helping to limit Joe Burrow to just 82 passing yards. They should have a field day against Kenny Pickett, one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.