Two-Game Slate
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens - Over/Under 36.5
- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts - Over/Under 47.5
Teams Playing with Motivation
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Houston Texans
- Indianapolis Colts
Injury/Playing Time Roundup
- Baltimore is resting many of their starters
- Kenny Pickett is healthy but has been benched for Mason Rudolph
- Noah Brown OUT
- Robert Woods Questionable
Quarterbacks
We want our quarterback to come from the Texans at Colts game as it projects to be more competitive with both teams battling for a playoff spot and the Over/Under being nine points higher. C.J. Stroud is the clear top choice. He has been phenomenal this season. Stroud ranks fourth in passing yards per game (274.6) and 13th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5). He's in the dome in Indianapolis so the weather won't be a concern. He'll be able to chuck it around all day on a beatable Colts defense that only ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 14th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Gardner Minshew is the home quarterback in this fantasy-friendly matchup and he has the better matchup on paper against a Texans defense that ranks just 15th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8. And Minshew has the backing of Shane Steichen, who has done a remarkable job keeping Indianapolis' offense afloat despite the loss of Anthony Richardson earlier in the year.
Running Backs
The Texans have a strong run defense. They rank fifth-best in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8. But this is the elite talent of Jonathan Taylor we're talking about here and the Colts are playing at home for their postseason lives. Expect Taylor to be fed after he just saw 22 opportunities last week.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are both in play but which one should receive our vote of confidence? This week, Harris is the choice. The Ravens will be resting many of their starters and their defense already ranks 30th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8. Harris is in a great position to exploit this favorable matchup after turning 27 carries into 122 yards and 2 touchdowns last week.
Devin Singletary is a strong tournament play. He flat-out stole the starting running back job from Dameon Pierce as the coaching staff and team seem to love him and rely on him. Singletary saw an insane 31 total opportunities just three weeks ago and just saw 19 opportunities last week. Singletary is being utilized as a dual-threat, is tied to C.J. Stroud, and has a favorable matchup against a Colts defense that only ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Wide Receivers
Noah Brown is out and Robert Woods is questionable. These are just reasons for C.J. Stroud to funnel more targets Nico Collins' way. Collins has been fantastic this season, truly breaking out in his third year. Collins has had games of 11, 11, and 12 targets this year and just saw eight targets last week. In a do-or-die game with pass catchers crumbling all around him, look for Stroud to see double-digit targets against a Colts defense that only ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 14th in Drtopback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
Take advantage of recency bias here. Michael Pittman Jr was injured early in Week 15, missed Week 16, and returned last week to only put up 46 receiving yards. Still, Pittman's 150 targets are 55 more than any other Colt, his 104 receptions are 39 more than any teammate, and his 1,108 receiving yards are 385 more than anyone on the team. Pittman is the alpha here and will be leaned on heavily in a must-win game at home against a Texans defense that ranks just 15th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 8.
George Pickens and Diontae Johnson
Shockingly, Mason Rudolph of all quarterbacks has reinvigorated Pittsburgh's passing offense. Rudolph threw for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 16 and 274 yards last week. This boosts the value of both George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, who will be playing against backups. Over Rudolph's two starts, Pickens has seen 15 targets and Johnson has seen 9 targets. Pickens is the preferred play as he's seeing more volume and Rudolph has also helped unlock his elite downfield playmaking ability. Pickens has put up 195 and 131 receiving yards in back-to-back contests.
Noah Brown is out and Robert Woods is questionable. These injuries open up the possibility of a low-owned secondary or tertiary pass catcher tied to C.J. Stroud to become a tournament hero. The two main options here are John Metchie III and Xavier Hutchinson. Give me Metchie, who played 61% of the offensive snaps to Hutchinson's 43% last week.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz is tied to by far the best quarterback on this two-game slate, C.J. Stroud, he just saw 11 targets two weeks ago, and has a winnable matchup against a Colts defense that has allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game (10.4) to the tight end position this season.
Shockingly, Mason Rudolph of all quarterbacks has reinvigorated Pittsburgh's passing offense. Rudolph threw for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 16 and 274 yards last week. Yet, Pat Freiermuth has only caught 3 of 4 targets for 44 yards combined between Rudolph's two starts. That will cause some to shy away from Freiermuth. Lean into him in tournaments and understand a two-game sample is extremely small. Freiermuth could have a big game here against backups if Rudolph keeps moving the ball like he has so far.
The other low-owned secondary or tertiary pass catcher tied to C.J. Stroud who could become a tournament hero on this two-game slate is Brevin Jordan. Despite Dalton Schultz playing the majority of the snaps last week, Jordan still played on 51% of the offensive snaps in his own right and caught both of his targets for 19 yards and 1 touchdown.
Team Defenses
Steelers
Baltimore's offense is resting many of their starters. Meanwhile, the Steelers are playing all out for a playoff spot. Advantage T.J. Watt. The Steelers are 3.5-point favorites.
Texans
On a two-game slate, be willing to bet on Demeco Ryans and his defense in tournaments. Will Anderson is coming for Defensive Rookie of the Year and Gardner Minshew has been sacked (33) the 13th-most in the NFL. The Texans are 1.5-point favorites.