Two-Game Slate
- Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins - Over/Under 46.5
- Green Bay Packers at New York Giants - Over/Under 37
Injury Roundup
- Christian Watson OUT
- Luke Musgrave OUT
- Aaron Jones Questionable
- Parris Campbell Questionable
- Daniel Bellinger Questionable
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa is the clear top quarterback on this two-game slate. He leads a Dolphins offense that ranks third in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), second in Dropback EPA, fourth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and tenth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). He ranks third in both passing yards per game (288.1) and pass touchdowns per game (2). The Dolphins are at home, and Tagovailoa has a fantastic matchup he can exploit against a Titans defense that ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Jordan Love is coming on and impressing in his first year as a full-time starting quarterback. He leads a Packers offense that ranks 12th in EPA/Play and fifth in Dropback EPA and ranks seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). The matchup isn't ideal, as the Giants defense has been stout as of late, but Love is on a heater and has the advantage.
Running Backs
De'Von Achane ranks fifth in total yards per game (105.8) and ninth in touchdowns (9). Here are his stats in the four games this season he has touched the ball more than twice: 233 yards and 4 touchdowns, 120 yards and 2 touchdowns, 165 yards and 1 touchdown, and 103 yards and 2 touchdowns. He's the best running back play on this two-game slate at home in an awesome matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Raheem Mostert has the same favorable matchup as Achane, averages over 15 opportunities per game, and has scored the second-most touchdowns (16) in the NFL.
Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in opportunities per game (22.8) and ranks tenth in total yards per game (96.1). He's one of the best plays on this two-game slate in a favorable spot against a Packers defense that only ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill is in the MVP conversation as he ranks second in targets per game (10.6), second in receptions per game (7.8), and first in receiving yards per game (123.4). He's an easy "don't overthink it" play in a solid spot at home against a Titans defense that ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Jaylen Waddle has seen eight targets in three straight games in one of the best offenses in football. In this favorable spot, Waddle is a strong play, even if you're playing Tyreek Hill as well.
The injury to Christian Watson opens things up for Romeo Doubs. Doubs leads the Packers in snaps played (610), targets (74), receptions (45), and receiving touchdowns (7).
The injury to Christian Watson opens things up for Jayden Reed, who has already been extremely impressive as a rookie. Reed leads the Packers in receiving yards (513).
Treylon Burks returned from a concussion to only play on ten offensive snaps last week. Without Burks playing an expanded role, the Titans really have no secondary pass-catching option behind DeAndre Hopkins. On the road in Miami, the Titans are 13.5-point underdogs. Tennessee is going to have to throw, and even though the matchup is a tough one, Hopkins projects to see double-digit targets on Monday night.
Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton, and Wan'Dale Robinson
Before the Giants' Week 13 bye, routes run for their wide receivers in Week 12 were as follows: Wan'Dale Robinson - 28, Jalin Hyatt - 25, and Darius Slayton - 18. All three are in play. The one to highlight moving forward is Hyatt. Here is what I wrote about him shortly after being drafted:
NFL passing offenses need speed to force the defense to cover the entire field and to increase their playmaking ability. Hyatt has blazing speed and put it on display at the combine, running a 4.4 40-yard dash. Hyatt has the height (6-foot-0) to go with his wheels and put five touchdowns on tape in one game against Alabama of all teams last season. That performance was part of his junior campaign that finished with 67 receptions for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns with a yards-per-catch average of 18.9. Despite receiving disappointing third-round draft capital, Hyatt still projects favorably as a deep threat for Brian Daboll on a weak Giants' receiving corps that shouldn't be difficult for Hyatt to climb should his talent translate to the pros.
Tight Ends
With Luke Musgrave injured, Tucker Kraft has played 96% and 95% of the offensive snaps over the past two weeks. The injury to Christian Watson should open up more targets for him as well. He's the best tight end play on the slate. He was a fun prospect this past offseason. Here is what I had to say about him shortly after being drafted:
Kraft can definitely play. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 254 pounds, he caught 65 passes for 773 yards and 6 touchdowns as a sophomore. Selected in the third round by a Green Bay franchise in dire need of an upgrade at the skill positions, Kraft is the preferred choice over Luke Musgrave due to his physicality, size, athleticism, and yards-after-catch ability.
Chigoziem Okonkwo ran a respectable 26 routes (65% of dropbacks) last week and has the athleticism to make a difference once he has the ball in his hands. On the road in Miami, the Titans are 13.5-point underdogs. Tennessee is going to have to throw, making Okonkwo a fun tournament dart.
Team Defenses
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins rank first in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7, and the return of Jalen Ramsey certainly has played a role in their success. They're 13.5-point home favorites and get to attack rookie quarterback Will Levis, who took six sacks just a week ago.
Green Bay Packers
Tommy DeVito has played extensive snaps in four games this season. Here are the number of times he's been sacked in those contests: 6, 5, 9, and 6. The Packers defense will be pinning their ears back.