Disclaimer
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
Game Strategy
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Spread: Cheifs -2.5
- Chiefs Implied Team Total: 24
- Eagles Implied Team Total: 21.5
In an exciting rematch of the wild Super Bowl from last season, there project to be fireworks and a lot of points scored in this one with two potent offenses going at it. Lean slight Chiefs in your builds, with this one being in Kansas City, but there really is no reason to shy away from either side.
Injury Roundup
- Dallas Goedert OUT
Captain Consideration:
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes II - Captain/Flex
Patrick Mahomes II ranks sixth in passing yards per game (271.3) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9) and leads a Chiefs offense that ranks sixth in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and sixth in Dropback EPA. Andy Reid and Mahomes have had two weeks to prepare and are at home against a good but not great Eagles defense that ranks 12th in EPA/Play Allowed and 10th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Mahomes is the best captain play in this game.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End/Defense/Kicker
Travis Kelce - Captain/Flex
Travis Kelce remains the elite alpha in the Chiefs' passing game. He ranks 16th in targets per game (9) and 10th in receptions per game (7.1) out of the entire NFL and is the best bet of all skill position players in this game to score a touchdown. And the way to attack the Eagles defense is over the middle of the field. Philadelphia's defense has allowed the 12th most fantasy points per game (10.6) to the tight end position this season.
Isiah Pacheco - Flex
Isiah Pacheco ranks 22nd in the entire league in opportunities per game (16.9) and has a decent matchup at home against an Eagles defense that only ranks 15th in Rush EPA Allowed. Teams have been able to run on Philadelphia this year. Expect Andy Reid to keep the trend alive in order to remain somewhat balanced in this competitive game.
Rashee Rice - Flex
The key to this Showdown slate is identifying what Andy Reid chose to emphasize over the bye week. The primary prediction here is Reid unleashes Rashee Rice. Before Kansas City's Week 10 bye, Rice was already trending in this direction as he had set a season-high offensive snap percentage in three straight games: 59%, 61%, and 68%. Patrick Mahomes II projects for a big game here, and he's likely taking at least one wide receiver with him. Rice, who has scored a touchdown and/or gone over 50+ receiving yards in five straight games, is the best bet.
Kadarius Toney - Flex
The key to this Showdown slate is identifying what Andy Reid chose to emphasize over the bye week. The secondary prediction is that Kadarius Toney's playing time will increase in this competitive game. Reid and Mahomes love to throw in the red zone, and that increases the value of Toney and his skillset, especially if he finds the end zone, at least for this one-game sample.
Mecole Hardman Jr. - Flex
The key to this Showdown slate is identifying what Andy Reid chose to emphasize over the bye week. The tertiary prediction is that Mecole Hardman will take over as the primary receiving weapon in the red zone. Hardman had that role early on last season prior to getting injured. Once he was out of the picture, Kadarius Toney was acquired and assumed that role. We don't know who it will be but it's a decent bet at least one of them sees a few money touches in and near the goal line. Hardman will be low-owned and could be the difference maker you need.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts - Captain/Flex
Jalen Hurts leads the NFL in quarterback fantasy points per game (23.5), thanks largely to 15 touchdown passes and 7 rushing touchdowns. The Tush Push/Brotherly Shove is very tough to stop, and if the Eagles can convert on at least one of them for a touchdown in this one, Hurts' chances of outscoring Mahomes will skyrocket. But it is important to note this game is in Kansas City, and the Chiefs defense has been legitimately awesome this year. The Chiefs defense ranks fourth in EPA/Play Allowed and second in Dropback EPA Allowed. This is why Hurts is the second-ranked captain play tonight behind Mahomes.
Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End/Defense/Kicker
A.J. Brown - Captain/Flex
The absence of Dallas Goedert in this one should funnel even more targets to the wide receivers since Philadelphia does not have a reliable number two tight end. And A.J. Brown has already been dominating the league this season. He ranks eighth in targets per game (10.2), seventh in receptions per game (7.4), third in receiving yards per game (111.7), and fifth in touchdown receptions (6).
DeVonta Smith - Captain/Flex
The absence of Dallas Goedert in this one should funnel even more targets to the wide receivers since Philadelphia does not have a reliable number two tight end. This has me excited for DeVonta Smith, with Steve Spagnuolo likely game-planning to slow down A.J. Brown. Smith is a very fun captain play.
D'Andre Swift - Flex
D'Andre Swift ranks ninth in opportunities per game (18.9) and has three games with 4+ receptions this year. With Dallas Goedert out and no reliable third pass catcher on the team, look for Swift to catch at least four passes in this one, making him a talented dual threat. The matchup sets up well for him against a Chiefs defense that has been good overall but only ranks 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.
Kenneth Gainwell - Flex
Kenneth Gainwell's usage is tough to predict, but the Eagles like to utilize him in the red zone and throw him the ball occasionally. In a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that only ranks 31st in Rush EPA Allowed, Gainwell could find pay dirt and end up in the optimal.