Kyle Pitts is young and uber-talented, playing a position that lacks depth. Coming into the NFL Draft at just 20 years old, his 4.49 40-yard dash, 6-foot-6 frame, and prolific college production prompted him to be drafted fourth overall. You’d have to look to the 1960s to find a tight end with that draft capital. Despite a historical lack of production from rookie tight ends, Pitts was drafted unanimously as a top-five tight end in redraft leagues and sat atop dynasty rankings before ever taking an NFL snap. To say expectations were high is an understatement.

A disappointing touchdown rate marred Kyle Pitts' rookie season, and his second year was cut short by injury, leaving his fantasy prospects for Year 3 uncertain despite impressive peripheral metrics.

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Let’s look at some of Pitts’ metrics through his first two seasons:

Despite pulling targets at an elite rate, Kyle Pitts has struggled to translate his impressive metrics into fantasy production. In his rookie season, he recorded 110 targets, the fifth-most among tight ends in 2021 and the third-most ever by a rookie tight end in NFL history. However, with just one touchdown scored on that high volume, his fantasy finish as TE11 was disappointing. If he had met his expected touchdown rate of 7.41, he would have been a top-three tight end. Despite this unlucky outcome, fantasy managers remained undeterred, drafting Pitts as a top-three tight end once again in 2022.

2022: Better Metrics and Worse Output

In 2022, Kyle Pitts displayed improvements in touchdown rate, target share, target rate, air yards share, and target depth. But his fantasy output declined due to the Atlanta Falcons' low pass volume of 24.4 attempts per game, one of the lowest in the past 40 years. Less than 60% of Pitts' targets were catchable, and Marcus Mariota, with the third-worst PFF passing grade among quarterbacks with ten-plus starts, hindered the offense. While Pitts had a significant role, the limited opportunities resulted in underwhelming numbers.

Changes In 2023

Looking ahead to 2023, there are reasons for optimism. The Falcons made a switch from Mariota to rookie Desmond Ridder, leading to an increase in pass attempts per game from 23.1 to 28.8. Although still relatively low, it represents an improvement over the historically low rate with Mariota. Ridder has shown promise, completing a higher percentage of his pass attempts, and a full offseason should aid in his development.

However, the Falcons' draft choices, including Bijan Robinson at eighth overall, complicate the offensive projection. The team's run-heavy approach, running the ball on 59.7% of plays in 2022 (second-most in the league), aligns with head coach Arthur Smith's tendency to rely on the ground game, as evidenced by his utilization of Derrick Henry in the past. The counter-argument is that Robinson's presence could keep defenses honest, potentially opening up more opportunities for Kyle Pitts and Drake London in the passing game.

How Will Drake London Impact Kyle Pitts?

In addition to the uncertainty surrounding Bijan Robinson's impact on the offense, second-year wide receiver Drake London showcased significant improvement toward the end of his rookie season, averaging 6.3 receptions and 83.3 yards per game with Desmond Ridder compared to 3.6 receptions and 41 yards per game with Marcus Mariota. Despite operating in a limited passing pie, London drew exceptional volume, with only Tyreek Hill recording more targets on a per route run basis last year. While London's air yards share and target depth ranked lower than Pitts, they operate in different parts of the field, allowing them to coexist and benefit from each other.

London can excel as a high-volume underneath option, while Pitts utilizes his speed on the outside to stretch defenses vertically. Despite being labeled as a tight end, Pitts lined up in the slot or out wide for a significant portion of his snaps, with only a 25.6% snap share in line last year, similar to Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz. This versatility makes Pitts a receiver who can be effectively deployed in the tight end slot position.

Some of the best fantasy tight ends play a similar role:

Pitts occupies a role that has the potential for high-end fantasy production and has already demonstrated his ability to attract targets.

The core of the argument boils down to a few key points:

• Will the Falcons increase their tempo?
• Will the Falcons opt for a more pass-heavy approach?
• Will Desmond Ridder provide a significant improvement over Marcus Mariota?

And therein lies the wide range of potential outcomes.

Forecasting a breakout season for Kyle Pitts requires envisioning a shift in Arthur Smith's long-standing coaching philosophy. Alternatively, third-round pick Desmond Ridder defying expectations and evolving into an elite quarterback is another possibility. Even with a prime Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown, Smith maintained a run-first offensive approach, hindering Tannehill's efficiency. For Smith to alter his ways, Ridder would likely need to perform at an elite level. The most probable scenario is that Pitts maintains his exceptional per-route metrics and remains a significant factor in a slow-paced, run-oriented offense.

Final Thoughts

Considering everything, Pitts is appropriately ranked as TE5 this year. The underlying metrics undeniably showcase his potential, but the system he operates in imposes a cap on his ceiling. For dynasty managers, Pitts remains an attractive trade target, as a coaching change or trade could unlock his true value. However, in Atlanta's current state, he faces challenges in achieving the highest level of success.

We are looking at an extraordinarily gifted tight end who has already demonstrated his dominance in a limited sample size. Placing Pitts in a high-powered offense would immediately position him as a contender for the TE1 title alongside Travis Kelce. However, he is not in such a situation. He finds himself in an underperforming offense with uncertainties surrounding the quarterback position. Beyond Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson, every other tight end has notable question marks this year. Investing in a young, athletic tight end like Pitts is a logical strategy. However, like any tight end outside of the "Big 3," Pitts carries a risk of underperforming. While his risk and upside are reflected in his value, he possesses the skills to reward managers who are willing to take another chance on him in 2023.

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