Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes II, and Jalen Hurts form the undisputed elite tier of quarterbacks, consistently chosen as the first three quarterbacks in drafts across all league formats. Typically, they're all off the board before the 20th pick in Underdog Best Ball drafts. So, the question isn't whether you must draft Josh Allen in the second round but rather whether you should. The only reason to worry is a potential change to Allen's aggressive rushing approach, but we don't think it's a legitimate concern, at least for 2023.

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Consistently Elite

By now, Josh Allen’s rise to prominence is well documented. Drafted seventh overall by the Bills in 2018, Allen was a raw prospect who played with and against inferior talent as the quarterback at Wyoming. He started early into his rookie year but struggled with accuracy (52.8% completion) and efficiency (10 touchdowns versus 12 interceptions in 320 attempts). However, his prowess for rushing, evident from his 631 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns, made him an enticing fantasy asset. Under Brian Daboll’s tutelage, Allen saw a marked improvement, and by his third season, he had established himself as a dual-threat signal caller of elite caliber.

Over the last three seasons, Allen has been consistently spectacular, boasting the best fantasy numbers in the league. With two consecutive seasons as QB1 and a subsequent season as QB2, he is in a league of his own.

Despite slipping to QB2 last season, arguably, it was his most impressive year, as it was his first without Daboll directing the offense. Concerns about the Bills stepping back without Daboll's influence proved unfounded as new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey delivered an equally impressive performance.

Bills Offense, 2021 vs. 2022

ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT?

The Bills’ offense has ranked second, third, and second in over the last three seasons, so questioning whether there’s room for improvement may seem illogical. Yet, watching the team and considering the offensive pieces in place, there’s a sense that the unit hasn’t peaked.

To ascend from great to the greatest, the Bills need to retain their core assets while bolstering any weak spots.

• Quarterback – Josh Allen, who is under a long-term contract, remains.
• Running Back – Devin Singletary is out, but Damien Harris and Latavius Murray have joined, and James Cook is likely to lead a three-way committee.
• Wide Receiver – Despite turning 30 this season, Stefon Diggs remains one of the league’s best. Gabe Davis continues as No. 2, and the departure of Isaiah McKenzie as WR3, an average contributor, should be easily addressed.
• Tight End – Dawson Knox returns, and the Bills added Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the draft; Kincaid could potentially become the team’s second-best receiver after Diggs.
• Offensive Line – This was the area most in need of improvement. Only left tackle Dion Dawkins and center Mitch Morse were above average last season. However, with the addition of experienced guards Connor McGovern and David Edwards, and second-round draft pick O’Cyrus Torrence, the interior O-line should greatly improve this season.

By either maintaining or improving every offensive position and potentially making a significant leap across the offensive line, the Bills are well poised. If Dalton Kincaid can quickly find his footing, the Bills' singular issue – a reliable second receiver capable of winning downfield one-on-one matchups – will be resolved.

Should We Worry About Allen's Pledge to Run Less?

We cannot underestimate the value of Josh Allen’s rushing output. Not only do rushing stats count more than passing stats in most fantasy leagues, but Allen relies on his rushing output more than most quarterbacks.

Over the last three seasons, Allen’s rushing stats accounted for 23.4% of his fantasy value. While not as outlandish as Jalen Hurts (38.5%), Lamar Jackson (35.1%), Kyler Murray (27.6%), or Daniel Jones (26.9%), it’s still a vital piece to his overall value.

The potential concern arises from Allen's public admission that he needs to run less for the sake of his career longevity - a sentiment echoed by key members of the Bills organization.

Allen (4/19/23):

"I’ve always been a football player first and a quarterback second," Allen told reporters Tuesday. "At some point that is going to have to switch. When that point is, I don’t know. I guess I’ll let my body tell me. I know I can’t continue to do this. I know when I’m using my youth, I feel like I can, but over the course of my career, I’m going to have to learn to adapt and change."

Head Coach Sean McDermott (3/27/23):

"I don't think that that's a healthy way to play quarterback in this league. It's really undefeated that things are going to happen when you play that style, that brand of football, and so we've got to get that adjusted. It's never going to go completely away, but it has to get to where it's workable.”

General Manager Brandon Beane (3/28/23):

"If it's the first quarter of Week 2....we don't need you trying to run over a linebacker or a safety."

With the GM, coach, and player all acknowledging his style needs to change, should we worry Allen’s rushing totals are going to fall off a cliff? While it’s possible, I think it’s overly pessimistic to expect a significant shift. Allen plays instinctively; the rushing decisions are in the heat of the moment. Even if he thinks running less is a good long-term idea, until we see him make those decisions with the game on the line, it’s better to assume he’ll remain aggressive.

However, we may see a decrease in Allen's goal-line rushes. Veteran tailbacks Damien Harris and Latavius Murray offer the Bills robust goal-line options they've lacked in recent years. Don’t be surprised to see fewer designed runs for Allen in the red zone.

To aid in your decision-making, here are two tables illustrating the importance of the ground game for Allen and others. The first table shows their fantasy value with rushing yardage intact but without their rushing touchdowns. The second table displays the past three years' fantasy values based solely on a quarterback’s passing numbers.

Fantasy QB Values, Per-Game (2020-2022), No Rushing Touchdowns

Without Allen’s 21 rushing touchdowns, he drops from the No. 1 fantasy quarterback to No. 2. This emphasizes the versatility of Allen’s overall production, even without red zone rushes.

Fantasy QB Values, Per-Game (2020-2022), Passing Stats Only

As you can see, Allen goes from the best fantasy quarterback to the fifth-best. But also consider that Tom Brady is retired. What’s important here is that Allen’s passing numbers, by themselves, make him one of the best options at the position. He falls back into the pack but is still a must-start player.

Final Thoughts

So, are Allen’s rushing stats a vital part of his elite value? Absolutely. But would his fantasy value tank with a decline in rushing stats? Not likely. Even if Allen's rushing stats were cut by half, provided he sustains his passing volume and efficiency, he's still likely a top-5 fantasy quarterback. While there’s an argument to be made for drafting Patrick Mahomes II or Jalen Hurts before you call Josh Allen’s name, he still belongs in the elite tier and can be drafted in the first two or three rounds with confidence.