Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players that have sustainable production should be anchors to your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players that have unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.
Is Travis Etienne Jr. a Top 6 Running Back?
Travis Etienne Jr. entered the season with a lot of questions. A limited receiving profile, red zone struggles, and the team drafting Tank Bigsby in the third round of the draft created a lot of concern about Etienne. Bigsby then became a preseason darling who was thought to take a healthy part of Etienne's job.
Etienne's production through six weeks was far superior to expectations. Etienne has been one of the highest-workload players in the league. Through six weeks, Etienne is second in snapshare (79%), sixth in rushing attempt share (63%), and fifth in route participation (62%). Etienne leads the league in rushing attempts (113), something that few expected was possible two months ago.
Overall, Etienne has turned this role into a top-six performance on a per-game basis (18.9 PPG), and he has produced without a receiving touchdown. He is locked into a big-time role and performing well with it, a role he should maintain or grow on into the second half of the season.
Verdict: Travis Etienne's performance is a great sign for his profile, and his top-six production can be maintained as long as he stays healthy.
Is Geno Smith struggling?
Geno Smith was the darling breakout of 2022. A second-round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, he lost his job with the Jets and became a career backup before taking over the Seattle offense after the Russell Wilson trade. His 2022 was nothing short of a revelation, finishing as QB5 in season-long points and QB9 in points per game (18.3). His 2023 season has been a disappointment. So far on the season, Smith ranks 24th in points per game (13), a significant downturn in fantasy production.
There are two major reasons for the fall.
First, Smith's volume is lower in 2023. In 2022, he dropped back to pass 38.4 times per game, the 14th-highest per-game percentage among quarterbacks with 100 dropbacks. This year he has dropped back to pass 36.4 times per game, which ranks 23rd in dropbacks per game among quarterbacks with at least one start.
Second, Smith's touchdown rate has regressed. In 2023, Smith has thrown a touchdown on 5 of 164 attempts (3%). He has an expected touchdown rate of 5.3%. In 2022, Smith threw for 30 touchdowns on 572 attempts, a touchdown rate of 5.2%, slightly higher than his expected rate of 4.9%.
These rates caused a fall in Smith's production, which is not a real reflection of worse performance.
On the season, Smith has a dropback rate success rate of 51.8%, which ranks 5th in the league behind only Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson, but his expected points added (EPA) ranks 19th. This is the sign of a quarterback with bad turnover performance or underperforming on big plays.
His success rate is an improvement from 2022 when Smith had a success rate of 50.2% on his dropbacks (9th) when ranked 17th in EPA/play (0.086).
Smith has actually been better in multiple aspects. He has the same aDOT as 2022 but jumped from 77.8% to 81% in adjusted completion percentage. Notably, Seattle's passing rate over expectation has jumped from 2% over expectation in 2022 to 4% over expectation in 2023, and the team's play volume has stayed similar, ranking 24th in both 2022 (61.4) and 2023 (61.0).
The fundamentals on Smith remain similar, but the fantasy production is down through 6 weeks. Overall, Smtih presents as a player who is outperforming his fantasy production to date and should take a step forward in the coming weeks.
Verdict: Geno Smith has backed up his breakout performance and should see an improvement in fantasy production in the coming weeks.