Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should anchor your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.
Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should anchor your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.
DALLAS COWBOYS PASSING OFFENSE
The Dallas Cowboys offense has been going through phases this season. Entering the season, the narrative was the move from Kellen Moore to Mike McCarthy as a play-caller would move to a run-heavy approach.
In the first six weeks, the team dropped back to pass at their expected rate by game situation.
In weeks 8 through 12, the team dropped back to pass 8% over expectation and saw a big jump in production from both CeeDee Lamb (28.5) and Dak Prescott. In that five-week span, Prescott (28.1) and Lamb (28.5) were the top scoring options at their positions.
In weeks 13 through 16, the passing rate has slipped back toward league average pass rates, with the team dropping back to pass 1% under expectation, with Prescott falling to QB8 (18.2) and Lamb to WR2 (23.9) during that four-week stretch.
The sample size is small, so there are not huge conclusions to draw from the stretch, but the downturn heading into the season is a disappointment. On the season, the team has a passing rate over expectation of 3%, which is between Kellen Moore's tenure as Dallas's offensive coordinator and Mike McCarthy's tenure in Green Bay.
Verdict: Dallas's offense is still high performing, but has taken a step back in passing rate, which could reduce some of the ceiling for Prescott and Lamb to finish the season. Overall, the passing rate is encouraging for the future of the Dallas offense heading into 2024.
Baltimore's Passing Offense
Coming into the season, a big question was how the Baltimore Ravens would look in the post Greg Roman offense.
In discussing Mark Andrews in the offseason, we wrote:
The key question for Andrews is the volume of the Baltimore passing game. In his tenure in the league, Baltimore has been one of the most run-centric teams in the league. One way to measure this is passing rate over expectation, which compares how often a team threw the ball relative to the league average in similar game situations. In each year of Andrews's career, Baltimore has thrown it less than expectation:
- 2018: 6% below expectation
- 2019: 7% below expectation
- 2020: 10% below expectation
- 2021: 1% below expectation
- 2022: 4% below expectation
The closest season Baltimore was to passing at a league average expectation was 2021, when Andrews finished as TE1. Andrews's finish as TE1 while his team was below passing game expectation was the only TE1 season since 2011 with a negative passing rate.
Andrews' best season was 2021 when the team was 1% below expectation, the most pass-heavy Baltimore has been in Lamar Jackson's tenure as the Baltimore quarterback.
Under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, there were high hopes of a changing offensive structure. Through 16 weeks, the change has been stark. In 2023, Baltimore has passed 1% over expectation, the most pass-friendly system Jackson has played in during his Baltimore career.
The specifics are also interesting. During all game situations, the team has been at or above pass expectation, besides 2nd-and-short (-1% under expectation) and 3rd-and-short (-22% under expectation).
By comparison, the only game situation the team was above passing expectation was on 2nd-and-long (4% over expectation).
The results have been excellent. Lamar Jackson has a career high in passing yardage before week 17 and is the favorite to win the MVP, which begs the question of why this was not the offensive structure earlier in Jackson's career.
Verdict: After years of Baltimore and fantasy GMs hoping for Baltimore to throw the ball more frequently, the offense has finally turned more pass-friendly. This has created a create environment for Jackson, who is an elite option in the final week of the fantasy season, and the team is well situated with Jackson, Flowers, and Andrews heading into 2024.