Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should anchor your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.
Mike Evans Continued Brilliance
Entering the 2023 season, there was a real question about whether Mike Evans could maintain fantasy production with Baker Mayfield replacing Tom Brady at quarterback. Evans has thrived with Mayfield at quarterback, including tying his second-best season in yards per target (9.8). Evans has also improved over 2022, seeing an uptick in targets from 8.5 to 8.6 per game while increasing from 74.9 to 84.3 yards per game, his third-best season in yards per game.
Mike Evans is in his 10th season and is 10-for-10 in 1000 yards seasons, the most for a wide receiver to start a season in NFL history.
Is this sustainable?
Yes.
Evans’s career has been extremely durable, and the perceived downgrade of quarterback has not been a problem for his production. From a fantasy football perspective, Evans has been right on point as a 1000-yard receiver, averaging 8.6 targets per game, 5 receptions per game, 76.8 receiving yards per game, and 0.61 touchdowns per game, all in line with his career production.
What is interesting is that Evans has done this while Mayfield was performing at or below his career averages. For example, in yards per attempt, Mayfield (6.8) is below his career average (7.2). Mayfield’s touchdown rate (4.4%) is also slightly below his career average of 4.5%.
Evans’s production is also right in line with his historical averages. His 2.06 yards per route run is down from the past two seasons but right in line with his career average. Likewise, Evans’s target rate, 22.7%, is right in line with his career average of 22.6%.
Verdict: Evans is performing in line with his consistently predictable fantasy career. He is a consistent year-over-year top 24 wide receiver, performing exactly in line with his career averages, but is overlooked because people are looking for the shiny new flavor of the week.
CeeDee Lamb’s Heater
The Dallas Cowboys have been on a heater since their Week 7 bye. In the past six weeks, Lamb has averaged 29.2 points per game, the WR1 in scoring since Dallas returned from their bye.
The hot stretch is a reflection of a change in offensive scheme.
On the season, Dallas has a passing rate of 3% over expectation, meaning they throw the ball 3% more than you would expect based on their game situation. However, the team has been a tale of two halves. Before the team’s bye, the team threw 2% under expectation, in line with their passing rate from prior offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s tenure. Since their bye, the team has thrown 8% over expectation, much more in line with McCarthy’s time as a playcaller in Green Bay.
This has coincided with an emphasis on Lamb in the passing game. Before the bye, Lam was targeted on 21% of his routes and accounted for 22% of the team’s targets. Since the bye, Lamb has been targeted on 32% of his routes and has a target share of 34%.
By throwing more and getting the ball in Lamb’s hand since the bye, the team has done the most efficient thing offensively (passing) in the most effective way (to Lamb). The team has flourished as a result. Dak Prescott is a leading MVP contender, and Lamb is the WR1 in fantasy scoring during the stretch.
Head coach Mike McCarthy is fully in his bag as one of the pass-heaviest playcallers in the league and is following through on his history of getting the ball into the hands of his best pass catcher, the way he did in Green Bay with Davante Adams.
Verdict: CeeDee Lamb is performing as one of the best wide receivers in the league in an offense dedicated to featuring him. With the continued strong play from Prescott, Lamb can continue as an elite WR1 and true difference-maker in fantasy football.