Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should anchor your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.
Is this real?
Is Quentin Johnston a Bust?
Quentin Johnston has struggled mightily as a rookie. On the season, Johnston has 21 receptions, 190 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. This is well below the remaining first-round wide receivers.
| Wide Receiver | Target | Rec | Rec/Yards | TD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 70 | 48 | 646 | 7 | 13.7 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 55 | 38 | 406 | 2 | 8.2 |
| Zay Flowers | 74 | 47 | 709 | 2 | 11.9 |
| Quentin Johnston | 36 | 21 | 190 | 1 | 4.2 |
Johnston has been clearly worse than the rest of the first-round rookie wide receivers and ranks 13th in receptions among rookies. Johnston started slow, running routes on 28% in the first three weeks of the season, while Mike Williams was in the lineup. After Williams was injured in week 3, Johnston entered the lineup as the starter in weeks 4 through 12. Johnston has jumped up to 70% route participation since week 4, but he has struggled to produce.
Johnston's production is a major concern about his trajectory. For fantasy production, the most important skill is earning targets, a place where Johnston has struggled mightily. On the season, Johnston has been targeted on only 14% of his routes, which ranks 70th out of 91 receivers with at least 200 routes.
The nature of the targets is also a dangerous sign. Of the wide receivers with at least 200 routes, Johnston rates first in percentage of targets that are contested (41.7%). This leaves Johnston with a target per open route rate (TPORR) of 8.5%, which ranks 84th out of 91, a very poor sign of future production.
Even when Johnston is targeted, Johnston has struggled. On the season, Johnston has an aDOT of 11.8 but has struggled to capitalize on the yardage. Johnston is 39% under his air yards realized based on his aDOT, the worst in the league.
Verdict: Overall, Johnston's production has been a major disappointment and well behind the success track of first-round picks. He has time to rebound, but he needs to make a sharp change of direction in his season and career.
Kyren Williams a Dominant RB1?
Kyren Williams has returned from injured reserve to elite RB1 type production in his first game back against Arizona. Williams had 16 carries, 143 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 61 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns.
Williams played 61% of the team's offensive snaps, which was well below the 84% snap share from the first six weeks of the season, but the game script had a big impact on the game. In the first half, Williams had 29 of the 40 snaps, including 14 touches, 120 yards, and a touchdown. He played only 50% of the snaps in the second half of a three-score blowout, which kept his snap share down to only 61% of the team's snaps.
Williams did not profile as a bellcow running back in college, but he is clearly trusted by the LA Rams coaching staff and locked into a role with 18.8 expected points per game, good for the third highest expectation at the running back position. His usage in week 12 is a good sign of his return to his high-level role in the offense.
Verdict: The time on injured reserve did nothing to drop Kyren Williams in his leading role in the Rams' backfield. He is an RB1 when healthy for the remainder of the season.