Can Kyle Hamilton Rebound in 2023?

Here are the prior articles in this series:

Can Shaquille Leonard Rebound in 2023?
Can Cole Holcomb Rebound in 2023?
Can T.J. Watt Rebound in 2023?
Can Haason Reddick Rebound in 2023?
Can Azeez Al-Shaair Rebound in 2023?
Can Divine Deablo Rebound in 2023?

One of the most crucial days in the NFL calendar is the draft. On this day, your team and its myriad of executives will scour high and low for anyone they deem to be a fit for their long-term vision. Some are big winners; others must answer for poor results. The most crucial part of this important day is round one. In this opening round, your team is expected to hit big. If you hit in the later rounds, you’re looked at as a genius because the expectations aren’t there. If you miss later, it doesn’t matter because “it was a seventh-round pick.” If you miss in the first, then the fanbase and, most importantly, the owner begins to question the competency of the decision-makers in the organization. The Baltimore Ravens have done well with these picks, drafting the likes of Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews, so when they’re on the clock, the league watches. I think they’ve hit a gem in 2022 with Kyle Hamilton.

Your Typical Rookie Year

In the 2022 NFL Draft, the Ravens used a first-round pick on Safety Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton was widely regarded as the best player at his position and was the first Safety drafted. The expectations of a first-round defender are high as is, but when you have a defensive head coach in John Harbaugh and a history of dominant defenders such as Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, the expectations can seem almost overwhelming. Hamilton entered the league as a backup behind veterans Marcus Williams and Chuck Clark. Williams started off as an explosive IDP asset with 22 tackles and three interceptions in the first two games of the season but was injured in Week 5 and lost for the majority of his season. From Week 5 to Week 14, we got to see a glimpse of who Hamilton was. After back-to-back zero-point weeks in Weeks 4 and 5, we saw what would be a run-of-the-mill type of year for a first-year player, underwhelming stats with a splash play here and there. What has me most excited, however, was the consistency he showed when on the field. He finished his rookie year with 62 total tackles, five defended passes, and two sacks. This was accomplished in 14 games.

A Change in Circumstances

Putting up these numbers as a backup player is noteworthy. As you can see from the data, he not only affects the game in pass coverage but has the ability to rush the quarterback when asked. The playing time was limited early, but as he gained experience throughout the season, his numbers rose. This year, since the team moved on from Chuck Clark, he will be starting alongside a healthy Marcus Williams, who may be the most dynamic safety duo in the entire league. We need to contextualize what we see here. Williams will garner statistics, and we have seen him explode multiple times, which begs the question, “What will this do to Hamilton’s potential production?”. Clark was a former 6th-round pick that overachieved his draft selection and was a notable IDP defensive back for the better part of five years. This past season, he achieved 100+ tackles but really failed to do much else. This is where the benefit of Hamilton’s athleticism will shine through these semi-big shoes he must fill. Hamilton is a multi-faceted playmaker who can produce statistics regardless of the game plan and should achieve 100+ tackles this next season with a few splash stats to really tie it all together. The Ravens as a team have shown us an ability for there to be multiple contributors at the safety position, and Hamilton is the more talented of the two starters.

What Is His Value?

While I do think Hamilton rebounds effectively and will contribute to your IDP roster, we need to understand that there is a risk when trusting a first-year starter. He’s also a somewhat high-profile defender that other managers will be looking to draft in your redraft leagues. He isn’t in the class of Derwin James or Minkah Fitzpatrick yet, but he needs to be in that next group. He is easily a top-five player to draft at the position, and you will most likely be able to get him as the 7th or 8th safety off the board. I am of the mindset that he should be the fourth-highest targeted player behind the two I named previously and Jalen Pitre. His upside is in the 120-tackle range with some sacks and interceptions, and there will be fear of missing out if you don’t get him because you were unwilling to spend the draft pick earlier than others. In Dynasty, you need to have diamond hands with him. He has all the makings of a player you can build a dynasty roster around. In a world where safeties can be a dime a dozen, he has the upside of a player we talk about for the next 5 years. He was a highly coveted real-life draft pick, and this will transition to fantasy production in his first real year as a starter. With a full offseason under his belt, new starting confidence, and, most importantly, the tutelage of a defensive-minded system, he will be a successful player in any format you play him.

Conclusion

IDP fantasy football many times comes down to sheer luck. I am of the mindset that luck can be enhanced by preparation. If you paid attention to what Baltimore did last season in the absence of Williams, with Hamilton playing more, then you saw flashes of what could be the next great defensive back in the NFL. He finally will get the opportunity to do what the Ravens drafted him to do, fly around the field and make plays. He has the benefit of being surrounded by other great defensive players, such as Marlon Humphrey and Roquan Smith, as well as the support and wisdom of a Super Bowl-winning head coach. There isn’t much to dislike about his current circumstance, and his talent has never been the issue. This year, make sure you get on the Hamilton hype train before it leaves the station. He will be this year's fastest-rising defensive star!

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