Fantasy football has a long history of recency bias. This means the masses usually look too hard at what happened last year and expect those stats and performances to carry over to the current season.
That's not always the case. Sure, players who put up good seasons generally put up good seasons. And players who generate bad stats often put up bad stats.
But a lot of players have ups and downs. To excel as a fantasy football player, determining which downs are anomalies and identifying players who will rebound is vital.
That's what this weekly series is all about. Each Sunday, we'll give you a player who will bounce back from a subpar 2022 and turn in better numbers for you this season. These are the players you should target in your upcoming drafts.
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This Week's Rebound IDP: DE Haason Reddick, Philadelphia Eagles
Picture this. You are a contracted employee for a company that is down on its luck. You are a top performer at the company, achieving high praise through your efforts, and the results show on paper and in your field. Suddenly, an opportunity arises to go to a bigger company in your field, and they’re willing to pay handsomely. But your competition is fiercer. You accept the position, and while you may be doing the same job, your role and your surroundings are much different than before. Your results, although still considered good, just aren’t what they once were in your first year here. This scenario directly reflects the trajectory of Hasson Reddick. Reddick, who was a top edge rusher in 2021, finished as a top-10 talent on his second team in the NFL, the Carolina Panthers. His first stint with his third team, the Philadelphia Eagles, was far from this elite performance. He finished outside of the top 20 players and seemingly lost all the capital he had built up. This was the outlier year. Reddick is poised for a comeback this year, and here is why.
Positional Disparity and Decreased Statistics
It finally felt like Reddick was going to live up to his draft spot, pick 13 overall by the Arizona Cardinals. Then, the positional disparity that affected much of the IDP landscape happened. He went from a DE to an LB, which may seem nominal, but this heavily shifted the landscape of IDP fantasy football, most notably in dynasty leagues. As a linebacker, you are not worth a starting spot if you don’t contribute 70+ tackles. These tackle numbers are the soul of any quality linebacker in IDP. As a defensive end, 50-60 tackles are elite! Pair these numbers with a healthy amount of sacks, and you have yourself a top talent at defensive end. Unfortunately for Reddick, he moved from DE to LB in his first season as an Eagle. This wasn’t the only sudden change that affected Reddick’s value. Reddick also had his worst season tackle total since his rookie year. This dip in tackles made him a sack-dependent spot starter at linebacker. If you’re a fan of these articles, you’ll not my consistent message in linebackers. If you aren’t putting up heavy or consistent tackle numbers, you can’t be trusted as a player to build around. As a defensive end, you must be able to sack the Quarterback. Reddick has always had the ability to do the latter and continued to prove why even in his down season.
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What Has Changed?
The most crucial change is Reddick is back to being a DE in most formats. This directly affects his value in both redraft and dynasty leagues, but we are going to focus on dynasty here. In 2021, Reddick was easily a top 5 dynasty defensive end to have, but that was a long time ago. He coming into this season as a starter on an Eagles team loaded with pass-rushing talent. He has proven that when he has solid running mates opposite him, he can get to the quarterback. Despite his decreased tackle numbers, Reddick had his career high in sacks with 16, including 3 straight multi-sack games and eight straight games where he recorded a sack. Had he been listed as a DE last season, he would have finished just outside the top ten in points. He is still a top-seven dynasty defensive end, but his value may be even higher considering the stink last season may have put on his name. This change is huge. In redraft, he likely falls further than deserved as the new crop of edge-rushing names as well as familiar faces get over-drafted. The reality is, if you can get Reddick in a later round, he is arguably the best value add for your team. He is gold when listed as a DE but poison if listed as an LB.
What should we expect in 2023?
A return to his 2021 form is what I expect. I think he will generate more points in the tackle department than last season, but he will also likely come back to Earth with sacks. If he can get to the 50-55 tackle range with 10-12 sacks, he would be an elite option at defensive end and likely help you build a winner. This isn’t an unreasonable stat line to obtain. If you take out his rookie season, he averages 65 tackles a season. He has also accumulated three straight seasons with double-digit sacks. It is more realistic to believe last season was his low-end outlier and that he returns as a top option than it is to believe he is a washed player who can’t play any longer. Don’t get caught up on age and recency biases. His eligibility at the position has changed, and he has a full offseason to continue to improve his skills and knowledge within the defense. The Eagles have heavily invested in their defense, and that will directly benefit all players. The better talent that surrounds you, the more opportunities for mismatches that benefit the defenders. Reddick is a veteran in this league who can and will make Quarterbacks think about his presence on the field.
Conclusion
Hasson Reddick was a late bloomer as a fantasy-relevant player, but these recent changes in team and positional eligibility have increased his value in a positive way. He plays a pivotal role on an ascending team and defense and will have had more time to truly hone his skills within a system that is continuously bringing in top-tier talent. Reddick, when in the right system, has proven an ability to win games for IDP rosters, and we will see this version of him once again in 2023. Whether he is your later-round value pick or over-drafted, if you take him ahead of the big-name new guys, he will benefit your team in the long run and even have a week-winning performance or two. Don’t be the guy who waited too long or wasn’t willing to take a little risk with Reddick. The reward for this heavily outweighs the heartburn you may get with this pick or the razzing from your buddies, rivals, or coworkers. Reddick rebounds this season in a big way!
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