Should you fade Javon Hargrave?

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Should You Avoid Micah Parsons?
Should You Avoid Cody Barton?
Should You Avoid Kyle Dugger?
Should You Avoid Julian Love?

One of the most popular food selections at any event, whether it is watching your hometown football team or the traveling circus, is cotton candy. This may come off as the hottest take I’ve had all year, but I am not a fan for many reasons. When you see someone selling cotton candy, it is usually this massive production. At the stand, you see the vendor dazzling you while wrapping it around the stick. There’s almost a magical way he procures a large amount of cotton onto the stick. If you’re in the stands, there’s usually a louder-than-life salesperson who could be trying different voices or pitches to wow you into buying their product. One thing is for certain when breaking down cotton candy. There is more fluff than there is substance. You likely aren’t basing your diet around the gimmicky fair food. The same can be said for one of last year’s surprise darlings in IDP, Javon Hargrave. You shouldn’t build your defensive line around this player, and just like cotton candy, there may be more fluff with his statistics than you think.

A Monster Season

Hargrave started last season as pedestrian as you can get. When selecting a defensive lineman, it is important to understand that the position is extremely deep this season. Whether it was the change was due to an influx of talent in the draft, or the positional changes that have impacted the IDP landscape, you need not look far for a solid defensive lineman. Through the first seven weeks of the season, he had just 11 total tackles and one sack. He was likely buried on fantasy manager’s bench or on your waiver wire. Then Week 8, something magical happened. There was a three-week period between Week 8 and Week 10 where Hargrave was arguably the league's best defensive lineman. He compiled 28 total tackles and six sacks in that three-week span alone. He almost tripled his tackle total and had six times the number of sacks in just three weeks! He quickly came back down to Earth in Week 11 against the Colts and finished the season out with decent stats, but nothing at all like the explosion of production we saw last season. He finished the year with 60 total tackles and 11 sacks, as well as a few miscellaneous stats such as defended passes (2) and fumbles forced (1) and recovered (2).

Regressing to the Mean

Prior to this fantasy landscape-changing three-game stretch, Hargrave was a relatively unknown waiver-wire player. This should come to the surprise of no one, but runs like he had last season just don’t happen for non-elite players. Hargrave, his whole career prior to this, was a middle-of-the-pack interior defensive lineman in terms of IDP fantasy football. Last season he achieved his career high in sacks, but over half of them occurred in this three-game monstrosity. He also finished with his third-highest tackle total but had nearly half of those in that same span of time. This is not indicative of who he is as a player, and we need to understand that, while his stats on paper for last season look great, if you took those three weeks away, he would likely not have made any roster nor have been drafted in redraft leagues. He has also turned the dreaded age of 30 years old, which in NFL circles may as well be 85 with the way you’re used and treated. If these weren’t enough to make you shy away from him, he also starts a new journey this season on a defense already loaded with talent in San Francisco.

Small Fish, Big Pond

Hargrave joins a defense this season absolutely loaded from the line all the way to the secondary. He will be in the interior again this season alongside veteran Arik Armstead and will be flanked on the outside by Drake Jackson and arguably the NFL’s best pass rusher Nick Bosa. There may be an opportunity for residual points here just by the amount of sheer talent that surrounds him, but he is likely the third- or fourth-best player on this line and needs to be drafted as such. It is far easier to predict that we see the player Hargrave was prior to Week 8 of last year than it is to expect he is that guy we saw briefly last season for an extended period. Don’t fall in love with stats on paper. When looking deeper into last season, it is important to take note that Hargrave had eight games with two or fewer tackles. This was in part due to his role in the Philadelphia defensive line, arguably in the same class as the 49ers, so we should expect similar production from Hargrave, who is likely more of a space eater than a stat grabber. Remember that Hargrave has given us no reason to believe he can consistently contribute to increased statistics. He will be there more to fill space and alter schemes than to make the play on defense.

Conclusion

Whether you’re a fan of cotton candy or not, the metaphor is about fluff versus substance. The resume for Hargrave shows us he is a below-average player who had an elite stretch of games. There isn’t enough value in his game to warrant a roster spot, and for my money, he would be on the waiver wire to start the season. He’s a watchlist guy at best that needs to prove that he can be an effective cog in the machine that is the San Francisco defense. Hargrave, over the years, has shown us he’s all sizzle, no steak. Last season was an anomaly and will not be replicated. Let someone else fall for the numbers that you’ve broken down. And remember, the next time you’re looking for that snack at the big event you’re going to, make sure to get the nachos or a pretzel and let the kiddos get the cotton candy. Trust me, you’ll get full, and it will taste oh so sweet!

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