Why you should fade Kyle Dugger

More from this series:

Should You Avoid Patrick Queen?
Should You Avoid Micah Parsons?
Should You Avoid Cody Barton?

Most movies have a character or a premise that includes the underdog rising to the occasion after being overlooked time and time again. When no one else believed in him or her, they didn’t allow those naysayers the benefit of seeing them fail. Some of the best movies ever made are exactly this premise. What if I told you that sometimes, the overlooked person is simply not worth that second or third chance? There is a reason we love these movies so much; they don’t often happen, so when they do, it feels magical. The NFL is a results-based business, and IDP fantasy is very much "What have you done for me lately?" Maybe there is something to our natural inclination to sometimes underestimate what we see. One of my favorite sayings is, "Trust your gut." Well, my gut is telling me that we need to let the hopes that Kyle Dugger is a top safety for IDP go by the wayside. There are also plenty of reasons why…

What We Know About Dugger

Kyle Dugger was a second-round pick out of Division II Lenoir-Rhyne University. With the high draft capital used to acquire him, much was expected in his rookie season. Dugger delivered a solid 64 total tackles but no other major statistics aside from a lone defended pass. In his second year, the expectations rose, and again Dugger delivered with 93 total tackles along with four interceptions as well as a very untimely ejection in round one of the fantasy playoffs when he was in an altercation with Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman. Last season when you expected to begin seeing the ceiling, there was severe disappointment. In his third year in a system with little coaching turnover, he effectively flopped to start the season and salvaged what could have been one of the most disappointing IDP seasons with a miraculous three defensive touchdowns. He finished the year with 78 total tackles, a regression from his previous season. Was this due to the never-ending saga that was the lack of coordinators? Or was this a sign of things to come for a player who had significantly overachieved in his field? Dugger will be looking to get back into his 2021 form as the Patriots continue to return to their past glory.

Why You Need to Avoid Him

Normally when a player steadily improves in two of his first three seasons, he is given a pass for the bad year, and we act as if it were an outlier. I agree with this strategy in most scenarios, but this one feels different with Dugger. For starters, the numbers he produced through the first ten weeks were downright abysmal. He had just 27 tackles and two defended passes. He also had one defensive touchdown in this span which also included his bye week. Something changed after the bye week, and he went on a semi-tear and finished the season with just one game under 5 total tackles. Had these numbers been produced throughout the season, I wouldn’t hesitate to declare him a hold, but we have seen some serious issues from Dugger throughout his tenure with the Pats. Whether it has been multiple injuries, illness, or even an ejection in December of 2021, Dugger just doesn’t give us the consistency we see with others at his position. This past season should have been an eye-opening campaign for Dugger as a dynasty asset. He has all the tools to help you win but has become a boom or bust option that I would lean to bust over boom. Those who read these know I am not a Debbie Downer. There is an upside to Dugger’s game, we just have to identify it.

What Should His Value Be?

Players like Kyle Dugger are lessons for IDP managers. Sometimes you need to cut bait and move on from a player before others do. He is a high-upside DB2 with the potential to be a DB3 or DB1 in any given week. The safety position is simply too talented to allow players with that volatility to be regular starters in your lineup. That doesn’t mean he isn’t worth a roster spot, though. For me, he is a guy I need to see string together multiple weeks as how he ended last season. Frankly, I don’t see him replicating that streak, and he won’t have three touchdowns next season. In Dynasty, I would keep him only as a depth option and spot starter, but I wouldn’t trade for him as other managers likely wouldn’t give you much for him if they even attempted to trade for him. In redraft, I would take him as a DB3 starter or first guy off the bench asset, but nothing more. He is a tricky player that has the façade of a playmaker with stats that you can find on almost any team’s secondary. Normally I am all in on a defender in a system led by a defense-first head coach, but the Patriots just seem clunky to me, and all fantasy viable options take another step back in situations like this, IDP and offense alike.

Conclusion

Kyle Dugger was a fantasy darling in his first two seasons, as he landed in what many thought was a sweet spot for safety. He gave us many reasons to buy into the hype, but a crash and burn of that caliber gives me cause for concern about his long-term viability. This is a pivotal year for him and one that I am avoiding a all costs. He hasn’t shown the relative consistency that his contemporaries at the position have shown us, and his name makes him go a little higher than some of the players who outscored him, including Harrison Smith and a newly-signed Jessie Bates. Don’t chase past statistics; chase what is happening in front of you. Dugger may be on a team, but he isn’t going to win you games and has shown us an ability to lose one for you. Do what you would do had this been a player on the Patriots offense, and think twice before you draft him!

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