The Guru and the Godfather: Week 15

Photo: USA Today Sports

John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2023 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

It's Week 15, which makes it playoff time in most IDP leagues. It's an easy enough equation from here out. Win, and you get to keep playing. You move one step closer to the goal every fantasy manager has to open the season—winning the whole damn thing.

Lose, and it's game over. See you next summer.

The Guru and Godfather know that as well as anyone (don't ask the former about missing the playoffs in the King's Classic Butkus Division by three points out of almost 4,000). So, while there's a little looking back at the back end of this week's column, the rest is all about moving forward.

Survive and advance.

It's the IDP Playoffs, so there's no point in wasting time. Let's win some matchups. Which defensive lineman is poised for a sack attack that will lead fantasy managers to victory, and who will pull an Invisible Man at the worst possible time?

GURU: There is nothing worse than taking a zero from a defensive player in a playoff game. One reason I am high on Carl Granderson of the New Orleans Saints this week is because, barring an injury, there is virtually no chance he will give us a goose egg. The guy is on pace for 47 tackles and 36 assists, so the floor is high, and he will contribute. Granderson will never win the sack title, but he has six and a half sacks this year and is more than capable of contributing in that area. On the high side, it's hard to beat a matchup with the Giants, who have given up an average of over five sacks per game since week seven and have allowed a whopping 19 to the edge position over their last seven outings. I have Granderson projected for 5 combined tackles with a sack-and-a-half and half a turnover this week.

Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns looked a little better on the field last week, but he is clearly not healthy. He's battled injuries all season and has all but vanished over the Browns' last three games. In week twelve, he recorded two tackles and an assist. In week fourteen, Garrett gave us one lonesome tackle. Between those games, he turned in the proverbial goose egg versus the Rams. This might be the week he gets back on track, but I can't take that risk unless I have no quality depth on my roster. Besides, the Bears are no longer the team handing out sacks like candy at Halloween early in the year. They have surrendered fewer than two per game on average since week seven.

GODFATHER: I'm not sitting Myles Garrett. Just can't. Not saying my esteemed colleague's logic isn't sound. But if he blows up on the bench, that's the kind of call that will haunt you until May—of 2026.

The New York Jets blew out the Houston Texans last week, but it's more likely that Zach Wilson was kidnapped by aliens and replaced by a doppelganger than that Wilson will throw for over 300 yards, and the Jets will score 30 points again. No team in the AFC has allowed more sacks (55) or more fantasy points to defensive ends than the Jets this season. Whether it's Bradley Chubb or Andrew Van Ginkel, both Dolphins' edge rushers have considerable IDP appeal in Week 15.

On the flip side of that scale, no team in the NFC has given up fewer fantasy points to defensive ends than the New Orleans Saints. Kayvon Thibodeaux of the New York Giants has been a top-10 IDP option in many scoring systems this year, but his advanced metrics haven't been as elite as his fantasy production. The table is set here for the sort of disappointing outing that gets teams bounced from the playoffs.

You know what's next—time to talk linebackers. We know (or hope) that elite options like Foyesade Oluokun of the Jacksonville Jaguars will post big numbers. But what second or third-tier option could crash the party among the big dogs? Which one will whimper his way to the sort of paltry stat line that gets teams bounced this time of year?

GURU: I am counting heavily on Bengals linebackers this week. The Vikings are a different team since the loss of Kirk Cousins. They are leaning much harder on the run these days. Early in the year, they were a great matchup for corners. Since week seven, they have allowed the third most points to the linebacker position, at over 31 points per game. Just look at the results for linebackers in this matchup. In week seven, it was Fred Warner at 7-6 with a pass breakup and Dre Greenlaw at 8-2. Week eight saw Quay Walker go 7-3 with a pass defended and DeVondre Campbell 10-4. Week nine is when the splash plays started coming, with Nate Landman at 5-5-1 with a PD. In week ten, it was Demario Davis with 6-3-1, followed by Josey Jewell's 5-1 and a fumble recovery and Alex Singleton at 11-5. Chicago's T.J. Edwards went 6-0 with a pick, and Tremaine Edmunds 5-2 and a forced fumble. Then, after the bye, it was Robert Spillane at 7-3-1 last week. If you have Logan Wilson or Germaine Pratt, play them.

Playing a Philadelphia Eagles linebacker this week might be IDP suicide. Due to a combination of injuries and poor play, this group has been a moving target all season. Against the Cowboys last week, Zach Cunningham and Josh Morrow played less than 80% of the snaps, while Shaquille Leonard got his feet wet with 14 snaps. With a full week to acclimate, will Leonard have a substantially bigger role, and if so, at the expense of who? There is simply too much risk to trust any of these guys in a playoff game.

GODFATHER: This pains me. Like, it's physically uncomfortable to type. Because Detroit Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone just isn't, um, good. He's having probably the best season of his career, and he still takes bad angles and has a tendency to cheap-shot people. But he's playing every snap (essentially) for the Lions, he ranks just outside the top 20 in terms of fantasy points per game among linebackers, and this week, he faces a Denver Broncos team that has paced the league in fantasy points allowed to linebackers most of the season.

Lavonte David of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been an excellent linebacker for a very long time. When the time comes, there will be a legitimate argument for his inclusion in Canton—he might be the best coverage linebacker in NFL history. But David has been a better NFL player (and bigger name) than IDP option for a few years now, and a bad matchup with a banged-up Packers team makes 7-8 total tackles a lot closer to David's fantasy ceiling than his floor this week.