NFL Media and offense-only fantasy writers alike are bemoaning an uneventful start to the 2023 league year. While they await the fates of Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson, fans of defense are reveling in the news of huge contracts for Pro-Bowl tackles, high-risk bets on pass-rushers, movement of blue-chip fantasy linebackers, and trades of big-name cornerbacks.
These players dominate the headlines and pose opportunities for teammates left behind. Incoming free agents can question some returning players’ roles while complementing others. IDP fantasy gamers can increase the value of their rosters by recognizing these changes and cashing out players before coverage intensifies in August. IDP gamers need not await observations of preseason games before placing bets on new situations.
This article is the second of two pieces covering returning players whose situation and opportunity will impact teammates' arrivals and departures. The first piece addressed defenders who stand to gain opportunity due to personnel changes around them. A player on the move harms each of the profiled players below.
On the Move: SAF Julian Love (Signed by the Seahawks)
Faller: SAF Jamal Adams, Seahawks
In the risers article, we highlighted Panthers’ safety, Jeremy Chinn. His team signed Vonn Bell to play alongside incumbent Xavier Woods. The pairing should free up Chinn to play primarily in the second level as a slot defender and box in big nickel and big dime personnel.
Find defensive players to target with our IDP Risers here >>>
The same argument could be made for the Seahawks. Former Giant Julian Love will play alongside incumbent free safety Quandre Diggs. Jamal Adams should play primarily in the second level. Per beat writer Greg Bell, “The plan… is for him not to be the second of two high safeties like he was in 2021, which was a complete disaster.” The Cigar Thoughts podcast host Jackson Bevins replied, “Good,” at the 58:06 mark.
The Panthers' and Seahawks' situations differ in two important ways. The Seahawks brought back Ryan Neal, their third safety last year, to be their fourth this year. The team is also investigating safeties to draft later this spring.
The team has apparently concluded that any production they get from Adams in 2023 will be a bonus. He has missed half of the Seahawks’ last 50 games, including almost all of 2022. Shoulder injuries, which often afflict linebackers, hampered him in 2020 and cost him time in 2021. Unsurprisingly, playing linebacker in sub-packages has taken a toll on the safety’s body.
Adams has neither stayed healthy nor played at an elite level since 2019 with the Jets. The team-leading 9.5 sacks he collected in 2020 barely overshadowed the coverage liability he became in the Seahawks’ defense.
While both Seattle and Carolina can be expected to play a robust number of snaps in three-safety sets, at least one safety on each team will play a part-time role. Utilizing Jamal Adams as a situational defensive weapon, rather than relying on him as a full-time safety with deep responsibilities, would maximize his utility to the Seahawks’ defense and increase the odds his health lasts the season.
Adams could lead all safeties in fantasy points per snap without playing enough snaps to be a reliable weekly option for fantasy gamers. Since he’ll blitz, Adams is a good draft target only in best-ball leagues.
On the Move: SAF Vonn Bell (Signed by the Panthers)
Faller: LB Frankie Luvu, Panthers
Safety Vonn Bell joins a starting defense that includes Jeremy Chinn, Xavier Woods, Shaq Thompson, and Frankie Luvu. As the new arrival with the big contract, Bell is most likely to play full-time in 2023. At least two of the other four won’t.
Linebacker Frankie Luvu was a rotational pass rusher for the first four years of his career, playing 1,018 snaps. He broke out for the Panthers, playing primarily off the ball for 940 snaps in 2022 alone. He collected 111 tackles (a respectable 11.7% rate) and 7.0 sacks in just 146 pass rushes. Defensive coordinator Phil Snow, who spotted this potential in Luvu, has been replaced by Ejiro Evero.
The team has made moves this month to address interior defensive line, linebacker, and safety but not edge. They dealt several picks to the Bears for the top overall choice, thus limiting their opportunities to add defensive talent via the draft.
Luvu could shift back to his original position to supplement the group consisting of Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos, Marquis Haynes, and Amare Barno. Perhaps Evero will concoct a role for Luvu in which he flexes between the box and the edge. To do so would complement Chinn’s duties at STAR and moneybacker.
Evero has specified Shaq Thompson as a player he likes as a three-down linebacker. At this early date, that could prove to be hot air. Luvu is nevertheless in competition with too many mouths to feed to repeat as a top-tier fantasy linebacker.
Fitterer mentions Frankie Luvu will likely move around inside and outside at LB. They made the moves to fill in the front of the 3-4, still sorting out some of the stuff behind there.
— Darin Gantt (@daringantt) March 20, 2023
On the Move: LB Kyzir White (Signed by the Cardinals)
Faller: LB/NB Isaiah Simmons, Cardinals
Like the Panthers, the Cardinals have too many mouths to feed in the middle of their defense. There aren’t 5,000 snaps to go around between their three primary linebackers and two starting safeties due to sub-packages. Isaiah Simmons is the player for whom a new coaching staff needs to find a role.
The regime that drafted Simmons eighth overall and developed him into a starbacker is gone. Former Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon will lead the Cardinals in 2023. Gannon brings his 2022 weakside linebacker Kyzir White with him.
White himself didn’t play full-time in 2022, but he and incumbent MIKE Zaven Collins will be the primary linebackers in vanilla nickel sub-packages. Philadelphia traded for nickelback Chauncey Gardner-Johnson on the cusp of the 2022 season and moved him to safety. Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson are fixtures at safety in Arizona. The Eagles’ nickelback, Avonte Maddox, is a career cornerback.
A role in Gannon’s defense that Isaiah Simmons “can really thrive in” appears unlikely to be full-time as it was in 2022 without significant changes in the role or playing time of Collins, Baker, or Thompson.
Will the Arizona Cardinals pick up the fifth-year option on Isaiah Simmons? pic.twitter.com/xuBjMQHJfp
— PHNX Cardinals (@PHNX_Cardinals) March 20, 2023
On the Move: SAF Jimmie Ward (Signed by the Texans)
Faller: SAF Jonathan Owens, Texans
Two Texans safeties emerged as top-twelve fantasy defensive backs in 2022. Both piled up tackles on a bad team whose defense could not get off the field in 2022. Former undrafted free agent and first-year starter Jonathan Owens was part of the problem.
Former 49ers defensive coordinator replaces Lovie Smith as the team’s head coach for 2023. Safety Jimmie Ward follows him as an unrestricted free agent to start alongside Jalen Pitre. Owens, currently unsigned, turns back into a pumpkin.
On the Move: LB Drue Tranquill (Signed by the Chiefs)
Faller: LB Willie Gay Jr, Chiefs
The Chiefs selected linebacker Willie Gay Jr in the second round of the 2020 NFL draft. The Mississippi product profiled as a high-upside player who could develop into a full-time player for a team that had pieced together a rotation at linebacker for years.
Gay struggled to stay on the field through physical and mental health issues in his second season. The team continued to limit Gay’s time on the field in the 2021 playoffs. Gay started strong in 2022 but was suspended for reportedly engaging in criminal domestic violence and property damage the prior offseason.
Kansas City’s signing of unrestricted free agent Drue Tranquill to a one-year, $3 million contract with $2 million in incentives this month is at least insurance for the availability of Willie Gay Jr in 2023. If he’s right, and only if, Gay is the superior player.
Check out Willie Gay Jr to the left (no. 50). Fools Hurts as his RPO read. Steps forward to get Hurts to throw and then he drops to Smith.
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) February 14, 2023
But Hurts extends and Smith eventually find space. pic.twitter.com/Jq2LqeE9eh
On the Move: LB Bobby Wagner (Signed by the Seahawks)
Faller: LB Jordyn Brooks, Seahawks
The primary reason for this repeat fantasy LB1 to decline is a Week-17 ACL tear. Due to swelling, Jordyn Brooks didn’t have surgery until January 19, 2023. A typical nine-month recovery and rehab process jeopardizes his availability to open the 2023 NFL season.
The Seahawks certainly had to add to their linebacker room for 2023 and did so first with Devin Bush, a former first-round pick of the Steelers. Bush is, however, no competition for Brooks when both are available.
Bobby Wagner, on the other hand, wore the green dot and played full-time ahead of Brooks in 2021 for these same Seahawks. That’s probably not what Wagner will do this season, but his comfort level doing so coupled with Brooks’s health increases the risk to the younger player’s already suppressed fantasy value.
On the Move: DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Signed by the Lions)
Faller: SAF Tracy Walker III, Lions
Like Jordyn Brooks, Lions safety Tracy Walker III appears on this list due to injury. Recovery and rehabilitation from an Achilles’ tendon tear and surgery typically take twelve months. Also like Brooks, Walker’s availability to begin the season is in question since the injury occurred in Week 3 of 2022.
While Brooks might not relinquish his role to Wagner, Walker will certainly vacate a safety spot for incoming unrestricted free agent C.J. Gardner-Johnson. The former Saint’s position coach, Aaron Glenn, is now the Lions’ defensive coordinator. Gardner-Johnson seemed to communicate to The Athletic that he will start at safety alongside sophomore Kerby Joseph while fellow unrestricted free agent Cameron Sutton mans the slot.
Two Lions suffered Achilles’ tendon tears in 2021. While cornerback Jeff Okudah successfully returned to play a year later, defensive end Romeo Okwara missed 14 months and struggled to contribute. Walker will have to get healthy in time to compete to start with Joseph in August or reacclimate via a rotational role.
The Lions are not $%^&ing around with their secondary. The additions of Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley were doubles and tripes, and getting C.J. Gardner-Johnson to pair with Kerby Joseph is a damn home run. Still think they need to take the best CB available at 6. pic.twitter.com/uKhBwcgl0w
— Doug Farrar ✠(@NFL_DougFarrar) March 20, 2023
In Conclusion
Results from early drafts suggest that impressions of these five players vary widely. IDP gamers participating in best-ball leagues on Sleeper run by the crew at The IDP Show are fading Jonathan Owens. His average draft position among defensive backs is 92nd. That said, there’s no reason to draft Owens at all.
As the 54th defensive back off the board, Tracy Walker’s price will surely plummet with the arrival of Gardner-Johnson. Given the volume of starting defensive backs, any pick might be better spent elsewhere.
Jamal Adams is coming off the board twelfth among defensive backs in The IDP Show’s best-ball leagues. The price would be extravagant outside of this format. The big-play scoring adds some intrigue to the selection of Adams if his price dips with the arrival of Julian Love.
Frankie Luvu and Isaiah Simmons reside in the top 15 off-ball linebackers as of this writing. Both represent extraordinary risks at points where solid full-time linebackers are easily found.
Gay’s price is more reasonable, but his downside is catastrophic. His ADP should decline from #37 among off-ball linebackers, but he need not fall outside the Top 50.
Jordyn Brooks’s ADP of 23 at his position suggests early drafters are baking in injury risk. Other linebackers are likely to leapfrog him as their roles come into focus for 2023.
The IDP Draft Kit - planned to go live in May - will include average draft position data. Those who wish to participate should contact the crew @TheIDPShow on Twitter.
Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.