NFL Media and offense-only fantasy writers alike are bemoaning an uneventful start to the 2023 league year. While they await the fates of Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson, fans of defense are reveling in the news of huge contracts for Pro-Bowl tackles, high-risk bets on pass-rushers, movement of blue-chip fantasy linebackers, and trades of big-name cornerbacks.
These players not only dominate the headlines but also pose opportunities for teammates left behind. Incoming free agents can question some veterans’ roles while complementing others’. IDP fantasy gamers can increase the value of their rosters by recognizing these changes and acquiring players before coverage intensifies in August. IDP gamers need not await observations of preseason games before placing bets on players in new situations.
This article is one of two pieces covering veteran players whose situation and opportunity will be impacted arrivals and departures of teammates. Each profiled veteran is preceded in the header by the impactful player on the move.
On the Move: SAF Vonn Bell (Signed from the Bengals)
Riser: SAF Jeremy Chinn, Panthers
Alarm bells rang throughout the IDP community last August when Jeremy Chinn played most of his snaps deep in preseason games. Then-defensive coordinator Phil Snow reported that Chinn would focus on being a Pro-Bowl safety. Snow and head coach Matt Rhule were fired midway through the 2022 season.
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Interim head coach Steve Wilks, a defensive assistant, changed Chinn’s role. He rarely played deep, instead splitting most of his snaps between the slot and the box. The deployment was not unlike Shaq Thompson’s in 2015 and 2016 when Wilks and Thompson worked with linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis.
Vonn Bell and Xavier Woods are the primary safeties in the Panthers’ 2023 defense under new coordinator Ejiro Evero. Carolina allowed its primary 2022 nickelback Myles Hartsfield to walk in free agency. Chinn will be free to operate in Evero’s STAR position and flex into the box in the former Denver coach’s frequent penny personnel packages.
Under Evero, the Broncos ranked among the top ten in blitzes in 2022. Evero not only likes to blitz from the box but also simulates pressure by dropping an edge defender into coverage, making the box defender a fourth rusher.
According to Pro Football Reference, Chinn blitzed 111 times in his first two seasons (2020-2021). He maintained his strong tackle rate in 2022, collecting a tackle on 11 percent of his snaps. Provided Chinn – rather than Woods – occupies a full-time role in 2023, Chinn’s deployment could be the league’s most advantageous for fantasy production from a defensive back.
On the Move: SAF Julian Love (Signed by the Seahawks)
Riser: SAF Xavier McKinney, Giants
The Giants’ hiring of former Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale had fantasy gamers oozing with excitement for safety Xavier McKinney. Martindale’s aggressive defense with man coverage looks, including one high safety, would breed opportunities for the other safety to make plays.
Unfortunately, the strong safety was often Julian Love. Love, the player fantasy gamer saw coming, was a college cornerback and part-time player through three years going into the 2022 season. He collected 124 tackles, including 6 for loss, and finished as a DB1.
The Giants signed former Commanders free safety Bobby McCain to take Love’s roster spot. McCain is 5-foot-9 tall and has great range. He’ll play primarily deep and in the slot, leaving the plum duties closer to the line of scrimmage to McKinney.
On the Move: SAF Devin McCourty (Retired)
Riser: SAF Kyle Dugger, Patriots
Thirteen-year pro Devin McCourty retired from the Patriots this month, and few outside New England seemed to notice. The team reportedly cut, then re-signed cornerback Jalen Mills and will move him to free safety, where he played for the Eagles in 2020. The news cleans up what had been a crowded, then uncertain depth chart.
Former second-round pick Kyle Dugger, a 6-foot-2, 220-pound specimen from Division II Lenoir-Rhyne, has collected 234 tackles, including 11 for loss in 2003 snaps. The only problem with these numbers is that he played part-time for three years.
McCourty himself is advocating for “Dug” Dugger, Jabrill “Pep” Peppers, and Adrian “AP” Phillips to man the safety rotation. The 29-year-old Mills, with just that one year of safety play to his credit, fits best as a part-timer. Dugger will push to finish 2023 as a DB1 with a larger role.
Everyone in NE wants a big name signed for safety but Dug Pep and AP have played GREAT BALL. LET THEM COOK!!!!!
— Devin McCourty (@devinmccourty) March 18, 2023
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On the Move: SAF Chuck Clark (Traded to the Jets)
Riser: SAF Kyle Hamilton, Ravens
Returning starting safety Chuck Clark is expected to play a reduced role in 2022, so he asked to be traded. He nevertheless held off the Ravens' first-round pick Kyle Hamilton. The former Notre Dame star took time to acclimate to the NFL. As the season progressed, Hamilton got comfortable as a slot defender.
The Ravens finally did trade Clark this month, but they are bringing back safety Geno Stone. The restricted free agent started games in place of free safety Marcus Williams, who missed time in the middle of the season.
Like the Panthers, the Ravens have a regular safety duo in Stone and Williams who enable the defensive coordinator to move Hamilton around the second level. The box and slot alignments will drive Hamilton’s statistical production, pushing him up the fantasy leaderboard in 2023.
#Ravens defense
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) October 24, 2022
Five sacks vs. CLE today. Four man pressure. And schemed/overload blitzes.
See that here…
Geno Stone off the edge. And rookie Kyle Hamilton winning a 1-on-1 vs. the guard in the B gap. pic.twitter.com/N9MM98EGkK
On the Move: LB T.J. Edwards (Signed by the Bears)
Riser: LB Nakobe Dean, Eagles
More than one Footballguy ranked Nakobe Dean as their top rookie linebacker in 2022, even after his draft-day slide. Dean has had to wait a year as former undrafted free agent T.J. Edwards starred at middle linebacker in Philadelphia.
Dean will play alongside Nicholas Morrow, a like-for-like replacement for Philadelphia’s 2022 weakside linebacker Kyzir White. Nearly 28, Morrow has played full-time through just one season for the lackluster 2022 Bears. Nakobe Dean should emerge as the Eagles linebacker to target. He has good potential for tackles playing in front of new defensive coordinator Sean Desai’s split safety looks.
On the Move: LB Eric Kendricks (Cut)
Riser: LB Brian Asamoah II, Vikings
The Vikings drafted Brian Asamoah II with the second pick of the third round, ahead of Nakobe Dean. Like Dean, Asamoah waited behind seasoned veterans on a playoff-bound team.
Veteran linebacker Eric Kendricks was a cap casualty in cash-strapped Minnesota. While he returns to Los Angeles, his college home, to play for the Chargers, the Vikings brought back his running mate Jordan Hicks on a restructured deal.
Hicks began ceding snaps to rookie Brian Asamoah II down the stretch in 2022. Hicks seems likely to cede a full-time role to Asamoah in 2023. Asamoah fits new defensive coordinator Brian Flores’s weak-side linebacker role, similar to that held by Jerome Baker for Flores in Miami. Hicks, meanwhile, is better suited as a two-down thumper in the middle, a la Elandon Roberts.
Brian Asamoah providing a glimpse into the future with an incredibly athletic play pic.twitter.com/KqAnpPgeT6
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) December 24, 2022
On the Move: LB Bobby Wagner (Cut)
Riser: LB Ernest Jones, Rams
Aaron Donald and Ernest Jones are the only two starting defenders remaining from the unit that opened the season in 2022. Jones was ready to captain the defense last season had Bobby Wagner not fallen into the Rams’ laps in free agency. Jones has top-12 fantasy linebacker written all over him for 2023.
On the Move: LB Cole Holcomb (Signed by the Steelers)
Riser: LB Jamin Davis, Commanders
The 19th overall pick of the 2021 NFL draft was expected to man the Commanders’ MIKE role immediately. He struggled mightily, however, as a rookie and even had a rocky second summer in 2022.
Davis was able to settle into the weakside linebacker role of Jack Del Rio’s defense. When middle linebacker Cole Holcomb was lost for the season in Week 7, Davis emerged as the full-time player at the second level and earned recognition as the team’s most improved player.
The Commanders' 2023 offseason moves signal confidence in Davis thus far. The team has signed former Seahawk Cody Barton to a one-year $3.5 million deal to man the middle. Barton showed he’s no more than a proverbial two-down player last year. The value of the contract confirms it.
On the Move: DE Marcus Davenport (Signed by the Vikings)
Riser: DE Carl Granderson, Saints
The total value of contracts for defensive linemen departing and joining New Orleans this month is roughly $100 million. Returning starting defensive end Carl Granderson remains.
Few fantasy gamers other than fellow Footballguy Joseph Haggan realize that Granderson overtook Marcus Davenport last season while holding off Payton Turner. The former undrafted free agent collected more tackles and sacks than the two former first-round picks combined.
The Wyoming product didn’t fall out of the draft for lack of traits or college production; rather, he was in legal trouble that ultimately landed him in jail for 43 days during his rookie year of 2019. Granderson’s role and production have grown each year, and Pro Football Focus has named him the Saints’ most-improved player of the 2022 season.
The Saints are expected to use an early pick on an edge defender, but that player will take time to develop behind Granderson.
Carl Granderson wanted to throw the cross chop, but turned it into a chop/rip & cleared the blocker’s hands. Granderson is tackled, but still gets to the QB for the sack! #passrush #saints pic.twitter.com/a0VFiP3KQ7
— DLineVids (@dlinevids1) November 26, 2021
On the Move: DT Javon Hargrave (Signed by the 49ers)
Riser: DE Drake Jackson, 49ers
The 2023 free-agent class of edge defenders is without a marquee name. A half-dozen journeymen signed multi-year deals worth close to $20 million, including Nick Bosa’s former bookend Samson Ebukam.
The 49ers chose instead to upgrade their pass rush with interior disruptor Javon Hargrave, formerly of the Eagles. With Ebukam in Indianapolis, Drake Jackson stands atop the depth chart at left defensive end on a line that features the reigning defensive MVP, the big-ticket import, and former first-rounder Arik Armstead. Jackson is well-positioned to improve upon his 3.0-sack rookie year.
Riser: DT Milton Williams, Eagles
The cap-strapped Eagles couldn’t afford to return everyone from their 2022 NFC Championship team. The 30-year-old tackle Javon Hargrave was perhaps most certain to depart the defense.
New defensive coordinator Sean Desai needs rising third-year lineman Milton Williams to fill the void. Williams can’t match Hargrave’s ceiling as a pass-rusher, but he might be a better scheme fit in 4- and 5-technique.
Williams will rotate through the interior line with 32-year-old Fletcher Cox and rising sophomore Jordan Davis. Williams posted a solid 9-percent tackle rate in 2022 and made more tackles for loss than the former All-Pro Cox (9 to 7).
Williams’s superior athleticism hints at his upside. At a position that blue-chip players cause to be studs and duds, Williams is worth a look as a breakout defensive tackle for next to nothing in trade or draft.
Milton Williams was drafted with pick 73 of round 3 in the 2021 draft class. He scored a 9.96 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 7 out of 1371 DE from 1987 to 2021. https://t.co/eklfW85No1 #RAS #Eagles pic.twitter.com/uF1eEdWLKp
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) May 1, 2021
In Conclusion
These eleven players are already gaining value in IDP dynasty leagues but may have room to grow from their current trading prices. The crew at The IDP Show is running best-ball drafts and aggregating average-draft-position data. Carl Granderson's ADP is just below Marcus Davenport's, who collected 0.5 sacks last season. Milton Williams is right behind his teammate, nose tackle Jordan Davis. Drake Jackson is behind all of them! These three featured off-ball linebackers reside outside the top 24 in average draft position. At safety, meanwhile, the free-agency fallout helps to justify what had been reaches. Xavier McKinney is the exception; drafters are once burned, twice shy on the Giants' safety. (Those interested in participating in these best-ball leagues should reach out to @theidpshow on Twitter.)
The lack of confidence in these risers is unique to IDP. Fantasy analysts and gamers alike are rapidly reacting to offensive players' landing spots and reassessing fantasy values based on depth charts, team strengths, and scheme fit. Footballguys.com has readers covered on both sides of the ball!
Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.