Targets and goal line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries is nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
THE GOOD
Broncos
Denver is still struggling to find consistent goal-line opportunities this season, but they are first in running back targets per game. Javonte Williams has been up and down in passing game involvement. Williams' 44% route share in Week 14 is on the higher side for his season but still sagging below optimal numbers for most NFL starters. Samaje Perine siphons plenty of receiving work in the backfield. If Javonte Williams were to miss time in the closing weeks, expect Jaleel McLaughlin to take some empty-calorie carries in the rotation but Perine to have the higher fantasy ceiling.
Bengals
Chase Brown rising to the clear RB2 role is the notable news item for the Cincinnati backfield, paired with Jake Browning keeping the offense viable in Joe Burrow's absence. The Bengals' 24.5 weighted HLO score in Week 14 was more than double their weekly average and easily their best HLO week of the season. Cincinnati has been arguably the best HLO offense in the NFL over the past two weeks. Browning equals easier upside for Joe Mixon and, in case of injury, Chase Brown by the HLO trend.
Cowboys
The Cowboys are up the fifth in HLO on the season and had their best weekly finish in Week 14 since the opening month of the season. Tony Pollard has seen a positive touchdown regression of late, and Rico Dowdle is a league-winning player simmering in case of a Pollard injury on the surging Dallas offense. Their 18.5 weighted HLO score last week was 39% above their weekly average, and they have finished in the top 18 of HLO every week but one this season.
THE BAD
Eagles
Philadelphia had the rare 0.0 HLO score in Week 14. That means zero targets and zero goal-line carries for the running backs. Their lone touchdown was a defensive score in the blowout loss to Dallas. The Eagles have been a fickle and fragile offense at times this season and three of their five worst HLO weeks of the season have been in the last month. They are trending the wrong way, and D'Andre Swift had chunks of this season with minimal concern for his usage and fantasy outcome. But Week 14 was a reminder that a dud in the all-important fantasy playoffs is possible, especially with Kenneth Gainwell siphoning receiving opportunities.
Lions
For the No.4 overall HLO team, Detroit has been in a funk lately with three of their six worst HLO weeks being the past three games, finishing no higher than 12th over the span. Also, the Jahmyr Gibbs-David Montgomery has varied by the week in the 1A and 1B roles. Likely just a down patch for the Lions, but it is something to monitor in the closing weeks if they are more of an average HLO unit instead of a dominant team from earlier in the season.
THE UGLY
Ravens
Baltimore has been no higher than No.19 in any month of this season in HLO, and the final month is trending the same way. Baltimore also heavily splits their backfield with Keaton Mitchell dynamic but limited in his passing game usage. Gus Edwards is reliant on red zone looks, and Justice Hill was their primary passing down and hurry-up back in Week 14. Add to the three-headed split Baltimore's low HLO and rogue Mitchell chunk runs or Edwards with multiple touchdowns lead to fantasy-viable games down the stretch run.
Vikings
Minnesota is a developing situation with Alexander Mattison out for at least a week and possibly more coming out of Week 14. Ty Chandler is a new starter with a limited NFL profile, and Kene Nwangwu, as the new RB2, has even less of a profile even dating back to his college career. Minnesota has also flat-lined on offense in general in recent weeks, with Joshua Dobbs' magic wearing off and being near the bottom of the NFL in HLO since Week 8. Nick Mullens and possibly Jaren Hall are in line to see time under center before the season is out, and Justin Jefferson promptly got hurt when back in the lineup in Week 14. Minnesota's weighted 6.0 HLO score in Week 14 was 58% of their weekly average. The good news is Chandler's market share of the backfield is likely higher than Alexander Mattison's as the start due to the significant downgrade with Nwangwu as the new RB2.
COLLECT
- Rico Dowdle
- Chase Brown
- Jamaal Williams
- Jeff Wilson Jr.
- D'Ernest Johnson
- Samaje Perine
- Craig Reynolds