Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Week 11

The sprint to the finish is on. For the many of us hovering around .500, these next three weeks will make or break our season. This is the time of year when league champions often pick up that late bloomer or injury replacement that will push them over the top. The problem is, those guys don't come with big neon signs telling us who they are, and they are usually the players we would least expect. That said, a few targets this week could evolve into one of those guys. May karma shine on you when it comes to making the right decisions.

Arizona Cardinals

Jalen Thompson turned in a disappointing 2-1 performance in week ten. That, despite facing a Falcons offense, which is a top-five matchup for safeties. It is hard to imagine his numbers not being better against anyone going forward, but there are no grand expectations for this week, either. The Texans are giving up the fourth-fewest points per game to safeties. That doesn't bode well for Budda Baker, but he is virtually matchup-proof.

The Cardinals use too many players in their edge rotation for anyone to emerge as a consistently productive option for us. That said, B.J. Ojulari has seen his playing time increase from scraps early in the season to a team-high 52% in week ten. The rookie second-round pick has responded with ten tackles, four assists, and three sacks over the last three games, including a 4-4-2 versus Atlanta. The surge in production is enough to land Ojulari a roster spot in many situations, but don't get excited about him this week. Since week four, the Texans have allowed 1.3 sacks per game, with just over half a sack per game to the edge position.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are off this week, but for those looking ahead, see if Richie Grant is available. His solid 7-2 against Arizona makes it four consecutive weeks with at least 12 fantasy points for Grant. Between weeks 12 and 17, he has matchups against the Saints, Panthers, Colts, and Bears, who are all in the top half of the league in terms of matchups for safeties.

Baltimore Ravens

Roquan Smith had a huge game against the Browns last week, racking up 21 total stops with 14 solo. He is matchup-proof in terms of being in our starting lineups, but lower your expectations considerably when the Ravens face Cincinnati this week. Only the Chargers are a worse matchup for linebackers.

Jadeveon Clowney went 2-4-2 and has a pair of two-sack games over the last five weeks. Jason Oweh was 4-0-1 with a forced fumble against Cleveland, giving him a sack in three of four games since returning from injury. That is enough for both players to garner some consideration as a starter on most weeks. This year's Bengals, however, are not the same team that has struggled to protect the quarterback in recent years. Clowney had a sack against them in the first meeting, but that was when Joe Burrow was a stationary target due to the calf injury. Since week four, the Bengals have allowed one sack per game to the edge positions and have given up the sixth-fewest points to the position.

Kyle Hamilton was wildly inconsistent early in the season. He continues to have ups and downs, but the downs are less frequent these days. Hamilton has reached double-digit points in three of the last four games, with a season-high of nearly 29 against Cleveland. He didn't do much in the first meeting with the Bengals, but Cincinnati has become a much stronger matchup for safeties since Burrow has been healthy.

Marlon Humphrey is dealing with an ankle injury that will keep him out in the short week. With a bye in week 13, he might not play against the Chargers next week, either.

Carolina Panthers

Derrick Brown put up 21 fantasy points in week one and 19 in week ten. In between, he reached double-digit points just once. We don't want to get in the habit of chasing points, but this time, the matchup suggests we do. Dallas has given up the sixth most points to interior linemen.

Vonn Bell was rather quiet (2-2) in his return from injury last week. The good news is that he played every snap versus the Bears, who are simply a poor matchup for safeties without Justin Fields under center. Look for much better production this week against a Dallas offense that has allowed the tenth most points to the position.

With Brian Burns inactive last week due to a concussion, the Panthers became the first team to record no sacks against the Bears this year. Dallas allowed at least three in five straight games leading up to last week, so the matchup is good if Burns clears protocol in time to play. He practiced in full on Wednesday, so his chances of suiting up are good.

Deion Jones is quietly seeing both his playing time and production increase. He went 4-1 with a pass breakup on 33 snaps against the Bears. The other player we need to watch for this week is Blake Martinez, who came out of retirement to sign with the team on November 6th. It's been a while since he played, but if Martinez can be the player he was before the injury in 2021, this kind of late-season addition can put a fantasy team over the top. The 29-year-old Martinez is currently on the Panthers practice squad, so we might not see him this week.

Chicago Bears

The Bears fielded at least five defensive backs on every play in week ten. Jaquan Brisker turned in a strong game after missing two weeks with an injury. He played every snap, going 5-4 with a pass breakup. The player that caught my eye, though, was Kyler Gordon. He was one of three corners who never came off the field, but more importantly, he worked in a role very similar to those that have made fantasy studs out of several players in recent years. Gordon worked in the slot much of the time but was moved around the formation, including a good number of plays right in the thick of the action along the line. He was around the ball all game, with the final result being a strong 7-1 with a pass breakup and a pair of tackles for loss. I like him this week against a Lions offense that has given up the seventh most points to corners.

Montez Sweat did not show up on the stat sheet last week, but his presence was felt on the field. The team had a season-high three sacks in the game, while Sweat was credited with seven QB pressures. When this trade first went down, I commented that Chicago was more than one player away. While I still stand by that statement, the addition of Sweat seems to have drawn them a lot closer than I initially expected. Granted, the matchup had a lot to do with it, but consistent pressures will eventually turn into sacks.

It was a slow day at the office for Jack Sanborn, who finished 3-4 with a pass breakup. His low production is easy to understand, though. Carolina running backs carried the ball just 13 times for 25 yards in the game. That is not going to happen to the Lions this week.

Cincinnati Bengals

It looks as if the Bengals might have to rely on their young edge defenders this week. Sam Hubbard was inactive for week ten with a sore ankle and has been ruled out. Trey Hendrickson had to be helped off the field late in Sunday's game with a hyperextended knee. He is considered day-to-day but is trending toward playing. The good news here is that neither injury is considered serious. The bad news is the Bengals have a huge game on Thursday against the division-leading Ravens. We should see Cameron Sample make his second straight start with Joseph Ossai and rookie first-round pick Myles Murphy also seeing more action.

Cam Taylor-Britt has a strangely low snap count in week nine. I have still not figured out what that was all about, but he returned to his normal full-time role, playing 95% of the snaps against Houston. Taylor-Britt missed a handful of snaps with a finger injury but returned to finish the game at 7-2 with an interception and a pair of passes defended. It's hard to take a guy out of your lineup after a game like that, but be aware that the Ravens are a poor matchup for corners.

Cleveland Browns

Cleveland managed a win on Sunday, but their secondary took a beating in the process. Safety Juan Thornhill left early with a calf strain, and corner Denzel Ward could not finish with a sore neck. Martin Emerson should start opposite Greg Newsome at corner, with Mike Ford likely to handle the nickel duties. Rodney McLeod would make the start at free safety if Thornhill can't go.

It's puzzling how the Browns can take a great matchup like the Ravens and somehow keep their linebackers from having fantasy value. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah led Cleveland's second-level defenders with just under ten fantasy points (4-3-.5 PD), while Anthony Walker managed to avoid making more than two tackles on 40 snaps. Sadly, it is not going to get much better.

Dallas Cowboys

After using safety Marquese Bell as their second linebacker for a couple of games, the Dallas coaching staff decided to try something different against the Giants. Bell's playing time was reduced to 22 snaps, mostly in passing situations, while Rashaan Evans saw his first significant playing time since joining the team three weeks ago. The shuffle also included a role reduction for Damone Clark to a level that, if it continues, would leave him completely without fantasy relevance. The snap breakdown was 22 for Bell, 30 (53%) for Clark, and 28 for Evans. Some of this can be blamed on the lopsided score, but even with that consideration, the news is not good for managers needing a consistent starter.

Dallas had five sacks versus New York, but there was nothing on the stat sheet for Micah Parsons. His snap count was down a little since the starter sat out most of the fourth quarter, but there is no reason to believe this is more than a fluke. He played 68% of the snaps.

Denver Broncos

A lot of managers picked up Baron Browning after his two-sack performance in week nine. If you were one of them, don't panic and throw him back after his 2-1 against Buffalo. The Bills shot themselves in the foot time after time on Monday night, but they didn't let Josh Allen take a beating in the process. As I mentioned in last week's column, they don't give up many sacks. What you need to know is that Browning has moved into the starting spot opposite Jonathan Cooper, with both starters seeing 65% of the action. Denver doesn't have any really juicy matchups for defensive ends on their remaining schedule, but we have seen them put up good pass-rush stats against some good teams this year. Give Browning a game or two before giving up on him.

Detroit Lions

Aiden Hutchinson has been in the witness protection program since week six. Over the last four games, he is a combined 6-5 with a fumble recovery and an average of less than six points per game. This week's matchup with the Bears could be just what Hutchinson needs to get out of the rut. On the other hand, this has not been the same Chicago team over the last few weeks. After giving up at least three sacks in every game through week six, the Bears have righted the ship, allowing five total over the last four games, including none to a toothless Carolina pass rush last week. All things considered, I'm riding with Hutchinson this week. He's simply too good a player to keep down for long and is overdue for a big game.

Green Bay Packers

When Quay Walker came up lame with a groin injury during practice leading up to week nine, Coach LaFleur indicated he had no long-term concerns. Did he mean long-term as in week-to-week or year-to-year? That was two weeks ago, and Walker has not sniffed the practice field since.

The Packers got De'Vondre Campbell back in week eight, and he's played virtually every snap over the last three games. The normally productive Campbell nearly whiffed in week ten, going 1-2 with a pass breakup despite 100% participation on defense. There is no discernable reason for the low numbers, so we'll just have to write this one off as an oddity.

Isaiah McDuffie has now started five games on the season. Counting the 7-3 he recorded against the Steelers last week, he has double-digit points in all of them. That's the positive for McDuffie this week. The negative for both he and Campbell is that the Chargers remain the fantasy game's worst matchup for linebackers.

Houston Texans

We can put Jalen Pitre's name on the fluke list as well after his vanishing act against the Bengals. Cincinnati is among the top-ten matchups for safeties, yet Pitre was completely shut out, despite playing all 64 defensive snaps. We know this is a different scheme than the one that made him the IDP game's top defensive back last year, but Pitre looked like he would be fine after combining for 13-4 with a turnover in weeks five and six. In the three games since, he has been a complete non-factor. There is no reason to expect a bounceback this week against an Arizona team that has been a bottom-ten matchup for the position.

The Bengals are a poor matchup for linebackers, so when the numbers were low for Houston's starters, it was easy to write it off as a matchup thing. Then the snap counts came out, and we were left with yet another bucket full of "What the heck?" It seems the Houston coaching staff is not finished playing with their personnel packages at linebacker. This time around, it was Denzel Perryman going 4-1 while leading the way in playing time at 86%. Christian Harris followed him at 2-3 on 64%, and then came Blake Cashman at 3-3 on 55%. Come on, Coach Ryans. It's hard enough to get these things right even when the target is not moving.

This week's twist comes compliments of the league office. Perryman was saddled with a three-game suspension for repeated violations of safety rules. In other words, he's playing football and hitting people too hard. Whatever we think of the rules, this turn of events should put Cashman back in the spotlight for the next three games.

The Bengals had no answer for Sheldon Rankins, who racked up the best single-game numbers of his career at 5-0-3 and a forced fumble. This has the feel of a perfect storm scenario and a one-game outlier, but a closer look suggests there might be more to it. Rankins missed the two previous games with an injury, but looking back to the last time he played shows another strong outing. He was 5-1-1 versus the Saints in week six. The excellent back-to-back games could be a mirage, but the shortage of productive players at the interior line positions makes Rankins worth adding if you have a need.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tyson Campbell missed a couple of games after injuring his hamstring in week six. He was back on the field after the week nine bye, but his return was short-lived. Campbell aggravated the injury against San Francisco and will be limited this week at best.

The Jaguars ran a big nickel on half of the defensive snaps against the 49ers. Andrew Wingard served as the third safety in those situations.

Las Vegas Raiders

Last week, I talked about the Raiders adding Jaylon Smith and how he could flourish if the opportunity came. Little did I know at the time that Divine Diablo would return so quickly. Diablo was a little short of his normal playing time but managed a respectable 4-3 with a pass breakup on a 67% play share. He should be back to his normal 80% or so this week.

The Jets did a great job of shutting down Maxx Crosby, who was limited to a meager 0-3 on the day. That wasn't the only unexpected turn, though. After playing 51% of the snaps and recording the first full sack of his career, it seemed as if Tyree Wilson was on track for a bigger role over the second half of the season. Instead, his snap total dropped to 33%, and he did nothing that showed up in the box score. Instead of ascending, Wilson lost snaps to journeyman Malik Reed. I thought they fired Josh McDaniel.

Los Angeles Chargers

If Kenneth Murray Jr. is your guy, watch the practice reports this week. On Sunday, he visited the blue tent and missed some snaps with a shoulder injury. Murray was able to get back in the game, but these injuries can linger and are often worse a day or two later. The fact he was able to return tells us it is not serious or structural, but a sore shoulder can make a player, especially a linebacker, a little gun-shy.

One short week after blowing up the box score for over 28 points and helping Gary Davenport squeeze out a win against me in the Kings Classic Experts league, Joey Bose joined the other IDP stars who vanished in week ten. There is no injury involved here. In fact, Bosa's snap count was up as both he and Khalil Mack had more than an 80% play share. This is bad news for those of us with Tuli Tiuipulotu. After being part of a relatively equal three-man rotation on the edge for several games, the rookie was banished to a 38% share.

Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Hicks left Sunday's game with a lower leg contusion that was initially not believed to be serious. That changed quickly when he developed something called compartment syndrome, which, from what I'm reading, is swelling that cuts off blood flow to other areas. Hicks was hospitalized on Monday and placed on IR Tuesday afternoon.

How the Vikings proceed is a question mark at this stage. Ivan Pace Jr saw a vastly increased role on Sunday and is the favorite to inherit the starting job. That said, he had some problems in coverage early in the season, so it remains to be seen if he will play full-time. Troy Dye came off the bench to cover the part-time role Pace had been working. With a week to prepare, however, we could see something totally different when the Vikings take the field. Brian Asamoah could be a factor, but he is nursing a sore ankle. Minnesota has veteran Nick Vigil and just signed longtime starter Anthony Barr. The bottom line is that someone should step up here and give us good value. It's hard to say for sure who that will be at this point.

The Vikings safety trio could get a little bump from the loss of Hicks. They are all coming off a poor statistical outing in week ten, but there was no change in scheme or playing time. All three players, Camryn Bynum, Harrison Smith, and Josh Metellus, played every snap as usual.

D.J. Wonnum went 3-1-1 against the Saints, giving him five sacks in the last seven games, with plus matchups against the Broncos and Bears on the schedule in the next two weeks.

New Orleans Saints

Paulson Adebo turned in another strong outing in week ten, going 5-4 with a pair of pass breakups. That makes his fourth consecutive game with at least 13.5 fantasy points. His stock is already high but could go even higher with the injury to Marshon Lattimore, who is week-to-week with a sore ankle. If the bye week is not enough for Lattimore to heal, Adebo will take over as the Saints CB1, with Alontae Taylor moving into the full-time role opposite him when the team returns to action.

The Saints are expected to add Jason Pierre-Paul. He should be ready to contribute after the bye but is not likely to have more than a backup role.

New York Giants

It's getting ugly in New York, where the Giants are not just circling the drain, they are heading full speed down it. The offense can't stay on the field, so the defense is seeing a ton of snaps. The Giants are always playing from behind, so there is not much opportunity to pass rush. All that adds up to a ton of tackles, which is exactly what we got from them in week ten when Darnay Holmes was 6-0 with a pick, Xavier McKinney was 8-2, Jason Pinnock 7-2, and Bobby Okereke 7-5. There could be a lot of games like this going forward, starting this week against the Commanders.

This team has been hit by injuries on the defensive side as well. Kayvon Thibodeaux left last week's game with a concussion, while the secondary lost Deonte Banks to an ankle injury and Cor'Dale Flott to a shoulder. If neither of those guys can play, the corners will be Tre Hawkins, Darnay Holmes, and Nick McCloud in week eleven.

New York Jets

After totaling at least 12 points in each of the first seven games, Quincy Williams has hit a bump in the road. A horrible matchup with the Chargers can explain his poor week nine production, but Josh Jacobs carried the ball 27 times in week ten. The good news is that nothing has changed here. Williams is still playing virtually every snap, and the scheme has not been changed. One thing that might be a contributing factor is the sore knee Williams is playing through. The Bills are a middle-of-the-pack matchup for linebackers, but that should be good enough for a rebound by Williams, providing he is healthy.

Either it is time to move on from D.J. Reed, or he will blow up this week because I mentioned it. Reed was a tackling machine over the last two seasons and started that way again this year with ten solo stops in the opener. Since that time, however, he has produced six or fewer points in four of the six games he's played. Since returning from a stint in the trainers' room three weeks ago, Reed is a combined 8-0 with a forced fumble in three games.

I'm seeing managers pick up Jamien Sherwood after his solid 5-2 with a forced fumble and a pass breakup against the Raiders. If you are considering getting on that bandwagon, be aware that he did all that damage on 15 snaps. The only way he gets significantly more playing time would be an injury to either Williams or C.J. Mosley.

On that note, Mosley made a trip to the blue tent in the fourth quarter of Sunday's game but must have checked out ok. He only missed four snaps, and there has been no word of an injury.

Philadelphia Eagles

When the Eagles take the field this week, the first thing I am looking at is their linebacker situation to see how they adapt to the loss of Nakobe Dean. When we last saw them, Zach Cunningham got the statistical boost. Remember, however, that when Dean missed four games earlier in the year, it was usually Josh Morrow in the lead role.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Kwon Alexander tore his Achilles in the first quarter of the Steelers' win over Green Bay. What was a crowded position just three weeks ago is now paper thin with the loss of Alexander and Cole Holcomb for the year. That leaves Elandon Roberts as the last man standing from the three-man rotation the team had been using. He is the heavy favorite to work in the lead role and possibly stay on the field full-time the rest of the way. Roberts turned his first opportunity into a solid 6-2 with a tackle for loss and a pass breakup on 65 of a possible 68 snaps. If he's available, pick him up.

Last year's seventh-round pick, Mark Robinson, moved into the lineup after Alexander was injured. Robinson played about 60% of the snaps and did little on the stat sheet at 2-1, but if you're in a deep league looking for someone who will get on the field, he is an option.

The ripple effect of Alexander's injury also reached Keanu Neal to a somewhat lesser extent. Elijah Riley came on for 21 snaps at safety, allowing Neal to push up into the box as a nickel linebacker. The result was a solid 4-4 with a pick for Neal against the Packers.

Once Minkah Fitzpatrick returns, there could be a complete reshuffle here. He is still recovering from the hamstring injury and has not yet returned to practice.

Seattle Seahawks

Boye Mafe went 4-1-1 with a batted pass against the Commanders, extending his streak of games with a sack to seven. Mafe has no fewer than seven points in any game this season, with at least 15.5 in each of the last three. No stellar matchups remain on the schedule for Mafe to take advantage of. On the other hand, the only bad one is against Dallas in week 13.

Unless you are sitting on Julian Love with the expectation of an injury to Jamal Adams or for dynasty purposes, there is no reason to keep him at this point. Love was 4-3 against the Commanders, which is fairly impressive considering he played just 25 snaps. The lack of playing time has to catch up eventually; when it does, Love will leave us hanging.

San Francisco 49ers

Chase Young had a marginal impact in his first game with the 49ers, at least statistically. The only play he made that counted for most of us was a half-sack. His impact on the field was much bigger and easy to see. With a bookend to keep opponents honest in their blocking scheme, Nick Bosa exploded, going 2-1-1.5 with a forced fumble, a recovery, and a batted pass. It was Bosa's turn in week ten, but both will get their share going forward.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The time has come to pull the plug on Ryan Neal. He has seen less than a 35% play share in back-to-back games. The only difference this week is who replaced him. Dee Delaney was occupied as the nickel corner in week ten, so Christian Izien logged 67% of the snap at strong safety.

YaYa Diaby is a player we need to keep an eye on. With a 2-0-1 in week ten, he has a sack in two of the last three games, and his stock is looking up.

Kalijah Kancey didn't get to the quarterback in week ten, but he did impact the game. Kancey finished with three solo stops, including two for loss. His 73% play share was the most among all Buccaneers defensive linemen.

Lavonte David finished Sunday's game with a dismal 3-2 and 2 passes defended. Devin White was not much better at 2-2-1 with a pass breakup, but at least his sack salvaged the day. It's hard to blame the linebackers here, though. Tennessee ran the ball just 16 times for 42 yards.

Tennessee Titans

Azeez Al-Shaair was credited with just six assists on 61 of 65 snaps in week ten. It was, by far, his lowest output of the season. That said, I think the people keeping stats on this game were either blind or their fantasy team was playing against him. I've only seen bits and pieces of this game as of Tuesday night, and he had at least two solo stops in that limited sample.

The more important note is that Jack Gibbens lost playing time to Monty Rice. It's hard to tell what is going on with this situation. Gibbens has been battling a sore shoulder, but I've seen no word of that being the issue. He was 2-0 on 27 snaps, while Rice went 2-2 on 19.

Harold Landry pitched a virtual goose egg in week nine. However, he had at least 15 fantasy points in each of the other three games since week six, including 18 in week ten against a Buccaneers squad that is a lousy matchup for edge defenders. The Titans' next three games are against the Jaguars, Panthers, and Colts. All three rank in the top twelve in terms of points allowed to edge defenders.

Washington Commanders

Benjamin St-Juste has emerged as one of the fantasy game's most dependable corners. He has double-digit points in five of the last seven games, with no fewer than 7.5 over that span. St-Juste is on bye in week 14, which is a bummer, but matchups with the Cowboys and Dolphins in weeks 12 and 13 could help us get to week 14 when many/most leagues start their playoffs.

Jonathan Allen went 4-0-1 against Seattle. His sack is the only one the Commanders have recorded since they traded away Montez Sweat and Chase Young. This week's game with the Giants should help someone add to that total. That someone is not likely to be James Smith-Williams, who left last week's game with a hamstring injury. Efe Obada and Casey Toohill played most of the snaps on the edge against Seattle and are in line to start this week.

That does it for this week. Keep fighting and remember, you're not eliminated unless the numbers say so. Even the longest odds hit once in a while.

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