Dynasty: Win Now Players

The Win Now concept implies that a fantasy team is within striking distance of winning a championship and is willing to trade significant capital to secure very good to elite players on the back end of their career arcs. Contradictory to common dynasty logic, age should no longer be the primary concern for the ‘win now’ manager. In this instance, production out leverages age.

Running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends experience the same decade-long career windows, give or take a few years. The primary difference between the three positions is when each will likely reach peak performances within their respective careers.

This article will quickly examine the three positional groups, identify players to target for teams in a ‘win now’ window, and discuss their general trade costs.

RUNNING BACK

Of all the offensive positions, running backs have the shortest careers. The inherent physical violence of the position stunts any longevity. Generally, a running back will experience a peak in fantasy production before or at the age of 26. Over the past three years, the average running back age, when first drafted, is 22.6 years old. That is less than a four-year window of peak productivity. That is not to say that they do not continue producing at a high level. But trends show peak performances decline past the age of 26. Knowing this, dynasty managers trade away their running at or just past the age of 26 to gain equity on any remaining perceived fantasy value. Managers in the Win Now window tend to be buyers of these elite running backs. While managers may still have to pay a reasonable amount to acquire them, the cost is significantly reduced given the advanced age.

Win-now running back candidates should still be considered very good to elite producers. The following three candidates are elite running backs ranked in the consensus top 12 who are at or have passed the age apex mentioned above. Each player should cost anywhere between an early-tomid-first-round 2023 rookie draft pick. They are the cream of the crop and well worth the price.

• Christian McCaffrey (26 years old): McCaffrey will be the most expensive of the running backs. However, if a manager has him rostered on a rebuilding team, then chances are that McCaffrey can be acquired.
• Austin Ekeler (27 years old): Ekeler ran only 17 fewer routes than McCaffrey did in 2022, yet Ekeler was targeted on three percent more of his routes. He can all too easily finish as the RB1 and can single-handedly carry a team to a championship on his route participation and target volume alone.
• Saquon Barkley (26 years old): Among running backs, Barkley was third in routes run behind only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey. He is the entirety of the New York Giants offense and is well worth the cost of any 2023 first-round rookie pick after rookie Pick 1.04.

Go Deeper: See Footballguys 2023 Running Back Projections >>>

The next group of running backs are ranked outside the top 12 yet are still considered excellent fantasy producers. Expect to trade anywhere between an early-to-late-second-round 2024 pick for them.

• Aaron Jones (28 years old): Over the past two years, Jones has finished as a top 12 running back in fantasy points per game and routes run. Additionally, he has a higher target rate per route run than Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler.
• James Conner (27 years old): Like Aaron Jones, Conner also finished top 12 in fantasy points per game over the past two years among running backs. Conner has always been a multi-dimensional back that gets the job on the ground or through the air. He's as dependable as it gets at the position.
• Antonio Gibson (24 years old): Gibson is still young for a running back, but his value took a massive hit when the Washington Commanders drafted Brian Robinson in 2022. Eric Bieniemy was hired as the Commanders' new offensive coordinator, which bodes well for Gibson's 2023 receiving value. Running backs under Bieniemy over the past three years have ranked eleventh (Clyde Edwards-Helaire), sixth (Darrel Williams), and seventh (Jerick Mckinnon) over the past three years. The argument can be made that Gibson is a better receiver than all three of those running backs, and Biniemy knows it.

WIDE RECEIVER

In general, wide receiver production has shown a historical trend of declining past the age of 27 before wholly falling off at or past 30. Hence, buy candidates will be identified as significant producers at or past 27. Among the current consensus wide receiver rankings, three wide receivers over 27 are ranked within the top 12. All three are in the final two-year window of top-five production. Like the previously mentioned group of elite running backs, each wide receiver will cost a late first or early 2024 second-round pick.

• Cooper Kupp (29 years old): Kupp was second in total points among wide receivers before an injury ended his season in Week 9. He had 18 more fantasy points than Just Jefferson. Not too shabby for a 29-year-old wide receiver. Kupp's play style resembles a running back sometimes, so injury is always a looming threat, but his ability to put a fantasy team on his back is uncanny.
• Steffon Diggs (29 years old): At 29 years old, Diggs is still just as efficient as you would expect from a wide receiver who has finished top 12 in fantasy points per game over the past three years.
• Davante Adams (30 years old): The seventeenth wide receiver in fantasy points per game in 2022, Adams now finds himself on a team led by free agent addition Jimmy Garoppolo. Carr was never the reason for Adams' success last year, as Carr finished in the lower percentile of every completion percentage metric offered. Meanwhile, Adams was in the top percentile of every opportunity and efficiency rating. Carr's departure, combined with Garoppolo's arrival, is deceiving current Adams managers into lowering his price point when, in reality, it’s the same as it ever was for Adams on the Las Vegas Raiders in 2023.

Go Deeper: See Footballguys 2023 Wide Receiver Projections >>>

While the above wide receivers still have a year or two of strong production remaining, a second tier of cheaper yet productive candidates ranked outside of the top 12. Consider them high-end WR2s that can finish as a WR1 on any given week. Expect to spend anywhere between an early to mid-2024 2nd round pick if dealing for them today.

• Tyler Lockett (30 years old): Lockett is coming off a solid 2022 season. He finished fourth in total touchdowns, thirteenth in total fantasy points and fourteenth in fantasy points per target. It should be business as usual for Lockett, as he's now locked into a second year with Geno Smith.
• Amari Cooper (28 years old): Nobody could have predicted Amari Cooper having his third-best fantasy season under the mercy of Jacoby Brissett's throwing arm. However, Cooper's fantasy production took a nosedive after Deshaun Watson took over as the starting quarterback. Watson’s performance indeed would have loosened the grip of Cooper managers. Offer an early second to pry the rest of their fingers open.
• DeAndre Hopkins (30 years old): Hopkins may as well be in the first tier of wide receivers. The only issue keeping him out of there is the uncertainty of which team he'll play for in 2023, which is precisely why he needs to be traded for today.

TIGHT END

The tight end position is a risky market to invest in for a win-now team. Although there are significant contributors, it is reserved for a thin margin at the top of the positional pile. Travis Kelce has been the king in three of the past four years, outscoring the TE2 by a median of 35 fantasy points in each of those three years. Trading for most tight ends outside the top two equates to trading for the production a top 35 to 40 wide receiver will give weekly. Those numbers don't scream difference maker and hardly have managers reaching deep into their pockets.

However, some veteran tight ends have had down years or are late-career breakout candidates due to varying circumstances. The following tight ends should cost anywhere between a 2023 to 2024 mid-second-round pick:

• Darren Waller (30 years old): Waller is only one year removed from finishing as the TE5 in fantasy points per game and will be 30 years old when the 2023 season starts. Among tight ends, he was first in average depth of target, fifth in yards per target, and second in yards per reception. Those stats reflect well upon his efficiency, which should only continue in 2023. He now finds himself as the top receiving weapon on the New York Giants, led by the 2022 NFL coach of the year, Brian Daboll. If anything, Waller's fantasy floor has been solidified in 2023. Stability at tight end is exactly a what a championship team needs
• David Njoku (26 years old): In 2022, Njoku saw a career-high 80 targets, had six top 10 games, was second in red zone targets among tight ends, and was targeted on 19.5 percent of his routes run (Top 10 target volume). He achieved all this in a season of quarterback play under journeyman backup Jacoby Brissett and a rusty Deshaun Watson. Watson should return to form, which should only raise the tide that is Njoku's fantasy production.
• Mike Gesicki (27 years old): Gesicki is likely written about in every article discussing buying players. It's for a good reason too. He is one of the few tight ends considered by many as a pure pass catcher. Gesicki is now a free agent and should be guaranteed a prominent pass-catching role for any offense lucky enough to grab him. Offer Gesicki's disgruntled owner a mid-2024 or 2025 second-round pick before he finds a new team.