The Dynasty Trading Post: Week 1 Overreactions

Photo: USA Today Sports

Welcome to the dynasty trading post, where optimizing strategy, roster construction, format, and player value oscillations are examined weekly in example and completed dynasty trades.

This week, we'll focus on quarterback profiling and rebalancing rosters from running back.

*All trades are Superflex unless stated otherwise*

QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Theme of the Week: Buy and Hedge

Geno Smith's market value has softened after a clunky Week 1 by Seattle. The Seahawks sustained offensive line injuries, Jaxon Smith-Njigba got off to a slow start, and Tyler Lockett missed some time during the game. On the positive side, Smith avoided sacks compared to his pressures, avoided bad throws, and tolerated multiple drops by his targets. Smith is sagging in the market to the mid-20s of the quarterback position with an almost assumption he fails this season and turns back into a pumpkin. Before listing trade ideas to acquire Smith, I will also mention to monitor Drew Lock in Superflex. In 28 and fewer roster spot formats, Lock might hit the waiver wire close to bye weeks and more data points accruing this season. Also, Lock is a throw-in for bigger trades. Seattle likes Lock and rewind to May 2022 and Lock was the presumed starter before Smith surged to the role, earned a new contract, etc. Lock is underrated within the backup quarterback landscape. Be open to playing both sides of the Seattle quarterback coin and outcomes this season.

Here are a few key Smith trades this week with him as a buy valuation and recommendation:

• Smith, DeAndre Hopkins for Mac Jones, Puka Nacua
• Smith for 24 3rd
• Smith for Nico Collins, 24 3rd
• Smith, Christian Watson for Brock Purdy
• Smith for Brian Robinson Jr

Even within the buy recommendation deals, the price is all over the map for Smith. While a 3rd is likely an insulting offer, it shows how fragile his market value is depending on the dynasty franchise involved. Start by offering a 2nd alone with potentially adding a player to the offer in a counter. Moving from Purdy to Smith++ is appealing. Moving from Sam Howell (and maybe a small plus) to Smith is another idea. Using Nacua as a quick flip add-on in the first deal is a savvy move to get the higher-upside quarterback and also a startable Hopkins. Well done. Food for thought and use this as idea fuel until kickoff this week and, outside of a huge bounce-back game from Smith, next week in dynasty trading as well.