Dynasty Sell Now: Travis Etienne

Photo: USA Today Sports

What if I told you there was a player who missed his entire rookie season? After getting drafted by a coach fired 13 games into his first season? He then was out-touched 91 to 72 through the first six games by a player his team would go on to trade midseason. Who then would go on to be RB33 through the season's final eight weeks? And then his team drafted another running back on Day 2 in the 2023 NFL draft? After his coach said they wanted to use a committee backfield?

Are you buying that player?

Likely not. But with some popular dynasty resources still playing Travis Etienne inside the top seven running backs, it is time to sell. But telling you to sell is the easy part. Let's show you what to sell.

Dig Deeper: See Kevin Coleman's RB Tiers for Dynasty Startups here >>>

Why Sell?

Breaking it down to the base principle, we have seen Etienne without meaningful competition. The result was RB18 in points per reception per game scoring after Robinson left the team.

But digging deeper. The primary concern is Etienne is different from the player he seems. A 210-pound shifty back paints certain connotations. Primarily a significant contributor to the passing game. But Etienne's 7.8% target share is in line with players fantasy managers would never consider major passing contributors: Nick Chubb at 7.3% or Ken Walker III at 7.2% and far behind players like Alvin Kamara at 18.2%. This offseason, the team added Calvin Ridley to dilute targets further.

Some of that is a function of the system. Between 2017 and 2020, Doug Pederson's Eagles' offense ranked in the bottom half of running back target share, bottoming out to last in 2017. The Jaguars feature one of the deepest receiver rooms following the breakout seasons turned in by Christian Kirk and Zay Jones.

But some of it is on Etienne. He returned to college, citing the need to improve in the passing game as a significant reason. In his first two seasons as Clemson's primary back, he caught 17 passes. His role grew later in college, but a Lisfranc tear that ended his rookie season before it started was a setback in that development.

For Etienne to return significant value and deliver as a top-end running back, he must show dramatic improvement in an area the team does not need.

The Trade Value Chart

One of the best dynasty features at Footballguys is Dan Hindery's Trade Value Chart. Dan places Etienne's value at 29. For context, a middle 1st rounder 2024 rookie pick is valued at 26 in Superflex. Other positions value him on par with Tyreek Hill, Kyle Pitts, and Dak Prescott.

Looking historically, Etienne is trending down. He was valued at 30 in May and April and 32 in March. Movement like this indicates a market cooling on Etienne. Typically you would want to avoid trading an asset losing value. We are hard-wired to "Buy low and sell high," but psychology comes into play. If someone is buying a declining asset, they separate themselves from the idea of overpaying for a peak. This perception makes deals smoother. Attempt to find a leaguemate with a hole at running back who can view buying an elite asset entering their third season. In Dynasty, the longevity associated with Etienne helps separate within a market hesitant to pull the trigger on acquiring running backs.

Executed Trades

Dynasty League Football has an excellent completed trades tool. The following is a list of players traded straight up for Etienne across leagues recently: