The Dynasty Investor: QB Value

Photo: USA Today Sports

The Dynasty Investor is about value as a strategy applied to fantasy football. The way I look at it, value is about paying less for something than it is fundamentally worth. Value does not necessarily mean low prices on an absolute basis; it means cheap relative to comparable players.

To recap the intro article, the way we measure value in the Dynasty Investor is by looking at a player's KeepTradeCut (KTC) vs. his fantasy point per game (PPG) in a ratio called the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. P/E = KTC / PPG / 10. Then you compare that player's P/E ratio to a like-for-like cluster of players from an age, production, and potential perspective. Players in the same cluster should be valued similarly in the market on a P/E basis. If they aren't, then an arbitrage opportunity exists to create value.

Key Points Up Front

• If you need a QB that scores points but don't want to break the bank, Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson, and to a lesser extent, Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott look cheap relative to their peers.
• If you are in rebuilding mode, go grab Trey Lance.
• Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, Kenny Pickett, and Jordan Love look expensive relative to their peers.
• Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford look like the veterans you could take a shot on at a much lower cost, but they come with risk.

Quarterback Value

This work is based on the Superflex (SF) fantasy format. Please remember that as we discuss QB values using the P/E ratio. In SF, QB is king. There is no need to rehash SF strategies and the importance of QBs in the format; know that SF leagues' supply/demand dynamics push the QBs to the highest prices in the player pools. Meaning it costs more to trade for or draft them, especially if they are differentiators.

We will now look at the fantasy QB landscape broken up into clusters of similar players by age and PPG. These are NOT rankings; they are groupings of like-for-like players sorted by KTC.

QB Cluster | Age 25-28 | 20+ PPG

Trading Notes

• Patrick Mahomes II: That's future HOFer Mahomes to you, hold.
• Josh Allen: Allen is well, Allen. He's a hold, given he scores a differentiated amount of QB fantasy points.
• Joe Burrow: I love Burrow, but he's too expensive; he has been off-the-charts efficient and doesn't have the rushing upside that others in this cluster have. More on this below. Sell.
• Justin Herbert: 2022 was a down year for Herbert, given the expectations; unfortunately, he still trades a little expensive; hold for me.
• Lamar Jackson: Buy. Getting a former league MVP at a pretty good discount. However, his price has increased since getting his long-term contract with the Ravens.
• Kyler Murray: My highest upside Buy at QB
• Deshaun Watson: Hold your nose and Buy, he may never command a premium, but I think he will get back to scoring you 20+ PPG. Note: I have him at a 10% P/E discount to the group.

Cluster Charting

This chart visualizes the cluster's KTCs since May 2020, approximately three years. The purple bands are the fantasy football regular seasons, and the white spaces are the fantasy off-season. The max value a player can get in KTC is 10,000. Mahomes has been in the high 9000s for the entire three years. Allen had a tremendous 2020 season and then spent the next two years with Mahomes in the high 9000s. Burrow has a more up-and-down three years. He starts very close to where Allen is, then moves down during the offseasons, up through the seasons, and peaks at higher highs as the fantasy season comes to a close. Lamar Jackson is the opposite of Burrow in that his peaks happen early to mid-way through the season, and then prices fall off as you get towards the end of the season and levels off.

Herbert, the youngest of the group, starts his rookie year around 4500 KTC, as there was uncertainty about what he might become. He quickly skyrockets up, including spending the end of the 2021 season and the entire offseason with Mahomes and Allen in the very high 9000s range, but falls back down after a somewhat disappointing 2022. Murray has spent some significant time at the very top of this chart, as one of the pricier QBs, but fell hard going into the offseason last year and then again during the 2022 season. The most volatile price movement probably comes from Watson, whose off-field issues have led to significant price swings.

Finally, the QB Index represents the current top-24 QBs in KTC averaged together into an index, which is used to show the price trends of the entire group over the three years. Looking at these charts, Mahomes and Allen might be different, but if you think Burrow/Herbert/Jackson/Murray/Watson can score similar PPG, then Jackson/Murray/Watson look cheaper.

QB Cluster | Age <25 | 20+ PPG

Trading Notes

• Jalen Hurts: Hurts is a top-tier young fantasy QB; that’s a hold for me.
• Trevor Lawrence: Great year for Lawrence; it's certainly possible he makes it into that Mahomes/Allen tier at some point, but right now, I see more upside in Fields with similar PPG potential.
• Justin Fields: Don't let the offseason chatter fool you, Fields is Chicago's QB, and I think he is a value at the moment, Buy the dips.

Cluster Charting

Jalen Hurts was a 2nd round pick, and there was tremendous skepticism on if he was 'good.' That was reflected in his KTC of around 2500 to start off this chart. Hurts starts playing, and his price doubles to the 5000 range and holds there for 1.5 years as there continues to be some skepticism about what Hurts is. Finally, last year Hurts took off and had an incredible 25.6 PPG season, up there with Mahomes and Allen, and now he is the 3rd highest priced QB on KTC. Hurts is a fantastic, hard-fought story, and you can't help but to root for the guy. Lawrence and Fields were given the benefit of the doubt as rookies with high starting KTC levels. Then they both had disappointing rookie seasons, and their KTC fell quite a bit. Midway through last season, they pulled it together, and their prices popped around where they started as rookies. If you think Lawrence and Fields will score similar PPG, Fields looks like a relative value.

QB Cluster | Age 29+ | 20+ PPG