We broke down our response to the Nick Chubb injury this week in a round table. This is to give you more strategies to address the loss of a running back like Nick Chubb.
What do you do when you lose Nick Chubb?
Do Not Panic
If you lose a Nick Chubb-level running back, it will hurt your team. But this will not sink your team. Overall, about 6 to 12 running backs will produce a win over replacement in a season. Last year, in Superflex formats, it was 6, and Chubb himself produced 1.1 wins over replacement in 2022.
Does the loss of Chubb’s production hurt your lineup? Yes.
Does it sink your team? No.
You can still win the championship. The injury does not force you into a rebuild.
Understand the Nature of the Position
The running back position is a week-to-week position.
You will not find a one-for-one replacement for Chubb’s production in a trade without harming your lineup.
Instead of trying to replace Chubb, recreate the player in the aggregate. The nature of the running back position allows this better than any other position.
Your goal is to replace his lineup spot one week at a time. Worry about Week 3 in Week 3. Then worry about Week 4 in Week 4. And do not worry about Week 10 until Week 10.
One of the weaknesses of the running back position is the high injury rate. Starters like Chubb can suffer injuries in a manner that hurts your lineup. However, the strength of the running back position is when there are injuries to starters, backup running backs can get clarified starting opportunities with good workloads. When a wide receiver or tight end starter is injured, there is rarely a clear opportunity for the backup to match the workload of the starter. However, when a running back starter is out, there is a clear opportunity for a starting workload on a week-to-week basis.
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Optimize Your Roster
After Chubb was injured, your goal is to replace him on a week-to-week basis. To do so, make sure you are optimizing your roster. There are a couple of quick ways to do so.
First, add your injured running back’s backup. Depending on your format, the player for your injured running back might be a free agent. For example, in some formats, Jerome Ford or Kareem Hunt will be a free agent.
In others, he will already be rostered.
If they are available, make an aggressive waiver bid.
Second, add injury-away running backs to your roster.
Look for running backs on the waiver wire who are an injury away from a starter week and add them. To create roster space, cut wide receivers and tight ends who you do not feel comfortable starting and do not hold trade value.
Cheap running backs to add include:
- Ronnie Rivers (LAR)
- Tony Jones Jr. (NO)
- Keaontay Ingram (ARI)
- Patrick Taylor (GB)
- Sean Tucker (TB)
- Trayveon Williams (CIN)
- Elijah Dotson (LAC)
- Rico Dowdle (DAL)
This list should change each week based on injuries or play quality.
Lastly, optimize your roster for the format.
If you lose a running back, you might not need to add a running back to your lineup.
If you have to start two running backs but choose to start three each week, your loss of a running back is actually a flex issue. In TE-premium formats (1.5 or more PPR to TEs), you might have good internal options. These players might be cheaper than a running back replacement in the premium format.
Takeaway
When you lose a running back, you do not need to panic or make a trade to fix the issue. Embrace the week-to-week nature of the position and optimize your roster. You can make trades to fix the position, but trading for marginal starters you could replicate by optimizing your roster.