There has been much debate this week about the nature of trading as a contender in dynasty leagues. Some will argue for trading all your future picks to win in the present, while others prefer to maintain their picks into the future.
Trading as a Contender
The truth is there should be a nuance to trading in dynasty. As a general rule, in trades when you are paying for contending assets, try to pay the price as quickly as possible.
If you are a contender and considering trading picks to improve your team, push hard for 2024 picks as the basis of the deal. If you are in a dynasty league where you can only trade 2024 picks, that is easy. If you are in a dynasty league where you can trade picks further out than 2024, be careful.
A recent trade demonstrates the risk.
In a Superflex league on the platform myfantasyleague.com, the following trade was made:
- Team A Acquires: Mike Evans, Derrick, Henry, and a 2024 2nd-round rookie pick
- Team B Acquires: 2024 1st-round rookie pick and 2025 1st-round rookie pick.
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Team A's logic is straightforward. The addition of Mike Evans and Derrick Henry will improve their lineup for a run down the stretch of the season. The 2nd round pick they are acquiring is from a team entering a rebuild and should be early in the round. Likewise, the 1st round pick they are giving up is on their team's pick, which is contending and should be late in the round. As a result, the picks will be within a half-round of each other in a historically flat range of rookie drafts. The future pick is more than a season away and an acceptable risk.
However, the trade is fraught with long-term risks. Henry is sharing time with rookie Tajae Spears, which is taking away Henry's elite ceiling from prior seasons. Likewise, Evans is performing well, presently the WR13 in points per game, but is doing so with Baker Mayfield playing well. There is a concern that he could regress in the second half of the season.
Additionally, Henry and Evans are free agents in the offseason, and their 2024 situations are unclear.
With the uncertainty in 2024, there is little protection in the 2025 1st round pick.
This is the type of trade to avoid. There is so much uncertainty in a future first-round pick that they are essentially random in their draft order. Even if you have a strong present team, injuries, unexpected transactions, or coaching changes are among the factors that can dramatically change your team's direction.
When making the trade, avoid giving the 2025 pick. For example, Team A could have taken out the 2024 2nd-round pick and 2025 1st-round picks to reduce their long-term risk. If that made the deal fall apart, they could have added more to the deal, made a smaller deal for only Henry or Evans, or shopped around for other deals.
The Burn Factor
When evaluating these deals, consider the burn factor: how likely is the player or pick to burn you by trading them?
Young wide receivers, along with quarterbacks and tight ends who have not shown themselves to be elite for more than a year, are the perfect blend of players attractive to retooling teams seeking high-upside in the trade market who have low burn rates.
Injured star players and future picks out into the future are the most likely to burn your dynasty team in a meaningful way.