Cracking DraftKings Week 3

Favorite Fantasy Game Environment

• Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 53.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Chiefs at home vs. Bears - Implied Team Total 30
• Dolphins at home vs. Broncos - Implied Team Total 27.5
• Ravens at home vs. Colts - Implied Team Total 26
• Jaguars at home vs. Texans - Implied Team Total 26.5
• Lions at home vs. Falcons - Implied Team Total 24.8
• Seahawks at home vs. Panthers - Implied Team Total 23.8
• Cowboys on the road vs. Cardinals - Implied Team Total 27.8

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith is severely underpriced at just $5,700. After a rough Week 1, Smith bounced back last week throwing for 328 yards and 2 touchdowns. And remember, he was awesome last year as he led a Seahawks offense that shockingly ranked sixth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and he ranked 12th in passing yards per game (252) and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). He plays at home in a decent matchup with Andy Dalton slated to start at quarterback on the other side.

The Chargers at Vikings game has the highest Over/Under (53.5) of the week and Kirk Cousins gets to play at home against a Chargers defense struggling to begin the year as they rank 29th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Meanwhile, Cousins ranks second in passing yards (708) and first in pass touchdowns (6).

The Cowboys are 12.5-point favorites and they have the second-highest Implied Team Total (27.8) on the week. Dak Prescott is set up well against an average at best Cardinals defense. Sure, the Cowboys might sit on a lead late in the game but Prescott could very well be why they have that lead in the first place.

Running Backs

The Seahawks are 5.5-point home favorites against a struggling Panthers team and defense that ranks 27th in Rush EPA Allowed. Ken Walker is averaging 18 opportunities per game yet is priced at just $6,200.

Nick Chubb's unfortunate injury opens up the lead running back duties in Cleveland to Jerome Ford. The Browns did sign Kareem Hunt this week but the expectation should be Hunt will slowly ramp up over the next few weeks. Ford is priced at just $4,800 after turning 20 opportunities into 131 total yards and 1 touchdown last week. He has a tough matchup against a strong Titans run defense that ranks fifth in Rush EPA Allowed but the Browns are three-point home favorites.

David Montgomery's expected absence (listed as doubtful) this week will unlock additional chances for Jahmyr Gibbs. Plus, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds are both listed as questionable. Gibbs is still sharing the workload with Craig Reynolds but he still saw 16 opportunities which consisted of 7 carries and 9 targets in Week 2. Nine targets! That's massive, especially for a receiving talent like Gibbs and in Draftkings' full PPR scoring format. And the Lions are at home in the dome this week.

The Dolphins are 6.5-point home favorites against a struggling Broncos defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed. Raheem Mostert is priced at just $6,000 and is coming off a game where he saw 19 opportunities for 127 total yards and 2 touchdowns.

Brian Robinson's 21 opportunities per game rank eighth most in the NFL through two weeks. He's priced at just $5,800 and gets to play at home against a Bills defense that ranks 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed.

James Cook's 19.5 opportunities per game rank 14th most in the league and he's averaging 5 targets per game. His matchup isn't ideal against a pretty solid Commanders' defense but he's a dual-threat in one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Wide Receivers

The Chargers at Vikings game has the highest Over/Under (53.5) of the week and Justin Jefferson gets to play at home against a Chargers defense struggling to begin the year as they rank 29th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Jefferson leads the league in receiving yards per game (154.5).

Keenan Allen benefits from playing in this same game and ranks 11th in targets per game (9.5), ninth in receptions per game (7), and ninth in receiving yards per game (93.5) through two weeks.

Tank Dell played on 79% of the offensive snaps and ran 45 routes (five more than Nico Collins) in Week 2. He turned 10 targets into 7 receptions for 72 yards and 1 touchdown. C.J. Stroud looks very competent through his first two career games and Stroud and Dell have had a connection since before they were both drafted by the Texans. And Dell's production last week was not a fluke. He posted 90-1,329-12 as a junior and 109-1398-17 as a senior in 2022. He also had punt and kick-return success in college, returning a punt for a touchdown just last season. He's mispriced by $1,000 and is a cash game lock.

Nico Collins is also a strong cash game play despite the higher price tag compared to Dell. Collins ranks sixth in targets per game (10) and fifth in receiving yards per game (113). And the Texans project to throw a lot as they're 9.5-point road underdogs.

Adam Thielen is 33 years old. His age is catching up with him but expect some productive games early on this season before he fades later in the year. That's exactly what we saw last week when Thielen caught 7 of 9 targets for 54 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 two-point conversion. The Panthers simply don't have other weapons they can rely on right now. With Bryce Young out, look for Andy Dalton to rely on Thielen in the short passing game. He's a solid play due to being mispriced by about $1,000.

Tyler Lockett is simply good at the game. He caught 8 of 10 targets for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns last week yet is priced at just $6,400 at home in a decent matchup with Andy Dalton slated to start at quarterback on the other side.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews is off the injury report this week. Meanwhile, the Ravens will be without Odell Beckham Jr in this one. Andrews saw eight targets and scored a touchdown in his 2023 debut and his workload should be expected to ramp up from here. He's a solid cash game play if paying up for a tight end.

T.J. Hockenson ranks tied for 19th in the entire NFL in targets per game (8.5) through two weeks and has an awesome matchup on tap in Week 3. The Chargers at Vikings game has the highest Over/Under (53.5) of the week and Hockenson gets to play at home against a Chargers defense struggling to begin the year as they rank 29th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Hunter Henry ranks second at the tight end position in receiving yards (108) through two weeks and has caught a touchdown in each game to begin the 2023 season. If the Patriots are able to control this game due to Bill Belichick running circles around Zach Wilson, as expected, Henry could once again have a solid game due to New England controlling time of possession.

Luke Musgrave is priced at just $3,300 while both Christian Watson and Aaron Jones are questionable for this game. Musgrave played on 88% of the offensive snaps last week.

Team Defenses

The Trevon Diggs torn ACL is a huge number but Dallas' defense is still loaded with talent. They get to attack a hapless Cardinals offense in Week 3. Arizona has the lowest Implied Team Total (15.3) of the entire week.

Anthony Richardson is out with a concussion which puts Gardner Minshew in line to start on the road against a good Ravens' defense. Baltimore's defense ranks 11th best in EPA/Play Allowed and the Colts simply don't have a lot of talent on their offense right now.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

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