Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 50.5
- Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams - Over/Under 49.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- 49ers on road vs. Cardinals - Implied Team Total 30.5
- Chiefs on road vs. Patriots - Implied Team Total 23.3
- Falcons on road vs. Panthers - Implied Team Total 18.8
- Dolphins at home vs. Jets - Implied Team Total 23
- Packers at home vs. Buccaneers - Implied Team Total 22.5
- Browns at home vs. Bears - Implied Team Total 20.5
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Desmond Ridder | at Panthers | $5,200 |
The best quarterback plays are clearly defined this week and the majority of them are discussed in the tournament section of the article. But Desmond Ridder is in play as an affordable option priced at just $5,200 in a decent matchup against a 1-12 Panthers team that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 7. And Ridder offers some rushing upside as he's scored five rushing touchdowns on the year.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | vs. Texans | $6,900 |
| 2 | Ezekiel Elliott | vs. Chiefs | $5,800 |
| 3 | Chuba Hubbard | vs. Falcons | $5,600 |
| 4 | Rachaad White | at Packers | $7,000 |
| 5 | Raheem Mostert | vs. Jets | $7,100 |
| 6 | Breece Hall | at Dolphins | $6,400 |
This didn't look like a favorable spot for Derrick Henry a few weeks ago but things have certainly changed as of late. C.J. Stroud is doubtful with a concussion, Tank Dell is out, and Nico Collins is questionable. These injuries matter significantly because Henry produces more in favorable rushing game environments. The Titans are 3.5-point home favorites and Henry ranks 11th in the NFL in opportunities per game (18.8).
Rhamondre Stevenson is out once again, freeing Ezekiel Elliott up for another monster workload. Elliott turned a massive 30 opportunities last week into 140 total yards and a touchdown and now he gets to play at home against a Chiefs defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7. I can't believe I'm saying this but Elliott is a cash game lock in Week 15.
In two games under interim head coach Chris Tabor, the Panthers offense has become extremely run-heavy as their PROE has plummeted from -1% to -14% overall and -1% to -17% on 1st and 10. Chuba Hubbard's averages in those two games: 25 opportunities, 100 total yards, and 1 touchdown. With the new coaching staff's approach, Hubbard is now one of the most valuable assets in all of fantasy football. He's at home although the matchup isn't ideal against a Falcons defense that ranks seventh in EPA/Play Allowed and fifth in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. But the elite volume you're getting at just $5,600 is a cash game cheat code.
Rachaad White ranks seventh in opportunities per game (19.5) and 15th in total yards per game (89.5) and has a favorable matchup against a Packers defense that ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7.
De'Von Achane is legitimately questionable, making Raheem Mostert a solid play once again. Mostert leads the NFL in touchdowns (18) and could see a larger workload than normal with inclement weather projected to affect this game and Tyreek Hill also in doubt of suiting up.
Breece Hall is a solid dual-threat in DraftKings full PPR scoring format. Hall's targets in his past three games: 9, 8, and 9. Hall caught 8 passes for 86 yards and 1 touchdown last week and projects to be targeted heavily once again in a come-from-behind game script against the Dolphins.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rashee Rice | at Patriots | $6,100 |
| 2 | DeAndre Hopkins | vs. Texans | $6,200 |
| 3 | Amari Cooper | vs. Bears | $6,000 |
| 4 | Brandin Cooks | at Bills | $5,200 |
| 5 | Elijah Moore | vs. Bears | $4,500 |
| 6 | Wan'Dale Robinson | at Saints | $3,700 |
Rashee Rice played on a season-high 85% of the snaps last week and his target totals over his past three games are 10, 9, and 10. He's clearly Patrick Mahomes II' #1 wide receiver and is in a fine spot against a Patriots defense that ranks 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. Rice is a clear value priced at just $6,100.
DeAndre Hopkins is Tennessee's clear-cut #1 pass catcher and has seen 12 targets in back-to-back games. His stat lines in those two: 5-75-1 and 7-124-1. Hopkins is at home in a favorable spot against a Texans defense that ranks 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. Like Rice, Hopkins is also a value, priced at just $6,200.
Amari Cooper ranks 20th in targets per game (8.1) and leads the Browns in targets (105) and receiving yards (876). He's priced at just $6,000 despite receiving a recent quarterback upgrade in Joe Flacco. Flacco ranks third in passing yards per game (282.5) and first in pass touchdowns per game (2.5). Elijah Moore has also benefited and his usage has increased as of late. Here are Moore's targets over the past five games: 7, 7, 9, 12, and 6.
**Brandin Cooks is listed as questionable due to an illness but still expected to play.** Dallas' clear-cut WR2 and is priced at just $5,200 despite playing in by far the best fantasy game of the week. The Cowboys at Bills has the highest Over/Under (50.5). The matchup is solid against a Bills defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Wan'Dale Robinson is a decent salary saver play. Coming out of the bye, Robinson played on a season-high 79% of the offensive snaps last week and caught 6 of 7 targets for 79 yards while adding 36 yards on 2 carries. ANd he has a good matchup against a Saints defense that only ranks 21st in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tucker Kraft | vs. Buccaneers | $3,000 |
| 2 | David Njoku | vs. Bears | $4,700 |
Luke Musgrave continues to miss time with an injury and Tucker Kraft is taking advantage. Kraft played on 100% of the offensive snaps and caught all four of his targets for 64 yards last week. He's priced at just $3,000 at home against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 28th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
The Bears have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game (11.1) to the tight end position this season. At the tight end position, David Njoku ranks fifth in targets (90), seventh in receptions (59), and seventh in receiving yards (600). He's caught four touchdowns as well, just two off the position lead.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dolphins | vs. Jets | $4,000 |
| 2 | Browns | vs. Bears | $3,500 |
| 3 | Jets | at Dolphins | $2,500 |
The weather looks like it will impact this Jets at Dolphins game to at least some degree. Showers, thunderstorms, and wind gusts as high as 40 miles per hour are all in the Sunday forecast. Both defenses are in play. The Jets D/ST is your salary saver and the Dolphins D/ST is the better play. Miami's defense leads the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 6 and they get to play at home against Zach Wilson.
Justin Fields has a high sack rate (11.1%) and the Browns defense ranks top ten in sacks (38). Cleveland plays this one at home.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Stafford | vs. Commanders | $6,000 |
| 2 | Josh Allen | vs. Cowboys | $8,200 |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | at Bills | $8,000 |
| 4 | Brock Purdy | at Cardinals | $6,800 |
Matthew Stafford is having a solid season and cementing his Hall of Fame candidacy. He leads a Rams offense that ranks ninth in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and 12th in Dropback EPA and ranks 11th in passing yards per game (255.2) and tenth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6). Priced at just $6,000, Stafford is hands down the best tournament and cash play of the week at home against a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
The Cowboys at Bills has the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week and for good reason. The Cowboys offense ranks second in EPA/Play, second in Dropback EPA, fourth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and fifth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). The Bills offense ranks fifth in EPA/Play, sixth in Dropback EPA, eighth in PROE, and eighth in EDPF. Dak Prescott ranks sixth in passing yards per game (269.6) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2.2). Josh Allen ranks ninth in passing yards per game (265.2) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9). Allen is the preferred play at home against a Cowboys defense that surprisingly only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7 but Prescott is cooking and has a favorable matchup in his own right against a Bills defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Brock Purdy leads the best offense in the NFL. The 49ers rank first in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA and Purdy ranks fifth in passing yards per game (273.3) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9). He has a great matchup and could go nuclear yet again against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan Robinson | at Panthers | $6,800 |
| 2 | Kyren Williams | vs. Commanders | $7,500 |
| 3 | Christian McCaffrey | at Cardinals | $9,300 |
| 4 | James Cook | vs. Cowboys | $6,300 |
| 5 | Tony Pollard | at Bills | $6,700 |
| 6 | Saquon Barkley | at Saints | $7,300 |
| 7 | Antonio Gibson | at Rams | $5,200 |
Bijan Robinson's opportunities over his last four games: 24, 22, 23, and 17. He has a dream matchup here against a Panthers defense that ranks 30th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7. Robinson is one of the favorites to finish as the RB1 overall this week and is priced at just $6,800.
Kyren Williams ranks fourth in opportunities per game (22), third in total yards per game (110), and fifth in touchdowns (10). He's at home in an incredible matchup against a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 7. The Rams have the second highest Implied Team Total (28) of the week.
Christian McCaffrey ranks second in opportunities per game (22.2), first in total yards per game (124.2), and second in touchdowns (17). He has a good matchup here against a bad Cardinals defense he put up 177 total yards and 4 touchdowns on earlier in the season.
In three games with new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, James Cook is averaging 19.7 opportunities per game (would rank seventh over the full season) and 114.3 total yards per game (would rank third over the full season). He's playing at home in the best fantasy game of the weekend against a Cowboys defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 7.
Tony Pollard ranks seventh in opportunities per game (19.5) and he's playing in the best fantasy game of the weekend against a Bills defense that only ranks 22nd in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in opportunities per game (22.9) and ranks eighth in total yards per game (96.6). This is a fun and sneaky good tournament spot against a struggling Saints team and defense that only ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Brian Robinson is out due to injury, propelling Antonio Gibson into the starting running back role in a great fantasy game with the week's second-highest Over/Under (49.5). Gibson is a talented pass catcher and has averaged five targets over his past five games. Gibson projects to see even more receiving and rushing work this week in a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that only ranks 20th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stefon Diggs | vs. Cowboys | $8,400 |
| 2 | CeeDee Lamb | at Bills | $9,200 |
| 3 | Deebo Samuel | at Cardinals | $7,700 |
| 4 | Brandon Aiyuk | at Cardinals | $7,200 |
| 5 | Puka Nacua | vs. Commanders | $7,300 |
| 6 | Cooper Kupp | vs. Commanders | $7,800 |
| 7 | Jayden Reed | vs. Buccaneers | $4,900 |
| 8 | Terry McLaurin | at Rams | $5,600 |
The Cowboys at Bills has the highest Over/Under (50.5) of the week and for good reason. The Cowboys offense ranks second in EPA/Play, second in Dropback EPA, fourth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and fifth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). The Bills offense ranks fifth in EPA/Play, sixth in Dropback EPA, eighth in PROE, and eighth in EDPF. Dak Prescott ranks sixth in passing yards per game (269.6) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2.2). Josh Allen ranks ninth in passing yards per game (265.2) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9). Allen is the preferred play at home against a Cowboys defense that surprisingly only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7 but Prescott is cooking and has a favorable matchup in his own right against a Bills defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. This puts Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb, two of the best receivers in the game, squarely in play. Diggs is strong tournament play thanks to his recent dip in production. Always take advantage of recency bias in tournaments!
The 49ers have the best offense in the NFL. They rank first in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk have played a large role in their success. Both players have WR1 overall upside in this spot against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Could we get prime Cooper Kupp at just the right time in the fantasy playoffs!? Here are Kupp's numbers over his past two games: 6-39-1 on 8 targets and 8-115-1 on 10 targets. This is the perfect spots for him to go nuclear at home against a Commanders defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. And Kupp isn't even the best wide receiver play on his own team. That would be Puka Nacua. Nacua ranks 11th in targets per game (9.7), 13th in receptions per game (6.3), and eighth in receiving yards per game (85.6). His rookie season has been nothing short of phenomenal and he's in a position in this incredible spot to post a career-best game.
Christian Watson is listed as doubtful after not practicing all week, making Jayden Reed one of the best plays of the week priced at just $4,900. The matchup is phenomenal at home against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 28th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. Reed is coming off of a ten target and four carry Week 14 and with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon both listed as questionable, look for Reed to once again be heavily utilized as a dual-threat.
This is mostly a gut recommendation but there is also some data to back it up. Terry McLaurin is a fun tournament play because he's going to go completely overlooked in one of the best fantasy games of the week with the second-highest Over/Under (49.5). The Commanders' offense ranks first in PROE and third in EDPF and they project to be playing from behind as they're 6.5-point road underdogs. The volume will be there so can McLaurin take advantage? He's a talented player and has a decent matchup against a Rams defense that ranks 15th in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. Use McLaurin as a runback option with your Rams stacks.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Kittle | at Cardinals | $5,800 |
| 2 | Jake Ferguson | at Bills | $4,800 |
| 3 | Trey McBride | vs. 49ers | $5,200 |
| 4 | Travis Kelce | at Patriots | $7,600 |
George Kittle only caught one pass in his matchup with the Cardinals earlier in the year. Take advantage of those overweighing that. He caught two touchdowns in each game against them last season. Kittle is always in play in tournaments due to his elite ceiling, but especially this week against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Jake Ferguson benefits from playing in the best fantasy game of the week and is seemingly getting stronger as his first full season as the Cowboys' starting tight end wears on. Ferguson has seen eight targets in back-to-back games and turned them into stat lines of 6-77-1 and 5-72. And Ferguson has a favorable matchup against a Bills defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Trey McBride looks like the next superstar tight end. Here are his target totals over the past six weeks: 14, 5, 9, 7, 9, and 9. McBride is Kyler Murray's #1 receiving option and should see a ton of volume in this one with the Cardinals 12.5-point underdogs to the Super Bowl favorite 49ers.
Travis Kelce has had a down season for his standards but still a very strong season through any other lens. At the tight end position, Kelce ranks third in targets (99), third in receptions (80), first in receiving yards (896), and tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (5). You can play Kelce at low ownership this week against an average Patriots defense that ranks 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giants | at Saints | $2,700 |
| 2 | Titans | vs. Texans | $3,700 |
The Giants D/ST is a salary saver but they've also been playing good football as of late. They rank fourth in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. And they get to tee off against injured and struggling Derek Carr.
C.J. Stroud is doubtful but it has already been reported that Case Keenum is going to start. Tank Dell is also out and Nico Collins is questionable. The once-promising Texans are now a shell of their former selves. The Titans D/ST will get to attack Keenum in this one at home.
Key Injuries
- Rhamondre Stevenson OUT - Upgrade Ezekiel Elliott
- Brian Robinson OUT - Upgrade Antonio Gibson
- Isiah Pacheco OUT - Upgrade Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Tank Dell OUT and Nico Collins Questionable - Upgrade Dalton Schultz, Nico Collins (Questionable), Noah Brown, Robert Woods, and John Metchie III
- Christian Watson Doubtful - Upgrade Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs
- C.J. Stroud Doubtful - Upgrade Titans D/ST
- Chris Olave Game Time Decision and Michael Thomas OUT - Upgrade Rashid Shaheed, A.T. Perry, and Taysom Hill
- Chris Godwin Game Time Decision - Upgrade Mike Evans, Trey Palmer, and Cade Otton
- Luke Musgrave OUT - Upgrade Tucker Kraft
- Elijah Mitchell OUT - Upgrade Jordan Mason
- Tyreek Hill Questionable
- Brandin Cooks Questionable
- De'Von Achane Questionable
- DJ Moore Questionable
- Darren Waller Questionable
- Aaron Jones Questionable
- AJ Dillon Questionable
- Marquise Brown Questionable
- Michael Wilson Questionable
- JuJu Smith-Schuster Questionable
- DeVante Parker Questionable
- Tyquan Thornton Questionable
- Dontayvion Wicks Questionable
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and/or Kyren Williams Runback Option: Terry McLaurin
- Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs Runback Options: CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard, Jake Ferguson, or Brandin Cooks
- Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and either Brandon Aiyuk or George Kittle