Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 48.5
- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers - Over/Under 43.5
- Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears - Over/Under 43.5
- Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 43.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- 49ers at home vs. Seahawks - Implied Team Total 28.5
- Ravens at home vs. Rams - Implied Team Total 24
- Saints at home vs. Panthers - Implied Team Total 21.5
- Browns at home vs. Jaguars - Implied Team Total 16.8
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Purdy | vs. Seahawks | $6,500 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | at Chargers | $5,800 |
Brock Purdy is currently the betting favorite to be the NFL MVP, and he absolutely deserves to be in that conversation. He leads a 49ers offense that ranks second in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and first in Dropback EPA and ranks eighth in passing yards per game (265.4) and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9). He's at home in a solid spot against a Seahawks defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Russell Wilson is in play as an affordable option. He's at home against a struggling Chargers defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. With the Broncos fighting tooth and nail to make the playoffs, Wilson has posted rushing lines of 34 yards and 1 touchdown and 44 yards and 1 touchdown over his past two games. And he ranks seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8).
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Moss | at Bengals | $5,900 |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey | vs. Seahawks | $9,200 |
| 3 | Kyren Williams | at Ravens | $7,300 |
| 4 | Josh Jacobs | vs. Vikings | $6,900 |
| 5 | Joe Mixon | vs. Colts | $6,100 |
Zack Moss didn't get there last week, but we will return to him this week, priced at just $5,900. In five games without Jonathan Taylor this season, Moss is averaging 23.6 opportunities per game. That's higher than any opportunity average in the NFL. And the matchup is strong against a Bengals defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Christian McCaffrey ranks second in opportunities per game (22.7), second in total yards per game (121.8), and first in touchdowns (17). He's at home against a struggling Seahawks defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Kyren Williams ranks sixth in opportunities per game (21.1), fourth in total yards per game (109.6), and fifth in touchdowns (10). He gets a Ravens defense that only ranks 26th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Josh Jacobs ranks second in opportunities per game (22.7) and is at home this week. The matchup is tough against a strong Vikings defense, but interim head coach Antonio Pierce is committed to feeding Jacobs.
Joe Mixon turned 26 opportunities into 117 total yards and 2 touchdowns last week and ranks ninth in opportunities per game (18.9). Without Joe Burrow, the offense has to lean on Mixon more and he's at home against a Colts defense that only ranks 30th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | at Bears | $8,200 |
| 2 | Ja'Marr Chase | vs. Colts | $7,600 |
| 3 | Deebo Samuel | vs. Seahawks | $6,800 |
| 4 | Brandon Aiyuk | vs. Seahawks | $6,900 |
| 5 | Nico Collins | at Jets | $7,600 |
| 6 | Michael Pittman Jr | at Bengals | $7,300 |
| 7 | Puka Nacua | at Ravens | $7,100 |
| 8 | Garrett Wilson | vs. Texans | $5,500 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks fifth in targets per game (10.5), receptions per game (7.6), and sixth in receiving yards per game (94.7). The Bears defense has been better as of late, but they're stronger against the run, which could funnel more targets St. Brown's way.
Jake Browning was solid last week, playing a role in Ja'Marr Chase catching 11 of 12 targets for 149 yards and 1 touchdown. Chase ranks sixth in targets per game (10.3), sixth in receptions per game (7.2), and eighth in receiving yards per game (88.6). While not likely, this game has sneaky high-scoring potential.
Both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are in play at home in a solid spot against a Seahawks defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
The matchup isn't ideal, but Nico Collins ranks seventh in receiving yards per game (90.1) and is no longer competing for targets with Tank Dell. Collins' quarterback, C.J. Stroud, leads the NFL in passing yards per game (295).
Michael Pittman is a beast. He ranks tied for second in targets per game (10.6), tied for second in target share (32%), fifth in receptions per game (7.3), and 16th in receiving yards per game (74.1). His matchup is really exciting against a Bengals defense that only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Puka Nacua ranks seventh in target share (30%), tenth in targets per game (9.8), 14th in receptions per game (6.4), and ninth in receiving yards per game (85.8). The matchup is tough against the Ravens but Nacua's volume is locked in.
Garrett Wilson is priced at just $5,500 and ranks tied for fourth in target share (31%) and ninth in targets per game (10). He can find success here at home against a Texans defense that ranks 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Hockenson | at Raiders | $6,000 |
| 2 | Sam LaPorta | at Bears | $6,100 |
| 3 | Cole Kmet | vs. Lions | $4,300 |
| 4 | David Njoku | vs. Jaguars | $4,100 |
T.J. Hockenson leads all tight ends in targets (105) and receptions (80) and ranks second in both receiving yards (787) and receiving touchdowns (5) at the position.
Sam LaPorta has crushed it this season as a rookie. Out of all tight ends he ranks fourth in targets (86), fourth in receptions (64), fourth in receiving yards (679), and first in touchdown receptions (6). He has a very favorable matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed the third most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (11.6) this season.
Cole Kmet is at home in an awesome matchup against a Lions defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. The game total sits at a decent 43.5 as well. Out of all tight ends, Kmet ranks seventh in targets (66), fifth in receptions (56), and second in touchdown receptions (5).
Out of all tight ends, David Njoku ranks fifth in targets (82), eighth in receptions (53), and eighth in receiving yards (509). Njoku has a favorable matchup at home against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the tenth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (10.6) this season. Njoku continues to be underpriced; this week at just $4,100.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns | vs. Jaguars | $3,000 |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | vs. Rams | $3,300 |
The Browns are three-point home favorites, and the Jaguars have the second-lowest Implied Team Total (13.8) of the week. Trevor Lawrence is questionable but seemingly a long shot to play.
The Ravens defense ranks first in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 7. They're 7.5-point home favorites in this spot.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Fields | vs. Lions | $6,800 |
| 2 | Josh Allen | at Chiefs | $8,300 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes II | vs. Bills | $7,900 |
| 4 | Lamar Jackson | vs. Rams | $7,700 |
Justin Fields has carried the ball 30 times over his past two games and is at home in an awesome matchup against a Lions defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. The game total sits at a decent 43.5 as well.
With the Eagles, Cowboys, and Dolphins all off the main slate, Bills at Chiefs is clearly the best fantasy game to attack. The Over/Under (48.5) is the highest on the main slate and it would be a shock if Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II didn't push each other to higher ceiling outcomes. Allen leads a Bills offense that ranks ninth in EPA/Play, seventh in Dropback EPA, tenth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and eighth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and he ranks sixth in passing yards per game (267.8) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2). And the matchup looks pretty solid as the Chiefs defense only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 16th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. But the true GPP game theory play is Patrick Mahomes II. The Chiefs offense has been struggling lately so recency bias should push Mahomes' ownership percentage down. That's exactly what we want. He's the best player in football playing at home with Josh Allen pushing him on the other side. And Mahomes' numbers this season are still awesome. He leads a Chiefs offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play, fifth in Dropback EPA, third in PROE, and second in EDPF and ranks ninth in passing yards per game (260.6) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). The matchup allows for Mahomes to hit his ceiling here as the Bills defense only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Lamar Jackson leads a Ravens offense that ranks seventh in EPA/Play, tenth in PROE, and 11th in EDPF and he's at home against an average Rams defense. Jackson's dual-threat ceiling outcome is arguably the highest at the quarterback position.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javonte Williams | at Chargers | $5,800 |
| 2 | Alvin Kamara | vs. Panthers | $8,200 |
| 3 | James Cook | at Chiefs | $6,000 |
| 4 | Jerick McKinnon | vs. Bills | $4,800 |
| 5 | Bijan Robinson | vs. Buccaneers | $6,500 |
| 6 | Austin Ekeler | vs. Broncos | $7,600 |
Javonte Williams has seen opportunity totals of 30, 25, and 24 within his past five games and he now gets the struggling Chargers defense that only ranks 24th in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7. Williams has 153 carries this season and, shockingly, no rushing touchdowns. Let's be early rather than late on this one. Positive rushing touchdown regression is coming.
Alvin Kamara ranks fourth in opportunities per game (22.4) and seventh in total yards per game (102.3). He's at home in an incredible matchup against the 1-11 Panthers whose defense only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7.
James Cook has seen 11 targets in two games with Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator. He's a fun dual-threat in the best fantasy matchup of the week against a struggling Chiefs defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Isiah Pacheco is out due to a shoulder injury. Expect Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to share the backfield but McKinnon's pass-catching role is more valuable in this exciting fantasy game. McKinnon scored nine total touchdowns and eight receiving touchdowns over the Chiefs' final six games to end the 2022 season. And the matchup is nice at home against a Bills defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Bijan Robinson's opportunities over his past three games: 24, 22, and 23. It's dangerous to try to predict what Arthur Smith is going to do, but Robinson has been the engine of the offense lately. That should continue at home against a Buccaneers defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 7.
Austin Ekeler is a fun GPP game theory play. His head coach is actively discussing reducing his workload, but that doesn't mean he can't still pay off as a dual-threat in a solid fantasy game against the Broncos. Ekeler ranks seventh in the NFL in opportunities per game (19.2), so he can lose touches and still get there.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DJ Moore | vs. Lions | $6,500 |
| 2 | Chris Olave | vs. Panthers | $7,000 |
| 3 | Stefon Diggs | at Chiefs | $8,800 |
| 4 | Keenan Allen | vs. Broncos | $8,600 |
| 5 | Justin Jefferson | at Raiders | $8,500 |
| 6 | Rashee Rice | vs. Bills | $5,400 |
| 7 | Zay Flowers | vs. Rams | $5,700 |
| 8 | Elijah Moore | vs. Jaguars | $4,500 |
| 9 | Jerry Jeudy | at Chargers | $4,700 |
| 10 | Drake London | vs. Buccaneers | $4,600 |
| 11 | Gabe Davis | at Chiefs | $5,800 |
| 12 | Jameson Williams | at Bears | $3,500 |
DJ Moore ranks tied for 11th with a 28% target share and 12th in receiving yards (83.6). He's at home in an awesome matchup against a Lions defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. The game total sits at a decent 43.5 as well.
Chris Olave has seen 8+ targets in seven straight games, is priced at just $7,000, and is at home in an incredible matchup against a Panthers defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
With the Eagles, Cowboys, and Dolphins all off the main slate, Bills at Chiefs is clearly the best fantasy game to attack. The Over/Under (48.5) is the highest on the main slate and it would be a shock if Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II didn't push each other to higher ceiling outcomes. That makes Stefon Diggs even more exciting than usual. Diggs ranks seventh in targets per game (10.1), eighth in receptions per game (6.9), and 14th in receiving yards per game (80.8). And the matchup looks pretty solid as the Chiefs defense only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 16th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Keenan Allen leads the NFL in targets per game (11.5) and receptions per game (8.5) and ranks fourth in receiving yards per game (97.9). He is the Chargers offense and Patrick Surtain doesn't shadow.
It's not often you can roster Justin Jefferson at low ownership, but you can do just that this weekend as he returns to play for the first time since Week 5. The Raiders defense has been solid recently, but Jefferson is matchup proof and will dominate targets as the Vikings fight to make the playoffs. Jefferson ranks second in targets per game (10.6) and second in receiving yards per game (114.2).
Rashee Rice is the secondary weapon whose value is going to skyrocket in this elite fantasy matchup. Rice played on a season-high 69% of the offensive snaps last week, has seen 19 targets over the past two weeks, and has caught 16 passes over the past two weeks. The matchup is nice at home against a Bills defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Without Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers is the #1 option in Baltimore. He's the only full-time receiver as the team seems to be managing Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham's reps. Flowers has played on 98% and 94% of the offensive snaps over his past two games.
Joe Flacco projects as the starting quarterback for the second week in a row. Last Sunday, he funneled 12 targets Elijah Moore's way. Flacco and Moore have a history as they played on the Jets together. Moore is priced at just $4,500, and Amari Cooper might not even play as he's dealing with a concussion.
Jerry Jeudy was wide open multiple times last week, but Russell Wilson didn't even look at him. This is purely a large-field tournament play. The squeaky wheel could get the grease here if Wilson and Sean Payton emphasize getting Jeudy the ball this week. This is a favorable fantasy game, and the matchup is decent at home against a struggling Chargers defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Drake London is priced at just $4,600, and he's at home against the pass funnel Buccaneers defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7.
Gabe Davis is another secondary weapon that could be elevated in this elite fantasy matchup. He caught 8 of 10 targets for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Chiefs in the playoffs two seasons ago.
Need a dirt-cheap option? Jameson Williams is priced at just $3,500, can score from anywhere on the field, and gets a Bears defense better at defending the run than the pass.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Kelce | vs. Bills | $7,800 |
| 2 | George Kittle | vs. Seahawks | $5,900 |
| 3 | Isaiah Likely | vs. Rams | $3,500 |
| 4 | Dalton Kincaid | at Chiefs | $5,500 |
With the Eagles, Cowboys, and Dolphins all off the main slate, Bills at Chiefs is clearly the best fantasy game to attack. The Over/Under (48.5) is the highest on the main slate and it would be a shock if Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II didn't push each other to higher ceiling outcomes. The matchup here is great for Travis Kelce at home against a Bills defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7. And the Bills have a history of struggling to cover Kelce. He's by far the best tight-end play on the main slate this week.
George Kittle is in a solid spot at home against a Seahawks defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed since Week 7, and his ceiling is as high as anyone at the tight end position.
Prior to Baltimore's Week 13 bye, Isaiah Likely took over for an injured Mark Andrews in Week 12, playing on 73% of the offensive snaps and catching 4 of 6 targets for 40 yards. Likely is priced at just $3,500 despite having this solid role in Baltimore's offense. And he has a great matchup this week at home against a Rams defense that has allowed the third most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (11.6) this season.
Even if Dawson Knox returns this week, the Bills are going to rely heavily on the first-round pick they traded up for in Dalton Kincaid as they fight for their playoff lives. Kincaid hasn't seen fewer than six targets in six straight games and is playing in by far the best fantasy matchup on the slate.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Texans | at Jets | $4,000 |
| 2 | New Orleans Saints | vs. Panthers | $3,900 |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | vs. Buccaneers | $2,900 |
The Texans have a serviceable defense this season and they get to square off with Zach Wilson and the Jets' awful offense this week. The Jets have the third-lowest Implied Team Total (15) of the week. And despite being benched for a few weeks, Wilson still has taken the third most sacks (38) on the season.
Bryce Young and the Panthers offense continue to struggle. Young has been sacked (44) the second most times in the entire NFL. The Saints are 5.5-point home favorites.
The Falcons defense ranks sixth in EPA/Play Allowed since Week 7. They're playing strong football right now and get Baker Mayfield at home this week.
Key Injuries
- Isiah Pacheco OUT - Upgrade Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz OUT - Upgrade Nico Collins, Noah Brown (Questionable), Robert Woods, Brevin Jordan and John Metchie III
- Jonathan Taylor OUT - Upgrade Zack Moss
- Michael Thomas OUT and Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill are both Questionable - Upgrade Chris Olave and A.T. Perry
- Elijah Mitchell Doubtful
- Trevor Lawrence Questionable
- Geno Smith Questionable
- Derek Carr Questionable
- Travis Etienne Jr. Questionable
- Breece Hall Questionable
- Ken Walker III Questionable
- Zach Charbonnet Questionable
- Samaje Perine Questionable
- Noah Brown Questionable
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice Runback Options: Stefon Diggs and/or James Cook
- Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and James Cook Runback Options: Travis Kelce and/or Rashee Rice and/or Jerick McKinnon
- Justin Fields and DJ Moore