Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 48.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans - Over/Under 47.5
- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals - Over/Under 44.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Chiefs on road vs. Raiders - Implied Team Total 26.5
- Titans at home vs. Panthers - Implied Team Total 20.5
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Murray | vs. Rams | $6,900 |
| 2 | Matthew Stafford | at Cardinals | $6,300 |
This Cardinals at Rams game is a fun one despite the slightly low 44.5 Vegas total. Kyler Murray has shown no signs of his ACL injury from last season and has a rushing touchdown in each start this year. Murray is at home in a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that ranks 21st in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Matthew Stafford has an even better matchup in this favorable fantasy game against a Cardinals defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed. I'll keep saying it until positive regression hits: Stafford is only averaging one pass touchdown per game despite ranking 11th in passing yards per game (251.1). Stafford likely has a three-touchdown game coming and when it hits he might help win tournaments.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saquon Barkley | vs. Patriots | $7,300 |
| 2 | Alvin Kamara | at Falcons | $8,400 |
| 3 | Josh Jacobs | vs. Chiefs | $6,700 |
| 4 | James Conner | vs. Rams | $5,900 |
| 5 | Jerome Ford | at Broncos | $5,600 |
Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in opportunities per game (23.8) and ranks seventh in total yards per game (101.6). He's at home against a Patriots defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed.
Alvin Kamara ranks second in opportunities per game (22.9) and tenth in total yards per game (99). The matchup isn't ideal here but look for New Orleans to lean on their workhorse in an important NFC South matchup.
The Raiders and interim head coach Antonio Pierce are going to lean on Josh Jacobs here at home against the Chiefs. Jacobs ranks fourth in opportunities per game (22.4) and has a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that only ranks 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.
James Conner has seen 16 and 17 opportunities over the past two games since returning from injury. He has locked in volume here at home in a good matchup against a Rams defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed.
The Broncos defense has played lights out ever since their 70-point debacle against the Dolphins. But their run defense is still a weakness. The Broncos defense only ranks 25th in Rush EPA Allowed. With Deshaun Watson on Injured Reserve, look for the Browns to lean on Jerome Ford in this one.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Ridley | at Texans | $6,000 |
| 2 | Tank Dell | vs. Jaguars | $6,900 |
| 3 | Nico Collins | vs. Jaguars | $6,400 |
| 4 | Davante Adams | vs. Chiefs | $7,800 |
| 5 | Drake London | vs. Saints | $5,000 |
| 6 | Demario Douglas | at Giants | $4,400 |
Calvin Ridley got off the schneid in a massive way last week catching 7 of 9 targets for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns. Admittedly, Ridley is not a safe cash play as his floor is lower than we'd like but it's surprising to see him priced at just $6,000. And the matchup is a good one at home in one of the best fantasy games and the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) of the weekend against a Texans defense that only ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.
C.J. Stroud continues to absolutely ball out. He leads the NFL in passing yards per game (296.2) and his top two weapons, Tank Dell and Nico Collins are massive reasons why. The matchup isn't ideal here against a tough Jaguars defense but this is one of the best fantasy games and the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) of the weekend. Stroud's passing yards should be there and Dell and Collins should benefit, especially with Noah Brown out and not playing.
The Raiders are 8.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs so no matter how much interim head coach Antonio Pierce wants to run the football, game script projects to force the Raiders offense into a pass-heavy approach quickly. Under Pierce, Adams has seen 13 targets in back-to-back games and projects to see massive volume once again on Sunday.
Marshon Lattimore won't play in this one which massively upgrades Drake London's outlook. Priced at just $5,000, London presents the opportunity to roster a talented WR1 in a competitive NFC South showdown at an affordable price.
While we don't yet know who will be playing quarterback for the Patriots, we do know Demario Douglas has a favorable matchup against a Giants defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Douglas is priced at just $4,400 despite clearly being New England's WR1. Douglas' targets over his past three games: 7, 7, and 9.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | vs. Rams | $4,700 |
| 2 | David Njoku | at Broncos | $4,100 |
| 3 | Michael Mayer | vs. Chiefs | $2,800 |
Michael Wilson is OUT and Marquise Brown is legitimately questionable. This sets up for Trey McBride to continue to dominate. McBride has seen 16 targets over his past two games and has games of 95 and 131 receiving yards over his past four contests. He's priced at just $4,700 at home in a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that ranks 21st in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
David Njoku is a target dominator right now. He has seen 9 and 15 targets over his past two games and has a great matchup against a Broncos defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game (13.4) to the tight end position this season.
Michael Mayer has played on 80% or more of the offensive snaps in four straight games and is priced at just $2,800 in a game the Raiders project to have to go pass-heavy in order to keep up with the Chiefs.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | at Raiders | $3,200 |
| 2 | Browns | at Broncos | $3,800 |
The Chiefs have one of the league's best defenses this season. They rank fourth in EPA/Play Allowed. They're 8.5-point favorites in this one and the Raiders have the sixth-lowest Implies Team Total (17.3) of the week.
The Browns defense is dominant. They have the front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year in Myles Garrett and rank third in EPA/Play Allowed. Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense has been solid as of late but Cleveland's defense should be able to stymie the run-heavy balanced approach Sean Payton wants to utilize.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen Hurts | vs. Bills | $8,300 |
| 2 | Josh Allen | at Eagles | $8,100 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes II | at Raiders | $8,200 |
| 4 | Trevor Lawrence | vs. Jaguars | $6,400 |
Jalen Hurts leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game and leads an Eagles offense that ranks fifth in EPA/Play and fifth in Dropback EPA. He's at home in the best fantasy game and the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the weekend against a struggling Bills defense that only ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Josh Allen ranks second in quarterback fantasy points per game (22.5) and ranks eighth in passing yards per game (261.4) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2). He leads a Bills offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play and ninth in Dropback EPA. He's playing in the best fantasy game and the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the weekend, which increases his already massive upside.
No one is going to want to play Patrick Mahomes II after the Chiefs' recent offensive struggles. But he's Mahomes and any time we have a chance to roster him at low ownership in tournaments we simply must oblige. Mahomes leads a Chiefs offense that ranks seventh in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA and ranks seventh in passing yards per game (261.9) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9). Those are pretty good numbers despite the negative aroma surrounding his offense right now!
Trevor Lawrence is at home in one of the best fantasy games and the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) of the weekend. Coming off a solid performance, Lawrence could keep it going here against a Texans defense that only ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | vs. Panthers | $6,400 |
| 2 | Travis Etienne Jr. | at Texans | $7,100 |
| 3 | Kyren Williams | at Cardinals | $6,600 |
| 4 | Rhamondre Stevenson | at Giants | $5,800 |
| 5 | Isiah Pacheco | at Raiders | $6,200 |
| 6 | D'Andre Swift | vs. Bills | $6,800 |
| 7 | James Cook | at Eagles | $6,200 |
It's Derrick Henry week folks. Enjoy. The Titans are four-point home favorites against the struggling Panthers. Carolina's defense only ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and they're dead last in Rush EPA Allowed. Henry ranks 13th in opportunities per game (18.2) but can get game scripted out when the Titans are losing. This doesn't project to be one of those games. Massive volume and success are on the way here.
The Jaguars seem to have intentionally limited Travis Etienne Jr.s touches over the past two weeks and I have a theory why. This week, they have a crucial AFC South matchup on tap against the soaring Houston Texans and C.J. Stroud. Jacksonville likely wanted Etienne at full strength for this one. Etienne ranks fifth in opportunities per game (21.6) and 13th in total yards per game (95.2) and should be unleashed in this spot.
Kyren Williams returns from short-term Injured Reserve this week and Sean McVay has said he will have a normal workload. A "normal" workload for Williams is massive. He ranks sixth in opportunities per game (20.2) and 15th in total yards per game (93.5). And the matchup is great here against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Rush EPA Allowed.
Rhamondre Stevenson has impressed over the past few weeks posting 129 total yards and 1 touchdown in Week 10 and 102 total yards in Week 11. Look for the Patriots' offense to lean heavily on Stevenson once again in a favorable matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed. And the matchup looks way better with Dexter Lawrence doubtful for New York, opening up a massive hole in the interior of their defensive lines.
The Chiefs offense should find plenty of success in this one against an average Raiders defense and Isiah Pacheco is arguably set up the best. The Raiders defense only ranks 28th in Rush EPA Allowed and Pacheco ranks 17th in the league in opportunities per game (17.2). A multi-touchdown game is certainly possible here, especially with red zone weapon Jerick McKinnon out and not playing.
D'Andre Swift is at home in the best fantasy game and the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the weekend against a struggling Bills defense that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed. Swift ranks 11th in the NFL in opportunities per game (18.5).
In just his first game with the new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, James Cook tied his season high in opportunities in a game with 21. He turned his volume into 102 total yards and 1 touchdown. The dual threat should be leaned on once again here in the best fantasy game and the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the weekend against an Eagles defense that only ranks 19th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Brown | vs. Bills | $8,800 |
| 2 | Stefon Diggs | at Eagles | $8,700 |
| 3 | Puka Nacua | at Cardinals | $8,200 |
| 4 | Christian Kirk | at Texans | $6,800 |
| 5 | DeVonta Smith | vs. Bills | $7,100 |
| 6 | Michael Pittman | vs. Buccaneers | $6,800 |
| 7 | Khalil Shakir | at Eagles | $3,600 |
Dallas Goedert remains out and A.J. Brown had a down game last week. It's time to roll right back to him in tournaments. He's at home in the best fantasy game and the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the weekend against a struggling Bills defense that only ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed. And Brown has had yet another amazingly efficient season. Brown ranks just 12th in targets per game (9.6) but third in receiving yards per game (101.3). But don't forget about DeVonta Smith, who also greatly benefits from the absence of Goedert. We saw that come to fruition last week as Smith caught 6 of 8 targets for 99 yards.
Stefon Diggs doesn't have as favorable of a matchup as A.J. Brown does but he'll also benefit from playing in this favorable potential fantasy shootout and he's been lights out this season just like Brown. Diggs ranks ninth in targets per game (10), tenth in receptions per game (7), and 12th in receiving yards per game (81.4).
Cooper Kupp will play on Sunday but he should be expected to be at less than 100%. That increases Puka Nacua's outlook. Nacua has an awesome matchup here against a Cardinals defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed. And he's been incredible this season ranking sixth in targets per game (10.3), 11th in receptions per game (6.9), and eighth in receiving yards per game (89.7).
Trevor Lawrence is at home in one of the best fantasy games and the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) of the weekend. Coming off a solid performance, Lawrence could keep it going here against a Texans defense that only ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. That bodes well for Christian Kirk, who leads the Jaguars in targets (77) and receiving yards (672).
Michael Pittman is set up incredibly well here. The Buccaneers are a pass funnel as they have a strong run defense but one of the weakest pass defenses in the NFL. Tampa Bay's defense only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Favorable fantasy environments and potential shootouts upgrade the outlook of all involved, including the secondary and tertiary receivers. Khalil Shakir's offensive snap percentages over the past two games spanning two different offensive coordinators: 76% and 74%. He's priced at just $3,600.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dalton Kincaid | at Eagles | $5,300 |
| 2 | Evan Engram | at Texans | $4,200 |
| 3 | Travis Kelce | at Raiders | $8,200 |
| 4 | Dalton Schultz | vs. Jaguars | $5,400 |
Dalton Kincaid has been the primary tight end with Dawson Knox on injured reserve and he hasn't disappointed. His talent has been evident and he's seen target totals of 8, 7, 11, 6, and 7 over his past five contests. Kincaid offers strong upside in this projected shootout against the Eagles.
Trevor Lawrence is at home in one of the best fantasy games and the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) of the weekend. Coming off a solid performance, Lawrence could keep it going here against a Texans defense that only ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. That makes Evan Engram a fun play. Engram leads the Jaguars in receptions (59) but has yet to find the end zone this season. He's due!
Travis Kelce hasn't posted a huge game in over a month and is priced significantly higher than all other tight ends. For these reasons, he'll be low-owned this week. While not the strongest tight end play on paper, Kelce must be made a priority any time he's going to be low-owned in tournaments.
This is a solid matchup for Dalton Schultz specifically as the Jaguars defense is strong overall but has allowed the third most fantasy points per game (13.4) to the tight end position this season.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos | vs. Browns | $3,200 |
| 2 | Titans | vs. Panthers | $3,400 |
| 3 | Bengals | vs. Steelers | $3,300 |
Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start his third NFL game on the road in Denver against one of the hottest defenses in football. He's thrown 0 touchdowns and four interceptions while being sacked 5 times through two starts to date. Advantage: Broncos defense.
The Titans defense isn't anything special. This is more of an indictment of the Panthers' offense. Carolina has the third-lowest Implied Team Total (16.5) of the week and Bryce Young has taken the third most sacks (36) of the year.
Matt Canada was finally fired but don't expect significant improvement right away, if ever, because Kenny Pickett simply isn't it. Pickett has thrown just 13 touchdowns in 23 career games. Lou Anarumo awaits in Cincinnati this weekend. Advantage: Bengals defense.
Key Injuries
- Joe Burrow OUT - Upgrade Steelers D/ST
- Tee Higgins OUT - Upgrade Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd
- Dallas Goedert OUT - Upgrade A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
- Jerick McKinnon OUT - Upgrade Isiah Pacheco
- Noah Brown OUT - Upgrade Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Dalton Schultz
- Michael Wilson OUT - Upgrade Marquise Brown (Questionable - IF he plays), Trey McBride, Rondale Moore, and Greg Dortch
- Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman both OUT - Upgrade Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- Treylon Burks OUT - Upgrade DeAndre Hopkins
- Marshon Lattimore OUT - Upgrade Drake London and Kyle Pitts
- Lavonte David OUT - Upgrade Jonathan Taylor
- Kendre Miller OUT - Upgrade Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams
- Hayden Hurst OUT - Upgrade Tommy Tremble
- Dexter Lawrence Doubtful - Upgrade Rhamondre Stevenson
- Darius Slayton Doubtful - Upgrade Jalin Hyatt, Isaiah Hodgins, and Wan'Dale Robinson
- Rachaad White Questionable
- Dameon Pierce Questionable
- Marquise Brown Questionable
- DeVante Parker Questionable
- Zay Jones Questionable
- Emari Demercado Questionable
- Quez Watkins Questionable
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown
- Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs
- Patrick Mahomes II and Travis Kelce
- Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram