Favorite Fantasy Game Environments
- Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans - Over/Under 48.5
- Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams - Over/Under 46.5
Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots
- Dolphins at home vs. Raiders - Implied Team Total 29.5
- Lions at home vs. Bears - Implied Team Total 27.5
- Cowboys on road vs. Panthers - Implied Team Total 26.0
- 49ers at home vs. Buccaneers - Implied Team Total 26.5
- Commanders at home vs. Giants - Implied Team Total 23.0
- Jaguars at home vs. Titans - Implied Team Total 23.8
- Chargers on road vs. Packers - Implied Team Total 23.3
- Bills at home vs. Jets - Implied Team Total 23.5
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dak Prescott | at Panthers | $7,300 |
| 2 | Jared Goff | vs. Bears | $6,600 |
| 3 | Kyler Murray | at Texans | $6,100 |
Dak Prescott is on an absolute heater right now. He's thrown for 1,082 yards and 11 touchdowns over his past three games. He ranks seventh in passing yards per game (268.3) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9) and leads a Cowboys offense that ranks fifth in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), fifth in Dropback EPA, sixth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and fifth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He has a favorable matchup here against a Panthers defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 15th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Jared Goff is at home in the dome against a Bears defense that only ranks 29th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. And, of course, we know the Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL. Goff leads a Lions offense that ranks eighth in EPA/Play and seventh in Dropback EPA.
Kyler Murray returned last week and looked like his old self rushing for 33 yards and 1 touchdown. He's in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Texans defense that only ranks 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devin Singletary | vs. Cardinals | $5,300 |
| 2 | Austin Ekeler | at Packers | $8,600 |
| 3 | Christian McCaffrey | vs. Buccaneers | $9,300 |
| 4 | Josh Jacobs | at Dolphins | $6,800 |
| 5 | Jerome Ford | vs. Steelers | $5,200 |
| 6 | Breece Hall | at Bills | $6,400 |
Dameon Pierce is out once again, putting Devin Singletary in line to start at home against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Rush EPA Allowed. This matchup has the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week, and Singletary is coming off of a Week 10 performance where he turned 31 touches into 161 total yards and 1 touchdown. Singletary is a very strong cash play priced at just $5,300.
Austin Ekeler ranks sixth in opportunities per game (21.2) and 11th in total yards per game (96.7) and has a juicy matchup on tap against a Packers defense that only ranks 23rd in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Christian McCaffrey has a tough matchup against a Buccaneers defense that leads the NFL in Rush EPA Allowed. But McCaffrey is an elite dual-threat who could dominate in the receiving game, ranking fourth in opportunities per game (22.2) and third in total yards per game (120.7).
Josh Jacobs is the engine of the Raiders' offense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Jacobs ranks second in opportunities per game (23.1) and has a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Rush EPA Allowed. Expect Jacobs to get a lot of work even if the Raiders get down early.
With Deshaun Watson lost for the season, expect the Browns offense to heavily utilize their running game moving forward. The Browns are 1.5-point home favorites here, which is a spot where they should be able to utilize Jerome Ford the way they'd like to. And Ford has a favorable matchup against a Steelers defense that only ranks 20th in Rush EPA Allowed.
The Bills defense is banged up and struggling and Breece Hall is averaging 19.8 opportunities per game over his past five contests. That workload would rank eighth in the NFL if over the full season. And the Jets just released Michael Carter this week, which could free up even more chances for the mega-talented Hall.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CeeDee Lamb | vs. Panthers | $9,200 |
| 2 | Tank Dell | vs. Cardinals | $5,900 |
| 3 | Davante Adams | at Dolphins | $7,900 |
| 4 | D.J. Moore | at Lions | $5,600 |
| 5 | Brandin Cooks | at Panthers | $4,700 |
CeeDee Lamb is on another level right now, just like his quarterback Dak Prescott. Here are Lamb's numbers over his past three games: 12-158-2 on 14 targets, 11-191 on 16 targets, and 11-151-1 on 14 targets. He has a favorable matchup here to help him keep balling against a Panthers defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 15th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Noah Brown is out, and Nico Collins is expected to return from injury. The constant here is Tank Dell, who has produced 6-114-2 on 11 targets and 6-56-1 on 14 targets over his past two games. He's at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
The Raiders are 12.5-point underdogs on the road in Miami. Coming off a 13-target game last week, look for interim head coach Antonio Pierce to funnel Adams targets in this one. Remember, Jalen Ramsey has returned, but the matchup is still decent against a Dolphins defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
The Bears are 7.5-point underdogs on the road in Detroit. D.J. Moore should be funneled targets, and his quarterback play is being upgraded massively with the return of a healthy Justin Fields here. It's nice to get a strong talent like Moore, who projects to benefit from a favorable game script as affordable as he is this week in cash.
Dak Prescott has brought Brandin Cooks along for the ride lately. Cooks has scored a touchdown in three of his past four games and is coming off of a monster 9-173-1 on 10 targets performance last week. Priced at just $4,700, Cooks is a salary saver in cash in a favorable matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 15th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | at Texans | $4,400 |
| 2 | Dalton Kincaid | vs. Jets | $4,900 |
| 3 | David Njoku | vs. Steelers | $3,900 |
| 4 | Michael Mayer | at Dolphins | $2,700 |
In Trey McBride's first game with Kyler Murray last week, he went 8-131 on 9 targets and is priced at just $4,400 despite playing in the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week against a Texans defense that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Dalton Kincaid has become a massive part of this passing offense over the past three weeks. Here are his numbers over that span: 5-65-1 on 7 targets, 10-81 on 11 targets, and 5-51-1 on 6 targets. Josh Allen could lean on him a bit more heavily this week, with Stefon Diggs dealing with a decent amount of Sauce Gardner on the outside.
David Njoku is priced at just $3,900 yet has seen reliable target volume over the past month. Here are his targets in his past four games: 9, 8, 6, and 9.
Michael Mayer's offensive snap percentages over his past three games: 91%, 88%, and 88%. Mayer ran a route on 22 of 32 dropbacks (69%) last week. He's priced at just $2,700 in a matchup where the Raiders are projected to play from behind for the majority of the contest.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | at Panthers | $4,100 |
| 2 | Cleveland Browns | vs. Steelers | $3,700 |
The Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites against a mightily struggling Panthers offense that has the third-lowest Implied Team Total (15.5) of the week.
The Browns defense ranks third in EPA/Play Allowed, and the Browns are 1.5-point home favorites against the uninspiring Kenny Pickett.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tua Tagovailoa | vs. Raiders | $7,700 |
| 2 | C.J. Stroud | vs. Cardinals | $7,000 |
| 3 | Sam Howell | vs. Giants | $6,300 |
| 4 | Brock Purdy | vs. Buccaneers | $5,800 |
| 5 | Trevor Lawrence | vs. Titans | $6,000 |
Coming off the bye, some may have forgotten, but Tua Tagovailoa is the truth. He ranks third in passing yards per game (289.9) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.1) and leads a Dolphins offense that ranks first in EPA/Play, first in Dropback EPA, fifth in EDPF, and fourth in PROE. He's at home this week against an average Raiders defense.
C.J. Stroud continues to impress. He leads the NFL in passing yards per game (291.8) and ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7) and leads a Texans offense that ranks tenth in EPA/Play and eighth in Dropback EPA. He's at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
It's completely shocking to see Sam Howell priced at just $6,300. DraftKings is completely asleep at the wheel here. Eric Bieniemy is steering one of the most pass-heavy ships in the NFL as the Commanders rank second in both EDPF and PROE. And Howell is delivering. He ranks fifth in passing yards per game (278.3) and ninth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7). This is a dream spot at home against a bad Giants defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
The Buccaneers defense is a pass funnel. They lead the NFL in Rush EPA Allowed but only rank 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Look for Kyle Shanahan to unleash Purdy here with a more pass-heavy attack than normal. Purdy, who leads a 49ers offense that ranks second in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA, can go off in this favorable spot.
Trevor Lawrence is a complete afterthought after a stinker of a performance last week against the 49ers. But getting blown out by San Francisco isn't that much of a red flag. It happened to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys earlier in the year, and no passing offense is hotter now than Dallas. This is a much better spot for Lawrence at home against a bad Titans defense that only ranks 26th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Jacksonville's offense runs through Lawrence as they rank fifth in PROE. Catching lightning in the bottle with Lawrence at extremely low ownership could be a tournament difference-maker this week.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Robinson Jr | vs. Giants | $5,800 |
| 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | vs. Bears | $7,000 |
| 3 | David Montgomery | vs. Bears | $6,500 |
| 4 | Tony Pollard | at Panthers | $6,600 |
| 5 | Travis Etienne Jr. | vs. Titans | $7,200 |
| 6 | De'Von Achane | vs. Raiders | $6,600 |
Antonio Gibson is doubtful, which is extremely significant. Brian Robinson Jr has shared the backfield with Gibson all season long. Robinson has played on 340 snaps while Gibson has played on 307 snaps. No other running back has played on more than 21 snaps all year long. Robinson is in an ideal situation here with the Commanders at home as 9.5-point favorites, and the Giants defense only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Rush EPA Allowed. Priced at just $5,800, Robinson is a lock.
The Lions are 7.5-point home favorites against the Bears, and both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs rank in the top 15 of the league in opportunities per game and total yards per game. Dan Campbell's new Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara from his Saints days, Montgomery and Gibbs have massive upside here. Gibbs is the preference over Montgomery because he's more of the pass catcher, and the Bears actually have a decently strong run defense.
The masses have given up on Tony Pollard. It's time to once again pounce in tournaments. The Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites, Pollard ranks ninth in opportunities per game (18.9), and the matchup is near perfect against a Panthers defense that only ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed. Pollard scored twice in Week 1 and hasn't found paydirt since. Positive touchdown regression could hit massively here.
It's a great time to hop back on the Travis Etienne Jr. train after last week's down game. Etienne ranks fifth in opportunities per game (22.1) and ninth in total yards per game (99.2). The Jaguars are seven-point home favorites, and the Titans defense only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Rush EPA Allowed.
De'Von Achane projects to return this week at home against a Raiders defense that only ranks 28th in Rush EPA Allowed. Don't let Achane's absence distract you from the fact he leads the NFL in total yards per game (131.8).
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terry McLaurin | vs. Giants | $5,800 |
| 2 | Tyreek Hill | vs. Raiders | $9,300 |
| 3 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | vs. Bears | $8,800 |
| 4 | Cooper Kupp | vs. Seahawks | $8,100 |
| 5 | Jaylen Waddle | vs. Raiders | $7,600 |
| 6 | Brandon Aiyuk | vs. Buccaneers | $7,200 |
| 7 | Deebo Samuel | vs. Buccaneers | $6,300 |
| 8 | DK Metcalf | at Rams | $6,900 |
| 9 | Tyler Lockett | at Rams | $6,500 |
| 10 | Christian Kirk | vs. Titans | $6,000 |
| 11 | Marquise Brown | at Texans | $5,300 |
This is a smash spot for Terry McLaurin. Eric Bieniemy is steering one of the most pass-heavy ships in the NFL as the Commanders rank second in both EDPF and PROE, and the matchup is awesome at home against a bad Giants defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Sam Howell has been spreading the ball around, but that will also keep McLaurin's ownership down. This is the time to jump at the chance of winning a tournament with a vintage alpha McLaurin game.
Tua Tagovailoa ranks third in passing yards per game (289.9) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.1) and leads a Dolphins offense that ranks first in EPA/Play, first in Dropback EPA, fifth in EDPF, and fourth in PROE. Miami is at home this week against an average Raiders defense. Tyreek Hill and a healthy Jaylen Waddle coming off the bye have exciting ceilings in this one.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks second in targets per game (10.9), first in receptions per game (8.1), and fifth in receiving yards per game (102.6). He's going to dominate this matchup at home in the dome against a Bears defense that only ranks 29th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Cooper Kupp's first two appearances of the season resulted in 8-118 on 12 targets and 7-148-1 on 9 targets. Things tailed off after that, partly due to Matthew Stafford's thumb injury. Healthy and at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week, Kupp should produce like we expected entering the season against an average Seahawks defense that ranks 17th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
The Buccaneers defense is a pass funnel. They lead the NFL in Rush EPA Allowed but only rank 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Look for Kyle Shanahan to unleash Brock Purdy here with a more pass-heavy attack than normal. Purdy, who leads a 49ers offense that ranks second in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA, can go off in this favorable spot. That makes Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel both extremely exciting in tournaments. Both present high ceilings. Aiyuk is the preferred play, but it is shocking to see Samuel priced at just $6,300.
The Seahawks at Rams game is tied for the third-highest Over/Under of the week (46.5). The matchup is favorable here for Geno Smith and company against a Rams defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have high ceilings in this spot. Metcalf is the preferred tournament target since he might go a bit overlooked since he hasn't scored a touchdown in four straight games. And Lockett's status must be monitored as he is listed as questionable.
Christian Kirk is in a favorable spot at home against a bad Titans defense that only ranks 26th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. Kirk is the Jaguars' WR1. He has seen 10 more targets than Calvin Ridley, caught 14 more passes than Ridley, and totaled 153 more receiving yards than Ridley on the season.
This matchup has the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week, and Kyler Murray's presence drastically increases Marquise Brown's ceiling. The matchup can be had against a Texans defense that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Evan Engram | vs. Titans | $4,300 |
| 2 | Logan Thomas | vs. Giants | $3,700 |
| 3 | George Kittle | vs. Buccaneers | $6,400 |
| 4 | Jake Ferguson | at Panthers | $4,600 |
| 5 | Sam LaPorta | vs. Bears | $5,800 |
| 6 | Dalton Schultz | vs. Cardinals | $5,000 |
Here are Evan Engram's target totals over his past eight games: 8, 8, 8, 8, 7, 7, 10, 7. Engram has a favorable matchup at home against a bad Titans defense that only ranks 26th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. And let's not forget what Engram did to Tennessee last year in Week 14. Engram put up 11-162-2 on 15 targets in that contest.
Logan Thomas ran a route on 41 of 47 dropbacks (87.2%) last week and now gets to play at home against a bad Giants defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed. There is upside here priced at just $3,700.
The Buccaneers defense is a pass funnel. They lead the NFL in Rush EPA Allowed but only rank 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Look for Kyle Shanahan to unleash Brock Purdy here with a more pass-heavy attack than normal. Purdy, who leads a 49ers offense that ranks second in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA, can go off in this favorable spot. This presents another opportunity for George Kittle, one of football's most talented tight ends, to post another ceiling game.
Jake Ferguson has scored a touchdown in three straight games and seen 17 targets over his past two contests. He's in a favorable spot here to keep his positive momentum going against a Panthers defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and 15th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
At home in the dome against a Bears defense that only ranks 29th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed, Sam LaPorta is a solid tournament tight end play with a high ceiling within his range of outcomes.
Dalton Schultz has scored a touchdown in four of his past six games and has shown remarkable chemistry as of late with Rookie of the Year runaway C.J. Stroud. He's at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week against a Cardinals defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.
Team Defenses
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions | vs. Bears | $3,800 |
| 2 | Washington Commanders | vs. Giants | $3,600 |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | vs. Titans | $3,400 |
Justin Fields has the fifth-highest sack percentage (12.9) in the NFL. The Lions are 7.5-point home favorites and will be able to set their sights on Fields all day.
Tommy DeVito has been sacked 11 times and thrown three interceptions over the past two games. Despite Washington's struggles on defense, this is a great spot for them at home against a banged-up and struggling offense.
The Jaguars are seven-point home favorites, and their defense ranks second best in EPA/Play Allowed. Will Levis has been sacked eight times and thrown two interceptions over the past two games.
Key Injuries
- Dameon Pierce OUT - Upgrade Devin Singletary
- Deshaun Watson OUT - Upgrade Browns running game
- Michael Carter Released - Upgrade Breece Hall
- Treylon Burks OUT - Upgrade DeAndre Hopkins and Chigoziem Okonkwo
- Noah Brown Questionable but expected to be OUT - Upgrade Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Dalton Schultz
- Gerald Everett OUT - Upgrade Donald Parham Jr
- Hayden Hurst OUT - Upgrade Tommy Tremble
- Chase Claypool OUT - Upgrade Cedrick Wilson Jr.
- Antonio Gibson Doubtful - Upgrade Brian Robinson Jr
- Keenan Allen Questionable
- Garrett Wilson Questionable
- Tyler Lockett Questionable
- Zay Jones Questionable
- Jalen Guyton Questionable
- Braxton Berrios Questionable