Cracking DraftKings Week 10

Favorite Fantasy Game Environments

• Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers - Over/Under 48.5
• Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 47.5
• Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 45.5
• San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/Under 45.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Cowboys at home vs. Giants - Implied Team Total 27.5

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud has been a rookie revelation. He leads an offense that ranks 13th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) and ninth in Dropback EPA and ranks third in passing yards per game (283.8) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). Stroud does have a much more difficult matchup here on the road against Lou Anarumo than he did last week when he threw for 470 yards and 5 touchdowns. Still, though, he just threw for 470 yards and 5 touchdowns! This Texans at Bengals matchup could bring fireworks as it pits two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL against each other.

Justin Herbert is at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week. The matchup is tough but the value of the fantasy game should help with both offenses going back and forth. Herbert has been solid this year as he leads a Chargers offense that ranks fifth in EPA/Play and sixth in Dropback EPA.

Sam Howell is fun for fantasy. He ranks fourth in passing yards per game (274.6) and tenth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6). He's priced at just $5,900 and is a fun fantasy matchup against an average Seahawks defense.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey remains elite. He ranks fifth in opportunities per game (21.8), third in total yards per game (118), and tied for first in total touchdowns (13). He's matchup-proof.

The 49ers defense surprisingly has struggled against the run this year. They only rank 26th in Rush EPA Allowed. Meanwhile, Travis Etienne Jr. has arguably been the fantasy football MVP so far. He ranks third in opportunities per game (23.3), seventh in total yards per game (106.1), and tied for third in total touchdowns (8).

Austin Ekeler is at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week and ranks seventh in opportunities per game (20.2). The talented dual-threat should be plenty busy in a back-and-forth fantasy game.

Joe Mixon ranks tenth in opportunities per game (19.5), is priced at just $6,200, and gets to play at home against a Texans defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed. He may receive a few more looks with Tee Higgins out as well.

Najee Harris is priced at just $4,900 at home in a favorable spot against a Packers defense that only ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Rush EPA Allowed. He's coming off his best game of the year last week where he averaged 4.3 yards per attempt rushing for 69 yards and 1 touchdown.

Wide Receivers

The absence of Nico Collins this week increases the outlook for both Tank Dell and Noah Brown. Dell 6-114-2 and Brown 6-153-1 each dominated last week thanks in part due to C.J. Stroud's Week 9 domination. Dell saw five more targets than Brown and is clearly the better play but Brown's insanely cheap $3,700 price tag is tough to ignore. Just know Robert Woods is returning to the lineup this week, making this a bit murkier than we'd like.

Christian Kirk ranks on the Jaguars: Second in targets (60), second in receptions (43), first in receiving yards (520), and first in receiving touchdowns (3). Kirk is the most vital piece of Trevor Lawrence's receiving corps and will be needed at home in a very competitive game against the 49ers.

The absence of Tee Higgins improves the outlook of Tyler Boyd in such a fantasy-friendly matchup and he's priced affordably at just $4,600. He's at home against a Texans defense that only ranks 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed and C.J. Stroud is going to push the Bengals to keep passing the ball.

Kyler Murray is making his 2023 season debut this weekend and that improves the outlook of Marquise Brown, who is priced cheaply at just $5,200. Brown leads the Cardinals in targets (77), receptions (42), receiving yards (440), and receiving touchdowns (4). And the matchup is favorable at home against a Falcons defense that only ranks 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Diontae Johnson has seen 23 targets and caught 15 passes over his past two games. He seemingly comes with guaranteed volume and has a strong matchup at home against a Packers defense that only ranks 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz has scored a touchdown in four of his past five games and is coming off a 10-130-1 game. He'll benefit from the absence of Nico Collins and will be needed in a competitive game against a tough Bengals team.

Cade Otton is priced at just $3,400 and has a favorable matchup against a Titans defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. Otton's targets over his past three games: 6, 6, and 9.

Team Defenses

The Cowboys are the no-brainer top D/ST this week in all formats. They're 16.5-point home favorites and are going to be able to do whatever they want against a bad Giants team that will be starting Tommy DeVito at quarterback.

It's been a struggle for Jordan Love and the Packers. Green Bay's offense only ranks 23rd in EPA/Play. The Steelers get them at home.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow is healthy and officially all the way back. Over his past four games, he's averaged 283.3 passing yards (Would rank fourth if over full season) and 2.5 pass touchdowns (Would lead the NFL if over full season). He's at home against a Texans defense that only ranks 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed and C.J. Stroud will push him on the other side.

Coming off the bye, Jared Goff is a solid tournament play who will go overlooked by the masses. Goff has been very solid this season. He leads a Lions offense that ranks 11th in EPA/Play and eighth in Dropback EPA and ranks fifth in passing yards per game (271.8) and 13th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5). Goff is in the game with the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week and has a favorable matchup against a Chargers defense that only ranks 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Many will fade Dak Prescott because the Cowboys are 16.5-point home favorites and the expectation is he won't have to do much in order to win this game. While logical, that presents a tournament buying opportunity because there's a chance we see a domination stack form here. With the Cowboys likely dominating time of possession, Prescott could rack up the touchdown passes and fantasy points a la Week 8 when Prescott threw for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 43-20 victory over the Rams.

Geno Smith has been a disappointment this season. There's no way around that. But a home matchup against the Commanders is about as good of a get-right spot as there possibly could be. Washington only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed and just traded away both Montez Sweat and Chase Young two weeks ago. This is a good week to hop on Smith in tournaments.

Running Backs

This has to be the spot for Tony Pollard right!? The Cowboys are 16.5-point home favorites and Pollard ranks 11th in opportunities per game (19.4). Pollard hasn't scored since Week 1 but he put up two touchdowns in that one against these very same Giants. The Giants defense is awful as they rank 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Kenneth Walker has had two down games in a row and has been out-snapped by Zach Charbonnet in both. That could cause him to come in lower owned than he should at home in a favorable fantasy game against a Commanders defense that only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and that just traded away both Montez Sweat and Chase Young two weeks ago. Walker is still the Seahawks clear lead rusher as he has still out carried Charbonnet 17 to 9 over the past two weeks.

Rachaad White's $5,800 price tag doesn't make much sense. He ranks 14th in opportunities per game (18.3), is coming off an awesome performance where he turned 24 opportunities into 119 total yards and 2 touchdowns, and has a very favorable spot on tap at home against a Titans defense that only ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Rush EPA Allowed.

David Montgomery returns from injury this week to a favorable spot in the game with the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week. The Chargers defense has been strong against the run this year but Montgomery is the goal-line back and has double-digit touchdown upside every week he touches the field in Detroit's elite offense and behind their strong offensive line.

Matt LaFleur reported last week he was ready to unleash the healthier Aaron Jones and that resulted in Jones seeing 26 opportunities and turning them into 99 total yards and 1 touchdown. Jones is the engine of Green Bay's offense and he should be busy once again against a Steelers defense that only ranks 20th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Wide Receivers

Ja'Marr Chase's questionable status due to a back injury will keep his ownership percentage in check. If he suits up, he's worth leaning into despite the injury concerns as he'll benefit from the absence of Tee Higgins. Chase leads the NFL in targets per game (11.6) and he ranks second in receptions per game (8) and tenth in receiving yards per game (87.1). He's at home against a Texans defense that only ranks 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed and C.J. Stroud will push the Bengals passing game on the other side.

Many will fade the Cowboys passing game because the Cowboys are 16.5-point home favorites and the expectation is they won't have to do much in order to win this game. While logical, that presents a tournament buying opportunity because there's a chance we see a domination stack form here. With the Cowboys likely dominating time of possession, CeeDee Lamb could rack up the targets and fantasy points a la Week 8 when Lamb caught 12 of 14 targets for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 43-20 victory over the Rams. Lamb has been incredible over the past two weeks, totaling 30 targets, 23 catches, 349 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns.

Amon-Ra St. Brown and Keenan Allen are both awesome plays in the game with the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week. They're the Spiderman meme pointing back at each other. St. Brown ranks second in targets per game (11.1), first in receptions per game (8.1), and fifth in receiving yards per game (95). Meanwhile, Allen ranks seventh in targets per game (10.4), third in receptions per game (7.8), and eighth in receiving yards per game (90). The matchup favors St. Brown against a Chargers defense that only ranks 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Deebo Samuel has been removed from the injury report and is ready to roll. He and Brandon Aiyuk are both extremely attractive tournament options thanks to the stench the 49ers currently have on them. San Francisco lost three games in a row and then had their bye in Week 9. Recency bias will cause many to overlook this potent offense. Don't fall into the trap. The 49ers offense still ranks second in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA. Both are in play in a competitive and favorable fantasy game but Samuel is the first choice, oddly priced at just $6,200.

Terry McLaurin is the alpha in one of the highest pass volume offenses in the NFL. McLaurin ranks first on Washington in targets (71), receptions (47), and receiving yards (568). It's only a matter of time before he posts a huge stat line. Priced at just $5,800, this is a fun week to use him as the run back in a Seahawks at Commanders game stack.

Washington only ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed and just traded away both Montez Sweat and Chase Young two weeks ago. This is an incredible spot at home for the Seahawks passing game. Predicting who will find success out of this extremely talented wide receiver trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the real challenge. Routes run last week: Lockett 32, Metcalf 30, Smith-Njigba 30. Recommendation: Have exposure to all three if making multiple lineups. Roll with Lockett if only making one lineup.

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta plays in the game with the highest Over/Under (48.5) of the week and has a favorable matchup against a Chargers defense that only ranks 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed. And LaPorta's role has been incredible all season long. At the tight end position LaPorta ranks third in targets (59), fifth in receptions (43), sixth in receiving yards (434), and third in receiving touchdowns (4).

The Cowboys are 16.5-point home favorites and are going to be able to do whatever they want against a bad Giants team that will be starting Tommy DeVito at quarterback. Jake Ferguson has a favorable outlook here in a great matchup against a Giants defense that only ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

It might surprise you to learn it's not Calvin Ridley or Christian Kirk but actually Evan Engram who leads the Jaguars in both targets (61) and receptions (51). He's been quiet because he hasn't found pay dirt yet this season. He's a fun tournament play with positive touchdown regression coming sooner rather than later.

Trey McBride is priced at just $3,500. That's pretty wild two weeks after putting up a 10-95-1 line. Kyler Murray is now his quarterback and the matchup is favorable at home against a Falcons defense that only ranks 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Team Defenses

The Browns offensive line is banged up and the Ravens have the best defense in the NFL in terms of EPA/Play Allowed. Pivot off the Cowboys D/ST and roll with the Ravens D/ST in tournaments.

Will Levis has been solid so far and Tampa Bay's defense just got torched by C.J. Stroud. But Levis isn't Stroud. The Buccaneers are a sneaky tournament defense that could strike lightning in a bottle at home against a rookie in just his second NFL start.

Key Injuries

• Ja'Marr Chase Questionable
• Tee Higgins OUT - Upgrade Ja'Marr Chase (Questionable), Tyler Boyd, and Trenton Irwin
• Justin Jefferson OUT - Upgrade Jordan Addison
• Nico Collins OUT - Upgrade Tank Dell, Noah Brown, Robert Woods, and Dalton Schultz
• Zay Jones OUT - Upgrade Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and Evan Engram
• Treylon Burks OUT - Upgrade DeAndre Hopkins and Chigoziem Okonkwo
• Kirk Cousins OUT - Upgrade Joshua Dobbs
• Daniel Jones OUT - Upgrade Cowboys D/ST
• Darren Waller OUT - Upgrade Daniel Bellinger
• Zach Ertz OUT - Upgrade Trey McBride
• Kendre Miller OUT - Upgrade Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams
• Emari Demercado OUT - Upgrade James Conner (Questionable)
• T.J. Hockenson Questionable
• K.J. Osborn Questionable
• Curtis Samuel Questionable
• Michael Wilson Questionable
• Keaton Mitchell Questionable
• Curtis Samuel OUT - Upgrade Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Logan Thomas, and Jamison Crowder
• Dameon Pierce OUT - Upgrade Devin Singletary

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and/or Jaxon Smith-Njigba Runback Option: Terry McLaurin
• Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase (If active) Runback Options: Tank Dell and/or Dalton Schultz
• Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Jake Ferguson

Flag Plant Cash Plays

• Tank Dell
• Christian McCaffrey

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• Geno Smith
• Tony Pollard
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Tyler Lockett