Cracking DraftKings Week 1

Favorite Fantasy Game Environments

• Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers - Over/Under 50.5
• Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 45.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts - Over/Under 45.5
• Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints - Over/Under 41.5
• Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons - Over/Under 39.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Commanders at home vs. the Cardinals - Implied Team Total 22.8
• Ravens at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 26.8
• Broncos at home vs. the Raiders - Implied Team Total 24
• Vikings at home vs. the Buccaneers - Implied Team Total 25.8

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell is a dual-threat quarterback who threw for 92 touchdowns in three seasons at North Carolina and ran for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns in his final season in college. He costs only $4,900 yet gets to play at home against the projected worst team in the league this season. The Commanders are seven point favorites.

Anthony Richardson is 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds and tested as the most athletic quarterback in NFL history. He offers things that can't be taught: Size, athleticism, and flick of the wrist deep arm talent. The Colts and new head coach Shane Steichen have made it clear they're going full steam ahead with Richardson in a season they understand is all about getting Richardson as much experience as possible. Richardson costs just $5,600 and gets to play at home in the dome against a Jaguars defense that ranked 20th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA) Allowed, 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 24th in Success Rate. Richardson provides tantalizing rushing floor/ceiling.

Running Backs

Jeff Wilson will miss the beginning of the season which opens up more playing time and projected touches for Raheem Mostert. Rookie De'Von Achane looks ready to roll in his first career game but Mostert should be expected to lead this backfield in Week 1. Priced at only $5,400, Mostert gets to attack a Chargers run defense that ranked 27th in Rush EPA Allowed in 2022.

Dameon Pierce dominated first team snaps in the preseason and appears primed to handle a large workload in his second NFL season. Guaranteed volume and touches are what we're looking for in cash and Pierce appears to provide plenty while priced at just $5,800. This after Pierce already ranked eighth in the entire NFL as a rookie in opportunities per game (19.9).

Alvin Kamara is suspended and rookie Kendre Miller is Out for this game with a hamstring injury. The runout is pure for Jamaal Williams who projects as a workhorse priced at just $5,500 at home where the Saints are three point favorites against the Titans. But it must be pointed out Tennessee's defense ranked first in Rush EPA Allowed last year.

Rachaad White projects as the Buccaneers' workhorse running back, at least to begin the season. White is a good pass catcher, which puts in play to see a top five workload in Week 1. Priced at just $5,500, White's dual-threat game is tough to pass up against an average Vikings defense that ranked 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed, 14th in Rush EPA Allowed, and 22nd in Success Rate in 2022.

Expect the Commanders to have their way with the Cardinals. They're seven point home favorites. Antonio Gibson projects to split work with Brian Robinson but offers pass catching and touchdown upside in this favorable matchup. The Cardinals defense ranked 18th in EPA/Play Allowed, 23rd in Rush EPA Allowed, and 28th in Success Rate a season ago.

Here's a big dog to pay up for in cash. Derrick Henry led the entire NFL in opportunities per game (24.4) and total yards per game (121) last season. He gets a Saints defense that ranked 21st in Rush EPA Allowed a season ago.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin is off the injury report which puts a damper on Jahan Dotson's ceiling outcome possibilities but he's still a solid cash play in Week 1 priced at just $5,000. Dotson was an exciting prospect selected 16th overall by the Commanders just one year ago and produced as a rookie when on the field. By all accounts he's had an awesome offseason and gets to play at home against the projected worst team in the league this season. The Commanders are seven point favorites.

Marvin Mims Jr.is a fast receiver (4.38 40-yard dash) who produced all three seasons at Oklahoma. He posted lines of 37-610-9 as a freshman, 32-705-5 as a sophomore, and 54-1083-6 as a junior. He won deep on the outside and vertical from the slot and converted many deep targets into receptions with great ability at the catch point down the field. Priced at the $3,000 minimum, he's could be a solid cash play as the WR2 with Jerry Jeudy questionable due to injury at home against a Raiders defense that ranked 30th in EPA/Play Allowed, 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 28th in Success Rate last season. And Russell Wilson should have more time in the pocket with Raiders pass rusher Chandler Jones not expected to play this week.

Keenan Allen was injured in Week 1 last season and didn't return to full health and a full-time role until Week 11. From then on, he went scorched earth on the NFL, reminding everyone he's still an alpha-dominating target hog. Over that eight-game span, Allen averaged 10.4 targets (sixth most if over the full season), 7.5 receptions (second most if over the full season), 84.4 receiving yards (eighth most if over the full season), and 0.5 touchdowns. And even when including the two games Allen played minimally due to injury (and week 18), he still finished the season ranked as the WR12 in PPR fantasy points per game. The projected upgrade at offensive coordinator for the Chargers with Kellen Moore could pay dividends right out of the gate in the highest total (50.5) game of the week on the main slate. Allen is one of the best plays of the week against a Dolphins defense that ranked 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed, 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 16th in Success Rate in 2022.

Cooper Kupp won't play in Week 1, making him by far the most impactful injury absence to begin the season. Van Jefferson now becomes Matthew Stafford's #1 receiver and is priced at just $4,700. The Rams at Seahawks is one of the best fantasy games of the week and Jefferson has a good matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranked 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed last season. Jefferson was banged up in 2022 but he did put up 802 receiving yards in 2021. He's plenty capable.

Sean Payton's presence should increase the efficiency and production of the passing offense and Courtland Sutton could be the clear WR1 with Jerry Jeudy questionable. Priced at just $5,200, he's an awesome cash play at home against a Raiders defense that ranked 30th in EPA/Play Allowed, 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 28th in Success Rate last season. And Russell Wilson should have more time in the pocket with Raiders pass rusher Chandler Jones not expected to play this week.

The Jaguars are 4.5-point favorites despite being on the road against a Colts defense that ranked 16th in Dropback EPA Allowed and 22nd in Success Rate last year. Don't let Calvin Ridley's presence distract you from the fact Christian Kirk caught 84 passes for 1,108 yards and 8 touchdowns last year in his first season with Trevor Lawrence. Krik's passing volume shouldn't be affected much by Ridley, making him a solid cash game play priced at just $5,600.

Diontae Johnson ranked 15th in targets per game (8.6) last season. We're looking for reliable volume in cash and that's exactly what Johnson projects for priced at just $5,300 at home in a game against the 49ers the Steelers will have to throw more than usual in order to compete.

Tight Ends

D.J. Chark is Out and Adam Thielen is listed as questionable, making Hayden Hurst by far the most experienced pass catcher in the room for Bryce Young if Thielen isn't able to go. The projected starting wide receivers at that point would be rookie Jonathan Mingo playing in his first NFL regular season game and Terrace Marshall entering his third season. Hurst is just $3,000 and benefits from playing with Bryce Young, who is going to be very good right out of the gate. This is a fun fantasy game too in the dome at Atlanta.

Luke Musgrave was a full-time player for the Packers in the preseason and has a golden opportunity to flip the "Rookie tight ends don't produce" narrative on its head considering his biggest competition for playing time in the tight end room is fellow rookie, Tucker Kraft. It's tough to beat a full-time tight end priced at just $2,900 and that's even before considering Christian Watson is out and Romeo Doubs is questionable for this game. And just to provide some context on Musgrave as a talent: He is athletic and dynamic and could've even pushed to be selected in the first round had he not gotten injured after just two games last season. He was on his way to a huge junior season posting 11 catches for 169 yards and 1 touchdown in just those two contests.

Cooper Kupp won't play in Week 1, making him by far the most impactful injury absence to begin the season. Enter Tyler Higbee. The Rams at Seahawks is one of the best fantasy games of the week and Higbee has a good matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranked 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed last season. It would be a surprise if Higbee doesn't see five targets at the bare minimum.

The Bengals and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo are a tough matchup, especially for a quarterback in Deshaun Watson who struggled mightily in limited action last year. But David Njoku was essentially a full-time player when healthy last season and now enters year two as the go-to tight end in Kevin Stefanski's offense. Njoku offers bankable target volume at just $4,200.

We're getting a solid price tag of just $4,100 on a talent like Pat Freiermuth. The matchup isn't ideal here but the game environment against one of the best teams in football should create a passing script for Kenny Pickett. Freiermuth should see a healthy amount of targets in this scenario.

Team Defenses

This is the easiest cash D/ST play I can remember. The Commanders are somehow priced at just $2,800 while at home against the projected worst team in the league. They're seven point favorites against a Cardinals team that is refusing to name a starting quarterback between...checks notes...recently traded for Joshua Dobbs and rookie Clayton Tune.

The Bengals simply have one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL in Lou Anarumo. Led by his guidance, Cincinnati's defense finished 2022 first in the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed. They cost just $2,900 and it remains to be seen if we'll ever get 2020 Deshaun Watson again. If Watson looks anything like he did last year, the Bengals D/ST should be helping you cash in Week 1.

GPPs

Quarterbacks