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The Kupp Runneth Over

Are you surprised that Cooper Kupp is a consensus first-round pick and one of the first three receivers off the board in drafts, on average? You're not alone, as Kupp is becoming one of the most debated early-round players. Some consider him a player to avoid completely due to his cost and the changing circumstances. However, there are others who see him as a sensible choice to anchor your roster. While the concerns are valid, we firmly believe that Kupp will prove his worth as a first-round pick and is among a select group of receivers with the potential to finish at the top of the rankings.

An Up and Down Career

While many of us consider Cooper Kupp to be one of the most reliable players in the league, his performance has been inconsistent throughout his first six seasons.

Table: Cooper Kupp Career Statistics (2017-2022)

After establishing himself as a top fantasy option in 2019, high expectations surrounded Kupp heading into the 2020 season. However, the Rams' offense struggled as a whole, with Jared Goff's declining performance and difficulties in converting drives into touchdowns. Both Kupp and his teammate Robert Woods were limited to short-yardage work, resulting in a highly disappointing season for Kupp. It was later revealed that Kupp had played through two knee injuries—a de-gloving injury and bursitis. However, it's common for players to attribute poor seasons to injuries after the fact, making it questionable to trust in a bounceback.

But indeed, Kupp did bounce back. With the Rams trading Goff for Matthew Stafford, the offense transformed from good to fantastic, and Kupp not only reclaimed his WR1 status but also came close to rewriting the record books. He finished the 2021 season with a historic performance, recording 145 receptions, 1,947 yards, and 16 touchdowns. By any measure, his 2021 season was one for the history books.

Table: Best Fantasy Seasons, Wide Receiver (PPR Scoring, 1960-2022)

From Historic to Horrific

After a successful 2021 season where the Rams achieved a 12-5 record, won their division, and even won the Super Bowl, their fortunes took a dramatic turn for the worse in 2022. The team struggled, finishing with a disappointing 5-12 record and failing to make the playoffs. Almost everything that could have gone wrong seemed to go wrong:

• The offense, which had been ranked 7th in the previous season, plummeted to 27th.
• Quarterback Stafford missed half of the season.
• Running back Darrell Henderson also missed half of the season.
• Free agent wide receiver Allen Robinson struggled to find his rhythm and then missed the final seven games.
• Wide receiver Van Jefferson was sidelined for the first half of the season.
• The offensive line suffered from injuries and constant lineup changes, resulting in poor performance.
• And last but certainly not least, Kupp missed 8.5 games with a season-ending ankle injury that required surgery.

Injuries Matter

When it comes to evaluating an NFL team, injuries often play a crucial role. A team projected to perform averagely can become a playoff contender if they can stay healthy, while even the strongest teams can crumble under the weight of unfortunate injuries. According to Turf Show Times, a Rams-focused site, Los Angeles ranked second in adjusted games lost to injuries, with the offensive line suffering the most with 71.0 games lost. This not only marked the highest number last season but also represented the worst outcome for any NFL offensive line in the past two decades.

Please note that AGL stands for Adjusted Games Lost and was computed by Football Outsiders and represents the total number of games missed by offensive linemen due to injuries.

Per Game Metrics Tell the Real Tale

If you look at Cooper Kupp's player page, you'll see that he finished as the WR22 last year. As the consensus No. 1 receiver off the board, this may seem like a colossal disappointment. However, it's important to remember that he missed half the season, which significantly alters the context of his performance. When looking at per-game metrics, Kupp was once again the top fantasy receiver, poised to claim back-to-back titles as the best pass catcher in football.

The Rams Roster is Gutted – But That’s Okay

Last year’s debacle completely reshaped the team’s trajectory. Head coach Sean McVay briefly considered retiring to start a career in broadcasting but opted to return for the rebuild. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen was sent packing after one season. And the front office decided to push for a youth movement and jettisoned a litany of veterans.

• Starting guard David Edwards departed through free agency
• Wide receiver Allen Robinson was traded
• All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey was also traded
• Starting cornerbacks David Long and Troy Hill left in free agency
• Starting defensive linemen A'Shawn Robinson and Greg Gaines departed in free agency
• Linebackers Justin Hollins and Bobby Wagner were not retained
• Edge rusher Leonard Floyd was released
• Starting safety Nick Scott left in free agency

Reason #1: Healthier Offensive Line

No team can endure the level of injuries the Rams experienced last year. Even if the personnel remains relatively unchanged, having the starters healthy and building cohesion will provide a significant boost.

Reason #2: Matthew Stafford's Health

Stafford is the perfect executor of McVay’s offense, given his experience and aggressiveness as a downfield passer.

Reason #3: Cooper Kupp's Health

Kupp showed in 2021 and 2022 (before getting hurt) that he’s not only a great receiver, but he’s able to thrive regardless of opposing defenses keying on him.

Reason #4: Sean McVay's Motivation

Let's not forget how talented of a coach Sean McVay is. Despite a challenging season, he has a track record of success, with two Super Bowl appearances and one championship. McVay's determination and drive will fuel the team's efforts to bounce back.

Reason #5: Defensive Struggles and Increased Passing

With the defense likely to face difficulties, the Rams will find themselves needing to rely more on the passing game.

Reason #6: Emergence of Cam Akers as a Bell Cow

Late in the season, Cam Akers emerged as a reliable feature back for the Rams. His presence and success in the running game can provide balance and open up opportunities for the passing game.

Projections

Final Thoughts

Kupp's performance in 2021 was truly remarkable, and he was on track to replicate that greatness last year before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. Fortunately, he has fully recovered, and there is no reason to believe that his ankle issues will diminish his exceptional route-running ability, reliable hands, or chemistry with Matthew Stafford. Despite the Rams undergoing a rebuilding phase, they have kept Kupp, Stafford, and defensive tackle Aaron Donald as the cornerstones of the team.

Barring any further injuries, Kupp is virtually guaranteed to see an abundance of targets, potentially exceeding 180. Given his historical catch rate, this translates to fantasy greatness. While the number of touchdowns he will score remains uncertain, Kupp's impressive receiving yards and reception totals should be more than enough to secure a top-10 finish among fantasy receivers. When selecting a player in the first round, it is crucial to consider both a high floor and a high ceiling. In this regard, Kupp stands out as one of the safest and most explosive options in the league, alongside Justin Jefferson.