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The Carolina Panthers fired Matt Rhule during the 2022 season and hired Frank Reich as their new head coach. Here are some of the changes you can expect in 2023.
2022 Season Review
The Carolina offense was a difficult place for fantasy production in 2022. They ran 976 plays, the fewest in the league, 90.8 below the league average in offensive plays. Overall, the average was 63 per game, and Carolina averaged 57.4 per game.
Overall, the team produced 5.3 yards per play, just below the league average of 5.4 yards per play.
The overall number hides some critical efficiencies. The team ranked above average in yards per attempt (7.1) and yards per carry (4.6), a rare Simpson’s paradox because of the team’s run-heavy offense. The team ranked 29th in passing attempts (26.8) ahead of only Tennessee, Atlanta, and Chicago, and the team ranked 30th in designed passing rate (54.1%).
Overall, the team was extremely run-heavy. On early downs in neutral game scripts, Carolina threw on 51.5% of plays, which ranked 20th.
When adjusted for the game situation, Carolina’s play-calling decisions stick out. Overall, the team was 8% under passing rate expectations and only threw more after they rushed for a first down.
The team saw major changes during the season that changed the team’s decision-making. Head coach Matt Rhule was fired after Week 5, and McCaffrey was traded after Week 6.
In weeks 1 through 6, the team was game script neutral, throwing the percentage of the time the team was expected based on the game situation.
However, after Week 6, under interim head coach Steve Wilks, the offense was significantly more rush-centric. From Week 7 through Week 18, the team ran 12% more than expected based on the game script and did so in every possible game situation.
Also, the pacing was low, running every 28.9 seconds, the 23rd fastest offense.
2023 Expectations
Frank Reich has been more game-script-neutral in Indianapolis.
Despite a revolving door at quarterback during Reich’s tenure in Indianapolis, the team was only 2 percent under his expected passing frequency.
Besides five different Week 1 starting quarterbacks in five consecutive years, the most notable feature of Indianapolis’s offense was its flexibility. In the chart below, you can see the team’s early down passing rate fluctuate during Reich’s tenure in Indianapolis.
The team was well above average in 2018 (Andrew Luck), fell to near league bottom in 2019 (Jacoby Brissett), neutral in 2020 (Philip Rivers), and below average in 2020 (Carson Wentz).
This should leave Carolina in much better shape in 2022. The team needs a starting quarterback, but the team will have a more strategically optimized offense than the run-heavy game plan in 2022.
One of the key efficiencies for the Carolina offense will be volume. In Reich’s time in Indianapolis, the team ranked 3rd, 14th, 16th, and 22nd in plays.
2023 Offseason
From a fantasy football perspective, there are two key free agents for Carolina heading into the offseason:
- Sam Darnold
- DOnta Foreman
The team also has the following draft picks
- 9th
- 40th
- 62nd
- 94th
- 115th
- 133rd
- 148th
Beneficiaries
Overall, the offense should creep back toward average in play volume and passing rate, which should be much more friendly, and the biggest beneficiary of the hiring should be D.J. Moore.
In his career, Moore has 1.94 yards per route run, a 93rd percentile performance among wide receivers with 200 career routes. He has been targeted on 21.8% of his routes, an 89th-percentile performance among wide receivers with 200 career routes. Moore is WR20, according to fantasycalc.com.