Amon-Ra St. Brown has swiftly etched his name into the annals of NFL history, proudly standing among a distinguished group of 17 wide receivers who surpassed 250 targets and 2,000 yards in their first two seasons. This achievement is even more impressive considering he was not selected in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft, making him one of only two players on that list with lower draft capital. Despite a slow start to his rookie year and injury setbacks in his second year, St. Brown has emerged as one of the league's top receivers.

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In his rookie season, St. Brown didn't do much until Week 12, but he exploded in the latter part of the season. Some considered it a fluke, as late-round rookies often have short-lived success. However, his performance during that period was significant:

In a previous article, I analyzed his late-season success and expected him to take a backseat to his more talented teammates in his second year. I was quickly proven wrong.

Picking up where he left off in Year 2

In Year 2, before a Week 3 injury, St. Brown put up impressive numbers with 33 targets, 23 receptions, 253 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Only Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp averaged more fantasy points during that stretch. Despite being hampered by ankle and concussion injuries, he still managed to average 16.7 PPR points per game, ranking 10th among wide receivers. If we exclude the games where injuries limited him, his 19.7 points per game (12-game sample) would have made him the WR5 for the season, behind Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams.

What's even more remarkable is that he's only 23 years old. Despite the injuries, he became the fourth-youngest player to record 100 receptions in his first two seasons. Only Jefferson, Jaylen Waddle, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Larry Fitzgerald achieved a 100-catch season at a younger age.

When we compare St. Brown's start to other players in NFL history or his early-career benchmarks, we find ourselves looking at lists of all-time greats.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Archetype and Profile

Jordan McNamara recently wrote an article about predictive metrics to pay attention to among wide receivers. St. Brown excels in most of those metrics. Last year, only Tyreek Hill averaged more targets per route run among full-time players. St. Brown's 2.55 yards per route run ranked seventh among qualifying wide receivers, and his 27.8% target share was in the top 10.

However, there are some weaknesses in his analytical profile, such as target depth, air yards share, and yards per target. St. Brown isn't known for being a deep threat. The Lions initially used him that way in his rookie year, but he found more success on quicker, high-percentage routes. Last season, 72.7% of his routes were within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. He excels at gaining yards after the catch, with a true catch rate of 93%, frequently breaking tackles. The Lions incorporate St. Brown into their run game, utilizing him like the Rams use Cooper Kupp or the 49ers use Deebo Samuel.

Should we have quarterback concerns?

Jared Goff had a great year in 2022, putting up numbers we hadn't seen from him since his playoff runs with the Rams in 2017 and 2018. He ranked sixth in the league in both pass attempts and yards. However, his numbers were accumulated in a conservative manner. His average intended air yards per pass attempt of 7.0 ranked 24th among qualifying quarterbacks. He also had a relatively quick time to throw, ranking 23rd. This style of quarterback play actually benefits Amon-Ra St. Brown's outlook for 2023.

There were rumors during the offseason that the Lions were interested in drafting a rookie quarterback. A change at quarterback, especially with a young and inexperienced prospect, could have negatively affected St. Brown's production. However, Jared Goff has a history of supporting wide receivers who excel in the short passing game. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, who played under Goff with the Rams, had similar roles to St. Brown, receiving short targets and making plays after the catch. They consistently put up strong fantasy seasons when healthy, operating in the same areas of the field.

Target competition in Detroit

When we look at the current roster of the Lions, not much stands between St. Brown and another massive target share. With T.J. Hockenson no longer with the team, Sam LaPorta takes over as the top tight end. Historically, rookie tight ends struggle to receive significant target volume. Jameson Williams is suspended for the first six games of the season and will primarily serve as a downfield threat. This opens up more opportunities for St. Brown to work underneath. Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds, and Kalif Raymond round out the group of pass-catchers, but they are not particularly strong options.

So the only players standing in the way of St. Brown having an elite target share this year are:

• A rookie running back
• A rookie tight end
• A Year 2 wide receiver who had only one reception last year and is suspended for six games this year

Okay, I admit it. I'm intentionally downplaying the impact of these players to illustrate why St. Brown is likely to be at the top of the pecking order this year. St. Brown has already established himself as the team's top receiver, and it's unlikely that he will lose that title, especially in 2023, to this inexperienced group.

Jahmyr Gibbs has shown potential as a pass-catcher, consistently earning a minimum 11% target share during his three years at Alabama. However, his role wont be much different from the one left by DAndre Swift. Despite Swift receiving 110 targets over the last two seasons, St. Brown was still able to find opportunities.

Similarly, Sam LaPorta steps into the role previously occupied by T.J. Hockenson. During St. Brown's time in Detroit, Hockenson averaged 6.7 targets per game, a mark that only three rookie tight ends in NFL history have reached. The Lions are likely to ease LaPorta into his role as a rookie, keeping him below Hockensons previous target share.

And while Jameson Williams poses the biggest threat to St. Brown's elite target share, their profiles couldn't be more different. Last year, Williams had an average target depth of 16.4 yards downfield, while St. Brown averaged 6.3 yards of target depth. These receivers have clear and distinct roles that won't overlap. The Lions traded up to the 12th overall pick in the 2022 draft to select Williams, who excels at stretching defenses vertically. This means that St. Brown will have more space to operate near the line of scrimmage.

Overall, St. Brown faces less competition for targets in 2023 compared to the previous year, which sets the stage for an even higher ceiling. The Lions had 588 pass attempts last season, which ranked 10th in the NFL, providing ample volume to support multiple offensive weapons.

Final Thoughts

Amon-Ra St. Brown had some valid concerns heading into his second year. It was easy to dismiss his late-season production as a small sample size. However, after witnessing his ability to attract targets at an elite rate in 2022, it's evident that St. Brown has established himself as one of the league's top young talents. In games where he has been healthy, he has received nine or more targets in 17 out of his last 19 outings. This level of usage provides him with a high and reliable floor. Considering his healthy performance last year, he has the potential to finish as a top-three receiver. Feel confident drafting him in the second round and enjoy the benefits of having one of the league's most consistent wide receivers.

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