Four weeks into the season, we can start drawing some conclusions. Flukey Week 1s, followed by three weeks of lackluster production, are tough to ignore. Players bucking previous trends for a sustained period shouldn't be overlooked. Changes to surroundings are elevating some players to new heights. Let's look at who is trending up and down as we head into Week 5.
Three Up
QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
After a breakout 2022 season, many expected Justin Fields to build off that success in 2023. While the fantasy production hasn't been extraordinary, there is much to be excited about. He's the QB10 on the year and doing so with less than half of last year's per-game rushing output. His 335 passing yards on Sunday set a career-high. Through Fields' first two seasons, he eclipsed 200 passing yards in just 23% of his starts. He's hit that mark in three games so far this year. His pace of 3,659 passing yards and 30 touchdowns would be a considerable jump from last year's 2,242 and 17. Fields has historically been a slow starter. We saw a rough start to his rookie year before a late-season boom. Last year, he was fantasy's QB31 through Week 4 before being the QB3 from Week 5 onward. There's reason to think that despite a relatively slow start this year, Fields can return to form as an elite fantasy asset for the remainder of the season, especially as his schedule softens.
WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Rookie seasons from the likes of Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave have spoiled us in recent years. We used to yearn for the Year 3 wide receiver breakout, and that's exactly what we're seeing with Nico Collins this season. His metrics were desirable coming into the league: 6-foot-4 with a size-adjusted speed score inside the 90th percentile. But a turnstile of Davis Mills, Tyrod Taylor, Kyle Allen, and Jeff Driskel under center kept his fantasy production at bay. Collins is the biggest beneficiary as C.J. Stroud continues to cement himself as one of the league's best young quarterbacks. His 428 receiving yards are fifth-most in the league. Only Brandon Aiyuk, Tyreek Hill, and Justin Jefferson have better receiving grades at PFF. He's looking the part of a premier wide receiver in the league and can be counted on as a high-floor/high-ceiling WR2 every week.
RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
When the Lions jubilantly drafted Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round of this year's draft, the expectation was that David Montgomery would play second fiddle in the backfield. Montgomery was knocked out of Week 2's outing and missed Week 3, giving us a two-game sample with both running backs in total health. Montgomery has 3.5 times as many carries, nearly twice as many scrimmage yards, and is out-touching Gibbs in the red zone 15-to-2. Some analysts compared 2022's Detroit backfield with Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift to this year's new duo; those comps appear accurate. Gibbs gets occasional touches, mostly on passing downs, while Montgomery is the team's between-the-tackles and goal-line hammer. His usage in this prolific offense should easily push him into top-12 weekly consideration at the position.
Three Down
WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
It's probably too early to hit the panic button on Calvin Ridley's 2023 season, but the recent production has been concerning. Busted coverage in Sunday morning's London game resulted in a touchdown, saving his outing. But he's otherwise been a liability since his 11-target Week 1 explosion. Drops have plagued his season, as his 10.7% drop rate is fourth-highest among wide receivers. His targets have dipped in every game this year, bottoming out at just two in Week 4. If you believe in Ridley's talent, the good news is that this likely opens up a buy window. But with Christian Kirk returning to form as the dominant wide receiver we saw last year, Ridley may end up fighting for leftovers with Zay Jones and Evan Engram. Couple that concern with the apparent regression from Trevor Lawrence this year, and it's easy to understand why Ridley is trending down. Ridley is still relatively young, appears in good shape, and showcased his ceiling in Week 1. Let's hope he can shake the rust off, but it's tough to ignore the lack of production over the last three weeks.
RB Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts
With news that Jonathan Taylor plans to rejoin the Colts in practice this week, fantasy's per-game RB9 disappears into a cloud of dust. Not literally, of course. But Moss's output was heavily weighed by his 88.7% opportunity share, the highest of all running backs. That's not to say he was just a product of volume. Moss was breaking tackles, picking up yards after contact, juking defenders, catching passes, and doing everything you'd want to see from your team's RB1. But with Taylor's return looming, Moss goes from weekly top-10 running back to injury-away stash. If an impatient leaguemate drops him, pick him up and bench him. But he'd likely need an injury or a trade to Taylor to produce consistent production in fantasy again.
RB Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints
There was hope Kendre Miller would carve out a role in the Saints offense before Alvin Kamara returned in Week 4. A hamstring injury kept him out for the first two weeks. When he returned in Week 3, he was out-touched by Tony Jones Jr. but still managed to see nine carries and a target. In Week 4, he was an afterthought, seeing just one carry and one target to Kamara's 11 and 13. There's hope that Miller could see his role grow throughout the season. But for now, this appears to be Kamara's backfield. Miller is an exciting prospect and, like Moss, makes for a good injury-away stash. But dreams of him being the Mark Ingram to Kamara in this backfield are growing increasingly unlikely, and he can't be trusted in fantasy lineups until we see a significant change in usage.