Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania III tournament a couple of weeks ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks we are looking at NFL players and more specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com that was created by Sam Hoppen to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | JULY 11 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baker Mayfield | QB | CAR | 192.9 | 20.5 |
| 2 | Robbie Anderson | WR | CAR | 157.8 | 15.5 |
| 3 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 175.2 | 13.6 |
| 4 | Julio Jones | WR | FA | 191.0 | 7.5 |
| 5 | Terrace Marshall | WR | CAR | 205.7 | 7.1 |
| 6 | D.J. Moore | WR | CAR | 32.2 | 5.7 |
| 7 | Mark Ingram | RB | NO | 175.8 | 5.7 |
| 8 | Noah Fant | TE | SEA | 164.8 | 5.4 |
| 9 | Irv Smith | TE | MIN | 126.2 | 5.3 |
| 10 | Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | 134.0 | 4.7 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 07/4/2022-07/11/22***
The big news of the week was the Baker Mayfield trade to Carolina and it shows in the risers this week with four Panthers in the top six of the ADP risers in Baker Mayfield, Robbie Anderson, Terrace Marshall, and DJ Moore. Mayfield is up almost two full rounds after the trade and I think we will continue to see him rise at least another couple of rounds in the next week or two. His star wide receiver in DJ Moore will be the one you will want to stack with him, so naturally, his ADP price will follow suit and we could soon see him be at the Rounds 2/3 turn. Robbie Anderson and Terrace Marshall are the least expensive options when looking to stack Mayfield with a wide receiver and I believe both of their prices will also continue to rise so if you want exposure to the Panthers' passing game the time to buy is now over the next week. Underdog also released the Puppy 2 this week and we have seen 40,000+ teams already drafted in that tournament over the weekend. I mention this as this is a great way to understand that ADP is starting to shift more with the higher amount of drafts and we start to get a more concrete ADP and values are starting to dry up some.
It looks like the word is finally out on Nico Collins as a value pick as we see his ADP jump up over a round. He has been a major target for me in drafts all offseason as I was able to draft him in round 18 fairly easy over the last five months (Feb-June). Those days are over as he is now trending to settle into the 13-15 round at ADP. The last three players in the Top 10 are all tight ends: Noah Fant, Irv Smith, and Cole Kmet. These names are all interesting as they are younger players at the position and all have some breakout potential so I agree with their ADP trends rising. The two names that make little sense to me here are Julio Jones and Mark Ingram. I mean I understand why people want to believe in them as Jones isn't signed yet, and the hopes are to catch a break and he signs with a big-name team and quarterback. Ingram is basically rising only because of the uncertainty of the Alvin Kamara suspension situation. These are just two names that are outdated in my mind, and even if they are on an opening day roster, they offer so little upside and most likely won't make it until the end of the season on a roster. These are the opposite type of players that we want in the last rounds to help us win top-heavy tournaments at the end of the season.
Top 10 ADP Fallers
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