Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania III tournament a couple of weeks ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks we are looking at NFL players and more specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com that was created by Sam Hoppen to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | June 20 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jerick McKinnon | RB | KC | 198.6 | 17.3 |
| 2 | Sammy Watkins | WR | GB | 171.9 | 7.0 |
| 3 | Zamir White | RB | LV | 202.5 | 6.9 |
| 4 | Joshua Palmer | WR | LAC | 151.6 | 6.5 |
| 5 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 197.0 | 4.5 |
| 6 | Marvin Jones | WR | JAC | 164.5 | 3.7 |
| 7 | Darrel Williams | RB | ARI | 158.2 | 3.5 |
| 8 | Jahan Dotson | WR | WAS | 138.8 | 3.4 |
| 9 | Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | 160.7 | 3.4 |
| 10 | Tony Pollard | RB | DAL | 86.6 | 3.1 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 06/13/2022-06/20/22***
The biggest ADP riser this week is Jerick McKinnon who just re-signed with Kansas City for another season. If you are filling in rosters at the end of your drafts and looking for a running back he might fit nicely as an RB5 type on a Patrick Mahomes II type of build. I do suspect McKinnon to rise much like we have seen Darrel Williams ADP rise as Williams is 40.4 spots higher than McKinnon right now but in a week or two. I believe the two will be close to equal as they both have similar roles on offensive-minded teams. Sammy Watkins is the name on the list that I just can't get on board with why he is rising. I guess we are receiving positive reports on Watkins and that is why his ADP continues to rise but I feel he is an outlier in this top 10 list this week. I love to see the younger names in Joshua Palmer, Nico Collins, and the rookies Zamir White and Jahan Dotson on this list. Those are the type of names I want to invest in more so than an older player like Sammy Watkins that we already know what he is.
Daniel Jones' ADP was so low to open up the drafting season that his ADP can only climb as the positive reports continue to come in for the Giants. I also like Marvin Jones as a potential veteran leader in Jacksonville who still has some offensive production in the tank. Tony Pollard rounds out the top ten as he bumped up slightly by 3.1 spots. Pollard is an intriguing player in best ball each year and is always a candidate for the zero RB drafters. The top-10 risers all make sense to me this week. The only true avoid on the list is a player like Sammy Watkins who I don't think is worth the price at the moment as he is not a player that I can see that you will want by the playoff rounds start in Week 15.
Top 10 ADP Fallers
Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.
An ELITE subscription is required to access content for Best Ball leagues. If this league is not a Best Ball league, you can edit your leagues here.
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | June 20 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | 174.4 | 22.2 |
| 2 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | WR | CLE | 198.7 | 8.2 |
| 3 | David Bell | WR | CLE | 171.3 | 8.2 |
| 4 | Justyn Ross | WR | KC | 209.3 | 4.6 |
| 5 | William Fuller | WR | FA | 183.4 | 4.2 |
| 6 | Odell Beckham | WR | FA | 193.6 | 4.1 |
| 7 | Chris Godwin | WR | TB | 57.6 | 4.0 |
| 8 | James Robinson | RB | JAC | 171.5 | 3.8 |
| 9 | David Njoku | TE | CLE | 159.9 | 3.5 |
| 10 | Michael Thomas | WR | NO | 72.8 | 3.5 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 06/13/2022-06/20/22***
The Deshaun Watson effect is in full swing for the second straight week in the ADP fallers section. Watson dropped nearly another two rounds with all the negative news and speculation of a year long suspension. We have three other Browns players cracking the fallers list with Donovan Peoples-Jones, David Bell, and David Njoku. I feel like all three are perfect fine buys right now as they all will have a role in the offense no matter the starting quarterback. Njoku is my favorite out of the bunch and feels like a great buy right now. He now has the big money tied to his name and will be a nice option in the red zone.
We have four wide receivers in William Fuller, Odell Beckham, Chris Godwin, and Michael Thomas that are all coming off injury-riddled ends to their seasons. With only having 18 roster spots on Underdog you want to be very selective about how you invest your draft capital on those roster spots. Out of those four names I still want to get some exposure to Chris Godwin to recover and give me some strong performances down the stretch when he is all the way healthy. Michael Thomas right now has way too many red flags and his current ADP of 72.8 is just a high price to find out if he can find his way back to full health. Fuller and Beckham are fine last-round picks if they fall to you at the end of drafts but they are never players that I want to go out of my way to make sure they are on my teams. The other two names remaining in the Top 10 are Justyn Ross and James Robinson, and much like the four receivers battling back from injuries they come with plenty of concerns of their own.
Weekly News and Notes
- QB Deshaun Watson - The bad news continues for Watson and we still don't have any details on what type of suspension the NFL will hand out.
- WR Parris Campbell - Has been running with the first-team offense.
- QB Matt Ryan - Continues to gain praise from coaches and teammates.
- RB James Robinson - Not likely going to be ready for training camp next month.
- RB Eno Benjamin - Was one of the standouts at OTAs.
- TE Irv Smith - Was a full participant at Vikings minicamp
- RB James White - Is a candidate to start the regular season on the reserve/PUP list.
- WR Jahan Dotson - Has been "electric" in offseason practices.
- TE O.J. Howard - Has not looked like a dynamic pass catcher at Bills minicamp.
- WR Josh Palmer - Played with the first-team offense during minicamp.
- WR Odell Beckham - The Rams are optimistic that they can get a deal done with Beckham
- QB Mitchell Trubisky - Looks to be far ahead of Kenny Pickett so far this offseason.
- RB Jerick McKinnon - Signed a one-year contract with the Chiefs.
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania III in full swing. It has been live for two weeks and already is 16% full with over 76,000 entries already in play out of 451,200. Over the past week, BBM3 has gained over 16,000 entries and is up 3% on how much it has filled so far. If you are looking to play in this tournament, I wrote an article looking at the format and giving some tips and tricks when it comes to drafting that you can find here. Underdog also released The Puppy which is a $5 entry tournament that will have a total of 111,780 entries with a top prize of $75,000. It has filled up already and now we wait for The Puppy 2. Underdog released a Rookies and Sophomores 2 contest that is already 57% full and it is a $10 entry with $15,000 to first place.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and has a top prize of $250,000.00. This tournament is a total points tournament that has no playoffs and goes from Week 1 to Week 17. It is currently sitting at 3,240/55,008 full. Over the past week, 500 new entries have filled the contest. This particular contest looks like it will be headed to some potential overlay.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $5 entry Best Ball tournament this week. It has a $1 million to 1st place price but you will have to beat out 837,200 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 130,500/837,216 full. Draftkings also released a $3 tournament that has max entries of 20 and has a 1st place prize of $30,000. They have a total of seven Best Ball tournaments right now in their lobby with buy-ins at $3, $5, $15 (single entry), $20, $200 (single entry), $555, and $2,120.
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
| Best Ball Site Tournament |
Entry Fee | Prize Pool | Total Entries | Current Entries | Percent Full | Tourney Type | Rake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog BBM3 |
$25 | $10,000,000 | 451,200 | 76,000 | 16% | Playoffs | 11.3% |
| Underdog Rookies + Sophomores 2 |
$10 | $75,000 | 8,400 | 4,800 | 57% | Playoffs | 10.7% |
| Underdog Puppy |
$5 | $500,000 | 111,780 | 111,780 | 100% | Playoffs | 10.5% |
| Drafters Million BB Championship |
$20 | $1,000,000 | 55,008 | 3,240 | 5.9% | Total Points | 9.10% |
| DraftKings $3.5M Millionaire |
$5 | $3,500,000 | 837,216 | 130,530 | 15.6% | Playoffs | 16.40% |
| DraftKings Play-Action (20 Max) |
$3 | $300,000 | 116,640 | 29,475 | 25.3% | Playoffs | 14.26% |
| DraftKings Shovel Pass |
$20 | $300,000 | 17,280 | 3,911 | 22.6% | Playoffs | 13.19% |
| DraftKings Bubble Screen (Single-Entry) |
$15 | $50,000 | 3888 | 1,340 | 34.5% | Playoffs | 14.26% |
| DraftKings Double Spy (Single-Entry) |
$200 | $200,000 | 1080 | 68 | 6.3% | Playoffs | 7.41% |
| DraftKings Playmaker |
$555 | $1,000,000 | 1980 | 50 | 2.5% | Playoffs | 9.00% |
| DraftKings Luxury Box |
$2120 | $144,000 | 72 | 1 | 1.4% | Playoffs | 5.70% |
| FFPC Best Ball Tournament |
$125 | $1,094,000 | 9072 | 1,089 | 12.0% | Playoffs | 3.53% |
| FFPC - Superflex Best Ball Tournament |
$35 | $163,875 | 4752 | 1,574 | 33.1% | Playoffs | 1.47% |
| BestBall10s BB10s Championship |
$10 | ? | 4500 | ? | ? | Total Points | ? |
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2022. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts on there daily and am always happy to answer questions on there via replies or DMs, you can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!