Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania III tournament a couple of weeks ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks we are looking at NFL players and more specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com that was created by Sam Hoppen to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | June 6 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrel Williams | RB | ARI | 169.7 | 14.0 |
| 2 | Parris Campbell | WR | IND | 201.0 | 10.7 |
| 3 | Kadarius Toney | WR | NYG | 98.9 | 8.3 |
| 4 | Jarvis Landry | WR | NO | 127.2 | 7.1 |
| 5 | Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 40.7 | 6.8 |
| 6 | Curtis Samuel | WR | WAS | 174.2 | 6.5 |
| 7 | Robby Anderson | WR | CAR | 166.5 | 6.4 |
| 8 | Jalen Tolbert | WR | DAL | 145.2 | 5.8 |
| 9 | Jerry Jeudy | WR | DEN | 41.0 | 5.7 |
| 10 | Trey Lance | QB | SF | 91.3 | 5.7 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 05/30/2022-06/06/22***
Darrel Williams is back again at the top of the ADP Risers for the second week in a row. His ADP now sits at 169.7 as his ADP has risen by nearly four rounds over the last two weeks. If you are looking to help fill out your rosters it might make sense to add Williams as your RB5-RB6 type but if he continues to rise at ADP he might start being overvalued. Kadarius Toney and Jarvis Landry are two names at the top here that I love at their ADP even at a rising ADP. Both players are still value picks and offer lots of upside as they both have the potential to be the top receiving targets on both of their offenses. We see eight of the players on the riser list all being at the wide receiver position. Parris Campbell received positive health news as he was at OTAs this past week catching passes from Matt Ryan. Any news that is positive for a young player like Campbell will cause an increase in ADP.
We see the Denver receivers in Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy both in the Top 10 this week. These two have been rising ever since Russell Wilson was traded to Denver, and ADP 50.0 seemed to be the peak. But both are now at 40.7 and 41.0. They have to be fades at that current price and looking to a player like Tim Patrick might be the buy right now. Curtis Samuel rising is based on a few positive comments from coaches, but we still might want a full bill of health before we increase our Samuel exposure. I have liked Robby Anderson's ADP most of this offseason, and now at 166.5 ADP, it makes some sense. He is coming off an off-year, but he still looks to be the second wide receiver on the depth chart with few challengers behind him. He is a great draft pick later in drafts to fill in your WR construction.
Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.
An ELITE subscription is required to access content for Best Ball leagues. If this league is not a Best Ball league, you can edit your leagues here.
Top 10 ADP Fallers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | June 6 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sammy Watkins | WR | GB | 184.7 | 10.5 |
| 2 | Logan Thomas | TE | WAS | 194.3 | 8.5 |
| 3 | Raheem Mostert | RB | MIA | 186.8 | 7.7 |
| 4 | Will Fuller | WR | FA | 174.9 | 7.1 |
| 5 | Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | 121.0 | 7.0 |
| 6 | James Robinson | RB | JAC | 162.8 | 6.7 |
| 7 | Tyler Allgeier | RB | ATL | 152.8 | 6.6 |
| 8 | Cordarrelle Patterson | RB | ATL | 92.8 | 5.9 |
| 9 | Zach Wilson | QB | NYJ | 166.4 | 5.7 |
| 10 | Christian Watson | WR | GB | 107.8 | 5.1 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 05/30/2022-06/06/22***
I love looking at the ADP fallers each week and comparing them with my own personal draft picks and ownership. Players like Sammy Watkins, Logan Thomas, Raheem Mostert, William Fuller, Deshaun Watson, and James Robinson all have so many question marks when it comes to age, health, suspension, and opportunity. I can see taking a few shots on Watson and Fuller because of the upside we have seen in the past but these are guys that we really do not want to reach on at all at ADP. I can see maybe Watson makes some sense in the tournaments if he was to only get suspended for six games or less. Fuller will likely sign with someone and you will see his ADP rise a round or two, but the fact that his name is still floating out there makes me think he is not yet close to being healthy. If NFL teams aren't ready to gamble on him yet, why gamble on him in Best Ball?
Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson both falling makes me want to start buying into both of them. There is a path for both of them to be a big part of the offense. Rumors early were that Patterson was going to see more time at wide receiver this year, and if that is the case, that would open up more touches to others in the Falcons backfield and insert Allgeier as the guy I want to take some shots on. Zach Wilson's fall at ADP remains funny to me as it is solely based on him having a bad day at OTAs. The Jets have invested in Wilson personally and also have loaded up the offense specifically for him. He remains a solid buy at his falling ADP and makes for a great QB2 when you draft a high-end QB1 and also is a nice QB3 if he falls to round 17 or 18. Christian Watson falling is interesting as sometimes we see rookies shift back and forth at ADP. Watson could swing back with one good practice and comments from coaches.
Weekly News and Notes
- WR Jerry Jeudy - Limped off of practice with an apparent groin injury.
- QB Deshaun Watson - Continues to be in the news for all the wrong reasons. Still no suspension details.
- TE Rob Gronkowski - Bucs are optimistic that Gronkowski will re-sign for 2022.
- RB DErnest Johnson - Browns re-signed Johnson to a 1-year contract.
- RB James Robinson - Has resumed running on the field. On track for early training camp return.
- QB Zach Wilson - Has been struggling with accuracy in Jets OTAs. This fluff news will likely send his ADP to fall.
- RB Gus Edwards - Remains sidelined and was held out of Ravens voluntary OTAs.
- QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - Has announced his retirement.
- RB Travis Etienne - Looked like his old self from an explosiveness standpoint according to JaguarReport's John Shipley.
- WR Deebo Samuel - Looks to be a part of the 49ers, and the offseason back and forth with the team is mended.
- WR Parris Campbell - is at OTAs and catching passes from Matt Ryan. The fact that he is healthy is the news we want to hear.
- WR Albert Wilson - Signed with the Vikings.
- WR Jamal Agnew - Might not be ready for the start of the season.
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania III in full swing. It has been live for two weeks and already is 11% full with over 52,000 entries already in play out of 451,200. Over the past week, BBM3 has gained over 7,000 entries and is up 1% on how much it has filled so far. If you are looking to play in this tournament, I wrote an article looking at the format and giving some tips and tricks when it comes to drafting that you can find here. The big news of the week at Underdog was the release of The Puppy which is a $5 entry tournament that will have a total of 111,780 entries. It already has 72,000 entries and is 64% full. The top prize in The Puppy is $75,000.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and has a top prize of $250,000.00. This tournament is a total points tournament that has no playoffs and goes from Week 1 to Week 17. It is currently sitting at 2,340/55,008 full. Over the past week, 400 new entries have filled the contest. This particular contest looks like it will be headed to some potential overlay.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $5 entry Best Ball tournament this week. It has a $1 million to 1st place price but you will have to beat out 837,200 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 80,300/837,216 full. Draftkings also released a $3 tournament that has max entries of 20 and has a 1st place prize of $30,000. They have a total of seven Best Ball tournaments right now in their lobby with buy-ins at $3, $5, $15 (single entry), $20, $200 (single entry), $555, and $2,120.
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2022. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts on there daily and am always happy to answer questions on there via replies or DMs, you can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!