Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania III tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com that was created by Sam Hoppen to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Top 10 ADP Risers
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | JULY 18 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | 182.7 | 19.9 |
| 2 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 163.8 | 7.9 |
| 3 | Chase Edmonds | RB | MIA | 100.8 | 7.0 |
| 4 | Jalen Tolbert | WR | DAL | 144.0 | 7.0 |
| 5 | Robby Anderson | WR | CAR | 149.2 | 6.5 |
| 6 | David Njoku | TE | CLE | 167.1 | 6.5 |
| 7 | Rashaad Penny | RB | SEA | 97.3 | 5.9 |
| 8 | Chris Olave | WR | NO | 92.2 | 5.1 |
| 9 | Kadarius Toney | WR | NYG | 83.9 | 3.5 |
| 10 | Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | 131.1 | 3.2 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 07/11/2022-07/18/22***
The back and forth on the Deshaun Watson news has been constant all offseason, and because of that, we have seen his name shift back and forth on both the risers and the fallers top 10 lists all summer. With the Puppy 2 now full and over 111,780 teams drafted in that single contest, we are starting to get much sharper ADP as players are starting to settle in at their true cost at ADP. This week's top ten list of risers has some strong names in it, and it starts with the wide receiver position with Nico Collins, Jalen Tolbert, Robby Anderson, Chris Olave, and Kadarius Toney. We are looking at a couple of rookies in Tolbert and Olave, a couple of sophomores in Collins and Toney, and a veteran in Robby Anderson. It is easy to tell a positive story for all five of these players as they are all firmly on their teams' depth chart at the position and have the potential to outperform their ADP just based on opportunity. Rookies will always go up and down the ADP scale, especially before we see much footage of them actually on the field. We are basing most of our thoughts on them on the small information we get from the media and team beat writers. It is no different here with Tolbert getting some buzz as a Week 1 starter and Olave getting some buzz as we wait on Michael Thomas' health news. Robby Anderson is seeing an increase with the simple fact that the Panthers traded for Baker Mayfield, and we predict that the offense will get an upgrade.
We also see some nice names in Rashaad Penny and Chase Edmonds on this list this week as Penny is getting some positive talk as the lead back in Seattle and is in line for 20+ touches a game. We are constantly looking for volume when we are drafting for fantasy football, and getting that in words for Penny is an instant bump to his ADP. Edmonds is interesting as he is on a new team and is coming off a year of injuries. Zero RB drafters are always looking to target a back like Edmonds in hopes of a more secure or breakout type of year coming. The other position that finds its way into the risers this week is tight end David Njoku and Cole Kmet are the names here. Both have similar expectations as break-out type of players for 2022. I feel like this week's top ten list of risers is all solid and don't see a name that I don't think belongs here, so I would bump each of these names up my rankings in hopes to gain some ownership over the next couple of weeks.
Top 10 ADP Fallers
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| Rank | Player | Position | Team | JULY 18 ADP | ADP Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Ingram | RB | NO | 183.7 | 7.3 |
| 2 | Kenneth Walker | RB | SEA | 107.6 | 7.2 |
| 3 | Cordarrelle Patterson | RB | ATL | 110.0 | 5.9 |
| 4 | Robert Tonyan Jr | TE | GB | 149.3 | 4.5 |
| 5 | Curtis Samuel | WR | WAS | 190.5 | 4.4 |
| 6 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB | KC | 88.5 | 4.2 |
| 7 | Zach Wilson | QB | NYJ | 175.2 | 3.7 |
| 8 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | 190.1 | 3.4 |
| 9 | Alexander Mattison | RB | MIN | 125.7 | 3.3 |
| 10 | Carson Wentz | QB | WAS | 201.4 | 2.9 |
***These ten ADP fallers are based on the dates 07/11/2022-07/18/22***
Mark Ingram leads the list this week as the speculation on Alvin Kamara not getting a suspension this year is now out there. Ingram was getting pushed up the board because we thought Kamara was set to miss 4-6 games. Kenneth Walker is next on the list this week, and this comes on the reports that Rashaad Penny is set to be the teams go-to running back. Although I understand the Walker pushback based on this news. I also feel like he is still a great add for the Underdog playoff rounds in these tournaments as opportunities will grow for him as the season goes on. The third biggest ADP faller this week is Cordarrelle Patterson and I am not seeing any big news items on why this would be the case. I think with Patterson it is more just the fact that he plays on a bad offense and people are counting on negative regression with him in 2022.
From players 4-10 on the list the amount of falling is only from 4.5 to 2.9 spots so it is really hard not to still like these players in this range. If I had to pick one player to be out on, it might be Robert Tonyan Jr. He is still coming back from injury, and I like many of the other tight ends at a similar ADP to him right now in my drafts. Players like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zach Wilson, Jared Goff, Alexander Mattison, and Carson Wentz all find their way into my draft strategies and are players that all have important roles on their teams. Those are players that I always want to be drafting in best ball and am not afraid to buy the discount.
Weekly News and Notes
- RB James White - White was spotted walking with what appeared to be an "uncomfortable gait". He remains a PUP candidate to start the season.
- RB Rashaad Penny - Is expected to be the Seahawks' "primary back" when the season starts.
- QB Deshaun Watson - Speculation remains high that a decision on suspension length is coming in the next few weeks.
- WR Darnell Mooney - Played in the low 170-pound range last year and is up to 183 pounds this offseason.
- WR Jalen Tolbert - Projects to be a Week 1 starter as he has looked good working with the first team at the end of minicamp.
- WR N'Keal Harry - Was traded to the Chicago Bears for a seventh-round pick in 2024.
- TE Rob Gronkowski - Continues to say "I'm done with football" at a charity event in Boston.
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - The biggest Best Ball tournament in history is currently live on Underdog with Best Ball Mania III in full swing. It has been live for two weeks and already is 30% full with over 135,800 entries already in play out of 451,200. Over the past week, BBM3 has gained over 14,000 entries and is up 4% on how much it has filled so far. If you are looking to play in this tournament, I wrote an article looking at the format and giving some tips and tricks when it comes to drafting that you can find here. Underdog also released The Puppy 2 which is a $5 entry tournament that will have a total of 111,780 entries with a top prize of $75,000 and is now full. The newest release was The Great Dane which is a $1,000 entry fee that focuses more on the high-stakes players and has a $20,000 top prize and $100,000 prize pool.
Drafters - Drafters released a $1 Million Best Ball tournament that is a $20 entry fee and has a top prize of $250,000.00. This tournament is a total points tournament that has no playoffs and goes from Week 1 to Week 17. It is currently sitting at 5,630/55,008 full. Over the past week, 600 new entries have filled the contest. This particular contest looks like it will be headed to some potential overlay. Drafters also released a $2.22 buy-in tournament that has a $50,000 prize pool with $10,000 to 1st place, which is 7,000/25,008 full.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $5 entry Best Ball tournament this week. It has a $1 million to 1st place price, but you will have to beat out 837,200 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 279,500/837,216 full. Draftkings also released a $3 tournament that has max entries of 20 and has a 1st place prize of $30,000. They have a total of seven Best Ball tournaments right now in their lobby with buy-ins at $3, $5, $15 (single entry), $20, $200 (single entry), $555, and $2,120.
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, BestBall10s
| Best Ball Site Tournament |
Entry Fee | Prize Pool | Total Entries | Current Entries | Percent Full | Tourney Type | Rake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog BBM3 |
$25 | $10,000,000 | 451,200 | 135,800 | 30% | Playoffs | 11.3% |
| Underdog The Bulldog |
$500 | $100,000 | 216 | 216 | 100% | Playoffs | 7.4% |
| Underdog The Great Dane |
$1,000 | $100,000 | 108 | 26 | 24% | Playoffs | 7.4% |
| Underdog Rookies + Sophomores 2 |
$10 | $75,000 | 8,400 | 8,400 | 100% | Playoffs | 10.7% |
| Underdog Puppy 2 |
$5 | $500,000 | 111,780 | 111,780 | 100% | Playoffs | 10.5% |
| Underdog The Puppy but Superflex |
$5 | $250,000 | 55,944 | 55,944 | 100% | Playoffs | 10.6% |
| Drafters Million BB Championship |
$20 | $1,000,000 | 55,008 | 5,627 | 10.2% | Total Points | 9.10% |
| Drafters Mini Best Ball Championship |
$2.22 | $50,000 | 25,008 | 7,000 | 28.0% | Total Points | 11.0% |
| DraftKings $3.5M Millionaire |
$5 | $3,500,000 | 837,216 | 279,400 | 33.4% | Playoffs | 16.40% |
| DraftKings Play-Action (20 Max) |
$3 | $300,000 | 116,640 | 64,132 | 55.0% | Playoffs | 14.26% |
| DraftKings Shovel Pass |
$20 | $300,000 | 17,280 | 11,763 | 68.1% | Playoffs | 13.19% |
| DraftKings Bubble Screen (Single-Entry) |
$15 | $50,000 | 3888 | 3,312 | 85.2% | Playoffs | 14.26% |
| DraftKings Fair Catch (Single-Entry) |
$12 | $100,000 | 9,504 | 1,340 | 14.1% | Playoffs | 14.0% |
| DraftKings Double Spy (Single-Entry) |
$200 | $200,000 | 1080 | 125 | 11.6% | Playoffs | 7.41% |
| DraftKings Playmaker |
$555 | $1,000,000 | 1980 | 136 | 6.9% | Playoffs | 9.00% |
| DraftKings Luxury Box |
$2120 | $144,000 | 72 | 1 | 1.4% | Playoffs | 5.70% |
| DraftKings Touchdown Dance |
$25 | $500,000 | 23,328 | 986 | 4.2% | Playoffs | 16.6% |
| FFPC Best Ball Tournament |
$125 | $1,094,000 | 9072 | 2,167 | 23.9% | Playoffs | 3.53% |
| FFPC - Superflex Best Ball Tournament |
$35 | $163,875 | 4752 | 2,796 | 58.8% | Playoffs | 1.47% |
| BestBall10s BB10s Championship |
$10 | ? | 4500 | ? | ? | Total Points | ? |
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2022. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs, you can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania III contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!