Tyreek Hill: The Next Wide Back

Photo: USA Today Sports

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With 1:01 left, Oklahoma only needed a punt, then hold Oklahoma State out of the endzone to secure their 11th win in 12 years in the storied Bedlam rivalry. Jed Barnett skied a punt from the 50-yard line, the coverage team positioned themselves around the eight-yard line, and then Tyreek Hill happened. Ninety-two yards and an overtime period later, the Cowboys had executed a major upset and earned bowl eligibility. The legend of the Cheetah was born.

Most NFL fans know Hill as one of the most dominant deep threats in the league, striking fear with his speed and proving a lethal connection with Patrick Mahomes II. For many, their first impression of him as a fantasy contributor was breaking defenses vertically and finishing in the top 10 yards per reception in his second and third seasons. But his career at Oklahoma State saw a vastly different skill set on display. His college stat line:

Tyreek Hill was…a running back?

And a good one. In college, Hill was 247's top JUCO RB prospect. Hill was more than a receiver who took an occasional reverse; he was a legitimate all-purpose weapon who routinely took snaps in the I formation.

The standard narrative fades Hill on Tua Tagovailoa's lack of deep ball prowess. The reality of this skillset and experience casts a much different light on his pairing with Mike McDaniel's creative run game usage. But is there a path to realizing his high fantasy valuation now that he has ended his partnership with Mahomes?

"Use Him Like Deebo"

Deebo Samuel's dual-threat usage was a central talking point coming out of the 2021 season. As the focal point of Mike McDaniel's 49ers' offense, Samuel posted 1,405 receiving yards and 365 rushing yards to finish as the overall WR3. This breakout inspired the hunt for the next marginalized player who could spike to fantasy utility via increased involvement. "Use him like Deebo" became a battle cry for every favorite dynasty roster-stashed wide receiver. That mindset ignores two fundamental elements: Deebo Samuel is a unique talent, and The Wide Back is not new.

A true revelation in the NFL game, the dual hybrid position has long been a staple of college spread option offenses. The conceptual element forces defenses to play unbalanced, turning traditional spread offenses countered by a nickel or dime package into heavy sets a nickel defense is ill-equipped to counter. Samuel would start lining up as a conventional wide receiver before motioning into the backfield and serving as a tailback in a wide zone concept.

Since 2017 as the 49ers' run game coordinator, McDaniel has innovated, first shuffling a backfield to meet situational football and now mainstreaming the hybrid element. Now with the Dolphins, he finds himself in familiar territory, lacking a clear top running back and likely to use a situational approach. He has one player who matches the talent level of Samuel and provides experience working out of the backfield: Tyreek Hill.

But how much does it matter for fantasy football?

Samuel's 365 yards and eight rushing touchdowns added 84 points to his season total, approximately five additional points per game. And Samuel accomplished most of that in just eight games. Those five extra rushing points per game were the difference between placing WR3 and WR12 in PPR per game. The difference in standard is even more dramatic as Samuel (16.4), and Cooper Kupp (17.3) were the only receivers over 14 PPG. Samuel's touchdown rate is likely to regress, but even if Hill can add 200 yards on the ground and four touchdowns, those 2.5 rushing points would mean he would only need to score as a low-end WR2 through the passing game to deliver on his ADP as Underdog overall WR9.

One last point. A cynic would say, "but Samuel is 30 lbs heavier than Hill". Hill is the same size as Nyheim Hines, Curtis Samuel, and Eric Metcalf, players who have all excelled in both elements. Given his experience, athleticism, and body control, one can assume he knows how to take care of himself on an NFL field.

The Quarterback Question

Tua Tagovailoa is not Patrick Mahomes II. Many will stop their analysis at that point. But Hill is no longer functioning in an Andy Reid offense. This offense is Mike McDaniel's scheme, and last year McDaniel allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to support the overall WR3 in Samuel, overall TE4 in George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, who started the year off in Kyle Shanahan's doghouse but finished as WR16 after week 8.

Tua Tagovailoa does not need to be Patrick Mahomes II to support multiple fantasy weapons; he needs to be Jimmy Garoppolo.

The numbers already bear an interesting parallel:

Efficiency stats between the two are dead on, with passing yards as the primary difference. A significant factor was yards after the catch per completion, where Garoppolo placed 1st at 6.5 and Tagovailoa was 4.6. That YAC difference made up almost all of the yards, and it is easy to understand when Garoppolo was outfitted with three of the best YAC receivers while the Dolphins' DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki were outside of the top 150 in YAC.

Despite all his concerns, Tagovailoa is a strong distributor and should continue to put his receivers in a position to succeed. Check out FootballGuys' Kevin Coleman's spotlight for more on his potential.

Backfield Uncertainty

McDaniel's hot hand usage has previously been discussed, but the Dolphins' current stable of backs is uncertain. The top options: Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel, Raheem Mostert, and Myles Gaskin boast three seasons over 174 carries between the entire group. They all belong to Michel, who has only exceeded 210 carries once with a 247-912 season in 2019.

On the flip side, the 49ers' offense was one of the heaviest run teams, placing 6th with 498 carries. The Dolphins had one of the highest personnel turnovers in the league. They added pieces to the offensive line (most notably LT Terron Armstead) and brought in Edmonds, Mostert, Michel, Hill, and Cedrick Wilson Jr. They are all threats with the ball in their hands. Increased emphasis on the run game to ease Tagovailoa's development is likely a safe assumption, and there are a lot of unaccounted-for attempts sitting in this offense.

All of this sets the stage to put the team's most explosive weapon in a position to accumulate opportunities through creative usage.

PROJECTIONS AND STATS

Final Thoughts

Projecting meaningful run game usage dramatically alters the potential ceiling of Hill and the Dolphins receiving weapons as a whole. Given Hill and McDaniel's history of success with this scheme development and the wide-open backfield, there is reason to be bullish that Hill will see this involvement. As outlined here, the recent wide receiver movement has granted reason to buy in on receivers on new teams. Hill is one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL and is still in his prime. He holds WR1 overall within his range of outcomes and should be drafted aggressively at an ADP he has outperformed in the past two seasons.

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